By-elections - November 26th

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[greenhert]

Nov 26, 2015 23:32:45 GMT linders said:

Nov 26, 2015 23:31:14 GMT maxque said:

Carnforth:

Con 54.9% (+6.9)
Lab 32.3% (-2.8)
Grn 5.2% (-11.7)
LD 3.8% (+3.8)
UKIP 3.7% (+3.7)

Top vote or average vote?

Top vote. Vote shares should generally be calculated by average vote-in Carnforth's case vote share based on average vote would in 2015 have been: Con 46.5%, Lab 35.5%, Green 18%.

[maxque]

Rosyth turnout is 24.66%.

[maxque]

Rosyth is an SNP hold.

[carlton43]

Nov 26, 2015 23:18:40 GMT john07 said:

Nov 26, 2015 23:14:19 GMT brianj said:

So Wales is now One Nation, Underwood.

It should be Under milk wood!

Wrong end.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

[maxque]

24.06% turnout in Dunfermline North.

[maxque]

According to David Coburn, UKIP beated Greens and was 7 votes behind LDs in Rosyth.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Nov 26, 2015 23:33:45 GMT maxque said:

From Britain Elects (with correct swings)

Bettws (Newport) result:
IND: 31.8%
LAB: 27.9% (-10.3)
IND: 26.1%
CON: 10.8% (+10.8)
GRN: 2.7% (+2.7)
LDEM: 0.7% (+0.7)

Order of the Independents appears to be that Janet Cleverly won; Jason Jordan was the third place.

[maxque]

In Bettws, the Independent winner is Janet Cleverly.

[maxque]

SNP hold in Dunfermline North.

[finsobruce]

Nov 26, 2015 23:51:30 GMT maxque said:

In Bettws, the Independent winner is Janet Cleverly.

So among the winners tonight one did it Softly and another did it Cleverly....

[Davıd Boothroyd]

FIFE Dunfermline North

Ian Ferguson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 1,056
Joe Long (Scottish Labour Party) 719
James Reekie (Scottish Conservative and Unionist Party) 304
James Calder (Scottish LIberal Democrats) 230
Lewis Alan Campbell (Scottish Green Party) 63
Chloanne Dodds (UKIP) 58

[Deleted]

Nov 26, 2015 23:13:23 GMT andrea said:

Pwllheli South


Underwood, Hefin Not noted 269 45.44%
Williams, Alan Plaid Cymru 168 28.38%
Parry, Michael Independent 106 17.91%
Pollitt, Peta Merrian The Voice of Gwynedd 49 8.28%

A bit disappointing for us given two good results in Gwynedd last week, but a shocker for Llais Gwynedd -  8% in a seat they were defending.  Uncertain times for them

[Davıd Boothroyd]

FIFE Rosyth

Sharon Wilson (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 1,214
Vikki Fairweather (Scottish Labour Party) 926
David Ross (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 245
Matthew Hall (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 97
Colin Mitchelson (UKIP) 88
Alastair Macintyre (Independent) 66
Cairinne Louise Macdonald (Scottish Green Party) 51

[maxque]

Ashfield

Selston Ind 1180 votes
Ind 294 votes
Lab 172 votes
UKIP 77 votes
Con 52 votes

[maxque]

SI: 66.5% (+21.8)
IND: 16.6% (+16.6)
LAB: 9.7% (-4.3)
UKIP: 4.3% (+4.3)
CON: 2.9% (+2.9)

[maxque]

Rochford

Lab 332 (32.4; +3.2)
Con 328 (32.0; -8.2)
UKIP 250 (24.4; -6.2)
LD 114 (11.1; +11.1)

[Merseymike]

Independents seem pretty 'dug in' for many of these wards

[piperdave]

Nov 26, 2015 23:49:37 GMT maxque said:

According to David Coburn, UKIP beated Greens and was 7 votes behind LDs in Rosyth.

Given the Lib Dems came a very distant fourth, I'll not lose much sleep.

The swings in these seats, if replicated next May (just a bit of fun!) would see Dunfermline being regained by the SNP following the 2013 by-election loss. Cowdenbeath would also have fallen on the 2011 figures but Alex Rowley's by-election victory has a majority just large enough to see the SNP off with about 5% to spare. Perhaps it was canvass returns from Rosyth and N Queesnferry that convinced him to claim his regional list ranking just to be on the safe side?