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Post by greenchristian on Nov 24, 2015 23:40:13 GMT
Are you both suggesting that the actual electors have a different attitude to first incumbency members standing again as against subsequent incumbency members they know better, or yet again to newbies they don't know at all? I can't see that could possibly be true. Why would the electorate react like that? My view is that most of the electorate have only a dim idea of which party holds the seat let alone the name of the incumbent. Are you suggesting that there really are sentient beings reflecting in their heads along the lines of 'Well I would have changed to Labour in most normal circumstances, but our member is a first incumbency Conservative, so I shall give him a bit more of a chance'? I don't think so. I don't think that "first time incumbency bonus" does mean that. What it does mean is that the party that holds the bonus changes. So if a Conservative MP took a Labour seat in 2010, the 2010 results would include a Labour incumbency bonus. The 2015 results would not include a Labour incumbency bonus, but would include a Conservative incumbency bonus. This would show as a greater swing to the Conservatives / lower swing to Labour than a similar seat which the Conservatives first won in 2005 or earlier. By 2020, the Conservative incumbency bonus would still be there, but it would be "priced in" to the previous election result. Which means that it can be ignored for psephological purposes. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 14, 2016 14:23:50 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 14, 2016 14:39:16 GMT
The Tories also overperformed in some 2010 gains where the MP elected in 2010 stood down: Cannock Chase, Dudley S, N Warwickshire. Perhaps its more about those rather white, small town, Midlands constituencies - the MP for Cannock Chase was certainly not so meone who would have had a sizeable personal vote |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 14, 2016 16:36:16 GMT
Definitely a lot of "blue Liberals" in each of those constituencies - in retrospect it should perhaps have been more obvious that when one party loses essentially its entire vote in a given seat, that the redistribution of that vote is not necessarily going to be in a clear political direction.
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Post by greenhert on Jan 14, 2016 18:48:50 GMT
Definitely a lot of "blue Liberals" in each of those constituencies - in retrospect it should perhaps have been more obvious that when one party loses essentially its entire vote in a given seat, that the redistribution of that vote is not necessarily going to be in a clear political direction.
Those 'blue Liberals' must have played a part in some of those unexpected Conservative holds/Conservative gains from Labour especially in cases like Derby North, Warrington South, and Northampton North.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 15, 2016 18:54:13 GMT
Midlands swing voters have a longstanding habit of sometimes all moving together (including staying put all together as well, obviously).
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Post by Deleted on Jan 15, 2016 18:58:42 GMT
The Tories also overperformed in some 2010 gains where the MP elected in 2010 stood down: Cannock Chase, Dudley S, N Warwickshire. Perhaps its more about those rather white, small town, Midlands constituencies - the MP for Cannock Chase was certainly not so meone who would have had a sizeable personal vote At the same time, Cannock is not the sort of place that would care about the incident. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 15, 2016 23:07:48 GMT
The Tories also overperformed in some 2010 gains where the MP elected in 2010 stood down: Cannock Chase, Dudley S, N Warwickshire. Perhaps its more about those rather white, small town, Midlands constituencies - the MP for Cannock Chase was certainly not so meone who would have had a sizeable personal vote What you are struggling to say here Mersey is 'Real England'. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Jan 15, 2016 23:51:54 GMT
Where is False England then? And don't you spend most of your time outside any England, real or false?
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 16, 2016 1:42:03 GMT
Perhaps its more about those rather white, small town, Midlands constituenciezs - the MP for Cannock Chase was certainly not so meone who would have had a sizeable personal vote At the same time, Cannock is not the sort of place that would care about the incident. Which might make it a progressively less automatic Labour seat. Demographically it's moved away from us, certainly |
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 16, 2016 1:44:06 GMT
Where is False England then? And don't you spend most of your time outside any England, real or false? Isn't it all the time - Italy and Scotland were not England last time I checked. The point is that there is no Real England, we have a diverse variety of England's. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 16, 2016 8:52:25 GMT
Where is False England then? And don't you spend most of your time outside any England, real or false? Ohhhh !!! Get her! |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 16, 2016 8:56:56 GMT
A couple of hundred years ago, a Tory candidate was asked by local Tories of he would live in the constituency. He replied that he would hunt over it. Carlton shows similar commitment to England. He flies over it. Back in your box Boogie. Where I am and what I do and how I do it are all personal to me and no one else's bloody business............and have nothing to do with my comment or the truth of it. I don't fly, I drive and train. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 16, 2016 9:00:31 GMT
Where is False England then? And don't you spend most of your time outside any England, real or false? Isn't it all the time - Italy and Scotland were not England last time I checked. The point is that there is no Real England, we have a diverse variety of England's. We who refer to Real England know damn well what it is, where it is and how important it is to preserve from the wretched mish-mash that blights a lot of the inner-city urban. Diverse variety be damned. |
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Post by David Ashforth on Jan 16, 2016 14:13:02 GMT
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Post by Merseymike on Jan 17, 2016 13:40:17 GMT
Isn't it all the time - Italy and Scotland were not England last time I checked. The point is that there is no Real England, we have a diverse variety of England's. We who refer to Real England know damn well what it is, where it is and how important it is to preserve from the wretched mish-mash that blights a lot of the inner-city urban. Diverse variety be damned. Its your idea of Real England but is utterly false to many. Which is the point - your real England is something which still exists in some parts of the country but for many its in the past. There is no singular England any more as much as you want there to be. And there never will be again |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 17, 2016 14:27:26 GMT
We who refer to Real England know damn well what it is, where it is and how important it is to preserve from the wretched mish-mash that blights a lot of the inner-city urban. Diverse variety be damned. Its your idea of Real England but is utterly false to many. Which is the point - your real England is something which still exists in some parts of the country but for many its in the past. There is no singular England any more as much as you want there to be. And there never will be again Understood Mersey and not factually contested. We both know what we like and what we prefer and possibly cannot think why the other feels as he does? Yes it does still exist in quite a lot of the surface area, thank goodness, and quite enough of it to see me out. Beware your 'never will again'! Don't be too sure......Never is a long time and much can happen in it. |
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Post by carlton43 on Jan 17, 2016 14:29:28 GMT
I thought rather disappointing? |
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Post by johnsmith on Jan 17, 2016 14:49:30 GMT
Another factor worth noting.
In many seats - and this is particularly true down in the southwest of England where I live - the Lib Dems always relied heavily on anti-Tory tactical voting, because neither Labour nor anyone else were perceived as standing a chance. Only the Lib Dems could defeat the Tories in much of the rural southwest.
Down here the Lib Dem presence was strong, their voter base consisting mainly of a coalition between genuine lefties voting tactically, and genuine centrists more akin perhaps to many of the Lib Dem supporters on this forum.
Problem is, when the Lib Dems jumped into coalition with those very same Tories, the left leaning tactical voters no longer saw any point in voting Lib Dem as an anti-Tory tactical vote, so mostly went elsewhere - if they voted at all. This gifted just about all the Lib Dem's southwest seats to the Tories who swept the board down here, making gains mostly from the Lib Dems.
Sadly, though, my former seat of Plymouth Moorview went Tory in 2015 too, so there were places where the Tories gained from Labour. I expected much of the Lib Dem vote in Plymouth to collapse - which it did - and fall into the arms of Labour - which it sadly didn't.
Not a representative sample at all, but amongst the many people I spoke to about it, there were fears expressed about both immigration and the SNP which Labour failed to neutralise. And since subsequently joining the party I have learned that local party polling revealed a late drift from Labour to UKIP, primarily over the immigration issue.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 17, 2016 15:46:31 GMT
Down here the Lib Dem presence was strong, their voter base consisting mainly of a coalition between genuine lefties voting tactically, and genuine centrists more akin perhaps to many of the Lib Dem supporters on this forum. Plus many who have switched to UKIP for any number of reasons. |
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