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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 13, 2015 11:20:19 GMT
OK so the children are enjoying their play pen. May was the big event........BOMB! BOMB!! Yes, you both did. Your point? |
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carlton43
Reform Party
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 13, 2015 11:41:30 GMT
OK so the children are enjoying their play pen. May was the big event........BOMB! BOMB!! Yes, you both did. Your point? That was a late and rather tired retort. my point was that the LDs were bigging themselves up and I compared and contrasted with the one big event of the year..........where the victors were the Conservatives and SNP. A further comparison might elicit that Labour had a bum show in losing shoals of seats to the SNP and some more to the Conservatives, so nothing to crow about. We won our first seat at a GE and had shoals of second places and had a massive increase in our vote. If that is bombing, I hope we bomb again with a similar increase in poll and improved positions.....and that you have a similar style result of delicate but terminal decline. I am sure you will do your best to make that come about. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 13, 2015 11:43:48 GMT
It's bombing if you massively over-ramp it. There are times when it is sensible to remain silent.
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Post by marksenior on Nov 13, 2015 12:13:31 GMT
Yes, you both did. Your point? That was a late and rather tired retort. my point was that the LDs were bigging themselves up and I compared and contrasted with the one big event of the year..........where the victors were the Conservatives and SNP. A further comparison might elicit that Labour had a bum show in losing shoals of seats to the SNP and some more to the Conservatives, so nothing to crow about. We won our first seat at a GE and had shoals of second places and had a massive increase in our vote. If that is bombing, I hope we bomb again with a similar increase in poll and improved positions.....and that you have a similar style result of delicate but terminal decline. I am sure you will do your best to make that come about. There are many GEs in the past where the Liberals and Lib Dems had shoals of 2nd places , a massive increase in votes and won more seats than UKIP managed in May . Often but not always they were followed by a falling back in the next GE . The evidence so far is that UKIP are following a similar pattern and their shoals of 2nd places will vanish as swiftly as they came . Your councillors , membership , money and votes are disappearing faster than snow in July pretty much an indication of future bombing . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 12:57:42 GMT
The evidence of council by-elections is that UKIP support has receded to Spring 2012 levels, and this seems to be supported by polling evidence which mostly puts them at around 8-10%. This does not represent a collapse - indeed, seen in terms of past performance, it tentatively suggests a new degree of resilience.
I am by no means a cheerleader for UKIP, and am painfully aware of their organisational weakness, political immaturity and arbitrary leadership. However, that isn't new, and we should be careful about over-emphasising how much they are hurt by it (the question of whether they maximise their potential is a slightly different one). To use the language of statistics, UKIP's performance has hitherto tended to be the "balancing item" of the performance of the other parties. At a time when both Labour and the Conservatives are having problems which show no sign of early resolution, it is too early to assume that has changed.
As for the Lib Dems, I have been impressed by some of the good results they have achieved since the general election at local level, and there does seem to be tentative evidence of a slight bounce in national polls. However, the big picture still looks rather discouraging for them, in my view.
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carlton43
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 13, 2015 14:00:45 GMT
Wise words by GOC and no cause to pick a fight with MS. We have nothing to crow about in our corner but we should not be judged by the normal conventions of party politics because we have rather different objectives. Local government is a bedrock to the LDs and part of the necessary machinery of both Labour and Conservatives. We are the active end of a tendency, a mood, and two dominant issues. Like many in the party I am far from concerned about results except as a measure of our effect on the body politick. We have moved the agenda and opened up the agenda. We have wrong-footed both Conservatives and Labour over immigration and prised out a referendum from a reluctant Cameron administration.
In a long political life I have seen Kent go solid blue and Scotland nearly solid yellow. I have seen Labour eradicated from scores of seats in the Midlands, South and East Anglia, and Conservatives eradicated from dozens in Liverpool, Manchester, Leeds, Bradford, Newcastle, Birmingham and Sheffield. Things change and areas mutate even within the continuum of convential day-to-day politics. We are different and have different aims and objectives. We might be dull and quiescent for ages like a disease, and then break out in a rapid new infection. The thing about infections is that all are vulnerable!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 14:56:55 GMT
If the above sounds far fetched, it would make the UK something like Poland, where the left got NO elected representatives in the last general election, even though election was held under PR. We are not like Poland, and highly unlikely to be in the forseeable future. Thankfully. Worth pointing out that the left were in power as recently as 2005 (SLD). They now fail to break the 5% threshold needed to get into the Sejm. Working Class voters have turned to Catholic Nationalist PiS, who are way to the right of UKIP. Of course, Poland is not the same as the UK. It is an almost entirely ethnically homogeneous nation. Religious belief still plays a major role in many peoples' lives. However, a scenario in which the white working class predominently vote UKIP rather than Labour is not implausible in the UK. A similar scenario has evolved in France, with their Working Class voting FN, and in many other European countries. Labour would remain strong in London and the UK's major cities, where the white Working Class are in a minority. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 13, 2015 14:59:22 GMT
We are not like Poland, and highly unlikely to be in the forseeable future. Thankfully. Why 'thankfully'? |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 13, 2015 15:04:02 GMT
I tend not to like places with a a strong theocratic influence (even if it is declining) I am glad we are not Ireland for the same reason  |
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Post by president1 on Nov 13, 2015 20:24:59 GMT
UKIP 48 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 19.8% By election vote share was 12.1% 23 by elections fought were interventions not fought previously By election vote share 9.0% Lib Dem 58 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 14.0% By election vote share was 19.8% 12 by elections fought which had not been fought previously By election vote share 14.0% I do not suppose anyone has the figures for Labour and Conservative since the general election? Would be very interested to see those. |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 13, 2015 20:36:21 GMT
UKIP 48 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 19.8% By election vote share was 12.1% 23 by elections fought were interventions not fought previously By election vote share 9.0% Lib Dem 58 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 14.0% By election vote share was 19.8% 12 by elections fought which had not been fought previously By election vote share 14.0% I do not suppose anyone has the figures for Labour and Conservative since the general election? Would be very interested to see those. Haven't got them but if I have time will work them out over the weekend |
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Post by president1 on Nov 13, 2015 21:05:47 GMT
I do not suppose anyone has the figures for Labour and Conservative since the general election? Would be very interested to see those. Haven't got them but if I have time will work them out over the weekend Thank you - that would be much appreciated. |
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peterl
Green
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Post by peterl on Nov 13, 2015 22:15:59 GMT
I'm at the other end of the county, but I saw nothing about Rodwell in our local or regional e-newsletters, no action days advertised. If there was a strong campaign going on, it was strictly a local affair.
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Post by marksenior on Nov 14, 2015 17:34:33 GMT
Haven't got them but if I have time will work them out over the weekend Thank you - that would be much appreciated. Well I have figures for Con and Lab now but I must say that there are wide variations up and down from the averages Labour Scottish seats 20 seats fought previously ( all in 2012 ) and at by election Vote share previously 38.7% By election vote share 25.8% Eng/Wales seats 68 seats fought previously and at by election Vote share previously 36.5% By election vote share 34.6% 1 by election ignored where Labour were unopposed previously 3 seats not fought previously by election vote share 10.9% Conservative Scottish seats 24 seats fought previously and at by election Vote share previously 10.3% By election vote share 13.6% Eng/Wales 70 seats fought previously and at by election Vote share previously 33.1% By election vote share 33.5% 6 seats not fought previously by election vote share 12.2% I have not fully analysed the figures by the year previously thought but the impression I have is that the Conservatives are doing a little better now than in seats previously fought in 2012-2014 and a little worse overall than those previously fought in May . |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 27, 2015 10:52:42 GMT
Figures updated with all November by elections
UKIP 53 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share down from 19.8% to 11.9%
28 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 8.8%
Lib Dems 65 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share up from 14.0% to 19.6%
16 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 12.0%
Labour 22 Scottish by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 39.6% to 26.4%
74 Eng/Wales by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 35.5% to 33.2%
3 seats not fought previously by election vote share 10.9%
Conservatives 26 Scottish seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 10.0% to 13.4%
77 Eng/Wales seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 33.0% to 33.6%
10 seats not fought previously by election vote share 9.6%
41 seats were also either contested in 2015 or had DC results which allow vote shares to be calculated in May .
In these the Conservative vote share fell from 39.2% to 32.6% . Clearly the Conservatives are doing better
than in 2012/2013/2014 but not as well as they did in May
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2015 11:22:49 GMT
Figures updated with all November by elections UKIP 53 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share down from 19.8% to 11.9% 28 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 8.8% Lib Dems 65 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share up from 14.0% to 19.6% 16 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 12.0% Labour 22 Scottish by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 39.6% to 26.4% 74 Eng/Wales by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 35.5% to 33.2% 3 seats not fought previously by election vote share 10.9% Conservatives 26 Scottish seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 10.0% to 13.4% 77 Eng/Wales seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 33.0% to 33.6% 10 seats not fought previously by election vote share 9.6% 41 seats were also either contested in 2015 or had DC results which allow vote shares to be calculated in May . In these the Conservative vote share fell from 39.2% to 32.6% . Clearly the Conservatives are doing better than in 2012/2013/2014 but not as well as they did in May Enjoy the stats do you happen to have SNP, PC & GREENS as well. |
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Post by marksenior on Nov 27, 2015 18:00:48 GMT
Figures updated with all November by elections UKIP 53 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share down from 19.8% to 11.9% 28 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 8.8% Lib Dems 65 by elections fought which had been fought previously Vote share up from 14.0% to 19.6% 16 by elections fought which had not been fought previously Vote share 12.0% Labour 22 Scottish by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 39.6% to 26.4% 74 Eng/Wales by elections fought previously and at by election Vote share down from 35.5% to 33.2% 3 seats not fought previously by election vote share 10.9% Conservatives 26 Scottish seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 10.0% to 13.4% 77 Eng/Wales seats fought previously and at by election Vote share up from 33.0% to 33.6% 10 seats not fought previously by election vote share 9.6% 41 seats were also either contested in 2015 or had DC results which allow vote shares to be calculated in May . In these the Conservative vote share fell from 39.2% to 32.6% . Clearly the Conservatives are doing better than in 2012/2013/2014 but not as well as they did in May Enjoy the stats do you happen to have SNP, PC & GREENS as well. OK here we are SNP 24 by elections fought previously ( all 2012 ) and at by election . Vote share increased from 34.2% to 47.2% Plaid 8 by elections fought previously and at by election , Vote share increased from 33.2% to 41.3% Plaid 3 by elections not fought previously vote share 16.1% Greens 44 by elections fought previously and at by election , Vote share decreased from 10.7% to 9.3% Greens 27 by elections not fought previously vote share 3.7% |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 27, 2015 18:31:43 GMT
Enjoy the stats do you happen to have SNP, PC & GREENS as well. OK here we are SNP 24 by elections fought previously ( all 2012 ) and at by election . Vote share increased from 34.2% to 47.2% Plaid 8 by elections fought previously and at by election , Vote share increased from 33.2% to 41.3% Plaid 3 by elections not fought previously vote share 16.1% Greens 44 by elections fought previously and at by election , Vote share decreased from 10.7% to 9.3% Greens 27 by elections not fought previously vote share 3.7% Thank you |
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