UKIP and LIB DEM Council By Election Since GE

[marksenior]

UKIP 48 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 19.8% By election vote share was 12.1%
23 by elections fought were interventions not fought previously By election vote share 9.0%

Lib Dem 58 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 14.0% By election vote share was 19.8%
12 by elections fought which had not been fought previously By election vote share 14.0%

[carlton43]

Yeah, yeah, yeah! Feel better now? Let's big ourselves up to a weak possible third!

[Crimson King]

I don't think it is an unreasonable statistic to post on a psephology site

[Harry Hayfield]

If carlton43 is having problems with what is indeed a reasonable statistic post, then I wonder how he would comment on these:

Wisbech South on Cambridgeshire (June 4th 2015): Con +32%, Lab -3%, Lib Dem -10%, UKIP -20% (Con GAIN from UKIP)
Gorleston St. Andrew on Norfolk (July 16th 2015): Con +15%, Lab +2%, Lib Dem +3%, UKIP -23%, Green +2% (Con GAIN from UKIP)
Rush Green on Tendring (July 16th 2015): Con +3%, Lab +3%, Lib Dem unchanged, UKIP -10%, Ind +4% (UKIP HOLD)
Camborne, Pandarves (August 20th 2015): Con unchanged, Lab +2%, Lib Dem +29%, UKIP -23%, Green +3%, Ind +1% Others -12% (Con GAIN from UKIP)
Chatteris on Cambridgeshire (October 15th 2015): Con +6%, Lab -9%, Lib Dem -3%, UKIP +6% (UKIP HOLD)

[carlton43]

OK so the children are enjoying their play pen. May was the big event........BOMB! BOMB!!

[Crimson King]

Indeed it was, and it changed things significantly, it is not unreasonable to observe straws in the wind in order attempt to assess the ramifications of that change

[Deleted]

If I was a LibDem supporter (I support UKIP) I'd be crowing. The LibDems appear to have regained third spot. Don't think it'll last, but who knows?

[Deleted]

LibDem supporters fall into three categories: idealists, centerists and protest voters. The idealists might as well vote for Corbyn, the centerists for the Tories (Cameron's Conservatives appear to be a larger version of the SDP) and the protest voters for UKIP.

[Deleted]

Liberals were quite strong in Oldham. It's highly unlikely the LibDems will do well in the by-election, which is a far better test than council byelections. If UKIP run Labour close (as they most likely will) the UKIP bandwagon will start rolling again. Cameron's weakness, the coming referendum, the Corbyn factor for Labour, the refugee crisis - all play into UKIP's hands.

[Deleted]

Northern and Working Class Labour voters repulsed by Corbyn are likely to turn to UKIP, Southern and Middle Class voters to the LibDems.

[marksenior]

Nov 12, 2015 16:03:19 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Northern and Working Class Labour voters repulsed by Corbyn are likely to turn to UKIP, Southern and Middle Class voters to the LibDems.

The number of Northern / Working Class voters repulsed by Corbyn is miniscule . I am not particularly enamoured by him but repulsed is far too strong a word to use . The few that are repulsed will likely already be voting UKIP .
The initial feedback from Oldham is that UKIP will suffer a slight fall back in support in the by election and Labour will win comfortably on a low turnout and there will be a small increase in the LD vote share to perhaps 8-9% but we shall see .

[Deleted]

Nov 12, 2015 17:03:17 GMT marksenior said:

Nov 12, 2015 16:03:19 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Northern and Working Class Labour voters repulsed by Corbyn are likely to turn to UKIP, Southern and Middle Class voters to the LibDems.

The number of Northern / Working Class voters repulsed by Corbyn is miniscule . I am not particularly enamoured by him but repulsed is far too strong a word to use . The few that are repulsed will likely already be voting UKIP .
The initial feedback from Oldham is that UKIP will suffer a slight fall back in support in the by election and Labour will win comfortably on a low turnout and there will be a small increase in the LD vote share to perhaps 8-9% but we shall see .

Where are you getting your information from. Have you a prediction regarding vote share?

[marksenior]

Nov 12, 2015 17:28:36 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Nov 12, 2015 17:03:17 GMT marksenior said:

The number of Northern / Working Class voters repulsed by Corbyn is miniscule . I am not particularly enamoured by him but repulsed is far too strong a word to use . The few that are repulsed will likely already be voting UKIP .
The initial feedback from Oldham is that UKIP will suffer a slight fall back in support in the by election and Labour will win comfortably on a low turnout and there will be a small increase in the LD vote share to perhaps 8-9% but we shall see .

Where are you getting your information from. Have you a prediction regarding vote share?

Feedback from various sources local to Oldham . No vote share forecast yet early days and of course things may change by elections can grow a life of their own .

[keithn]

Lib Dems are the third party of local government. They still have far more councillors than UKIP or the Greens.

However UKIP are the third party nationally. They poll well ahead of the Lib Dems and are likely to do well in Oldham while the Lib Dems' objective is to hold the deposit.

In parliament, the SNP are the third party with a presence on every Commons committee.

Personally I won't be happy until Lib Dems are in third place locally, nationally and in parliament - but that is many years away.

[Deleted]

Hoping for a bronze medal suggests a distinct lack of ambition. Ukip's aim is to replace Labour as main opposition to Tories.

[Deleted]

If the above sounds far fetched, it would make the UK something like Poland, where the left got NO elected representatives in the last general election, even though election was held under PR.

[marksenior]

Nov 11, 2015 16:33:01 GMT marksenior said:

UKIP 49 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 19.8% By election vote share was 12.0%
24 by elections fought were interventions not fought previously By election vote share 8.9%

Lib Dem 59 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 13.8% By election vote share was 19.5%
13 by elections fought which had not been fought previously By election vote share 14.5%

Figures updated after this week's by elections

[Deleted]

Nov 13, 2015 8:28:40 GMT marksenior said:

Nov 11, 2015 16:33:01 GMT marksenior said:

UKIP 49 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 19.8% By election vote share was 12.0%
24 by elections fought were interventions not fought previously By election vote share 8.9%

Lib Dem 59 by elections fought which had been fought previously Previous vote share had been 13.8% By election vote share was 19.5%
13 by elections fought which had not been fought previously By election vote share 14.5%

Figures updated after this week's by elections

Terrible results for UKIP again. My guess would be that they never bothered to campaign in these byelections.

[Tony Otim]

Nov 13, 2015 8:42:01 GMT @szczecinianin said:

Nov 13, 2015 8:28:40 GMT marksenior said:

Figures updated after this week's by elections

Terrible results for UKIP again. My guess would be that they never bothered to campaign in these byelections.

I would guess peterl would be able tell us whether there was any campaign in Dorset. It certainly wasn't their best ward in Weymouth, but Weymouth is somewhere where they have some strength, so I would be surprised if they did absolutely nothing there.

[The Bishop]

Nov 12, 2015 18:08:59 GMT @szczecinianin said:

If the above sounds far fetched, it would make the UK something like Poland, where the left got NO elected representatives in the last general election, even though election was held under PR.

We are not like Poland, and highly unlikely to be in the forseeable future. Thankfully.