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Post by mick745 on Oct 29, 2015 12:05:00 GMT
This has been touched upon in the Post apocalyptic politics and government, and sorry for the macabre thread and I do not wish to trivialise this event in any way, but I have recently been listening to The Downing Street Years on audio tape read by the author and was wondering what would have happened if the IRA had murdered Margaret Thatcher and/or a significant number of the Cabinet in the 1984 Brighton Bomb. Thatcherism was at its height during this period, with a 144 majority gained at the election the year before.
It is difficult to see which senior Conservative party member could have taken over, especially if other Cabinet members had been injured or killed. Would there have been an emergency leadership contest? Who would have emerged? How would the 1980s have been different? Would there have been a different result in 1987 and 1992? Would Labour have got to power quicker thus stuffing out Blairism/New Labour?
Discuss.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 29, 2015 12:12:45 GMT
I would have thought Geoffrey Howe would be the most likely interim PM had the Brighton bomb killed Mrs Thatcher.
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john07
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Post by john07 on Nov 15, 2015 16:36:04 GMT
What impact would that have had for the 1987 election?
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 15, 2015 18:14:44 GMT
I would have thought Geoffrey Howe would be the most likely interim PM had the Brighton bomb killed Mrs Thatcher. Interim PM yes but in the event of Thatcher having been assassinated I have a hard time seeing her replacement not being someone from the Thatcherite wing of the party. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 16, 2015 12:15:47 GMT
The likelihood of course is that in such circumstances the government would have called a new GE as soon as practicable, and won a majority between big and huge.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2015 17:35:57 GMT
The likelihood of course is that in such circumstances the government would have called a new GE as soon as practicable, and won a majority between big and huge. There was certainly an opinion poll boost for the Conservatives between the bomb attack and the end of 1984, their lead averaging at around 9-10% in contrast to about 1% between the Portsmouth South by-election and the conference season. The party would probably have wanted an elected leader in place before any GE campaign, however. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 16, 2015 18:10:39 GMT
1984 would have been remembered as an disconcerting year for women leaders to put it mildly, including aspiring ones. Indira Gandhi was of course gunned down within a few weeks of the Brighton bomb.
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Post by swingometer on Apr 20, 2024 20:42:26 GMT
The likelihood of course is that in such circumstances the government would have called a new GE as soon as practicable, and won a majority between big and huge. Out of sympathy or because of specific approval? |
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 21, 2024 7:35:32 GMT
The likelihood of course is that in such circumstances the government would have called a new GE as soon as practicable, and won a majority between big and huge. Out of sympathy or because of specific approval?
Both.
This was 2 years after the success in the Falklands, and a large percentage of the public would have been in favour of sending the troops in to get the IRA once and for all. The Thatcher government also had a lot of the country onside due to the miners strike. There would have been pockets they wouldn't have won, in the North, Wales and Scotand but most of the country would have turned Blue.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 21, 2024 10:02:04 GMT
1984 would have been remembered as an disconcerting year for women leaders to put it mildly, including aspiring ones. Indira Gandhi was of course gunned down within a few weeks of the Brighton bomb. And not long after Congress won a big GE victory, the two things were not unconnected. |
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stb12
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Post by stb12 on Apr 21, 2024 10:08:40 GMT
I wonder if the peace process would have gone the same way it did if they had succeeded. Obviously the IRA did a lot of damage anyway but having the history of killing a head of British government would have been something even more significant in many ways
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Post by Defenestrated Fipplebox on Apr 21, 2024 12:06:31 GMT
I wonder if the peace process would have gone the same way it did if they had succeeded. Obviously the IRA did a lot of damage anyway but having the history of killing a head of British government would have been something even more significant in many ways
No chance, it would have killed it dead in the water, you would have heard all football crowds singing fuck the IRA, it would have set the peace process back by a generation at least.
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