Prediction Competition for October 2015

[Robert Waller]

Barrow-in-Furness, Risedale: Lab 65, UKIP 17 Con 18
Brentwood , Shenfield: LD 36, Con 46, UKIP 8, Lab 7, Green 3
Cheshire East , Congleton East : Con 44, Lab 22, UKIP 11, LD 23
Chorley Euxton North: Lab 46, Con 40, UKIP 14
Peterborough, West: Con 46, Lab 33, UKIP 10, LD 6, Green 5
Wealden, Hellingly: Con 37, LD 38, Ind 25

[greenhert]

My predictions for this week's by-elections are as follows:

Barrow-in-Furness BC, Risedale: Lab 46, Con 41, UKIP 13.
Brentwood BC, Shenfield: Con 52, Lib Dem 29, Lab 8, UKIP 6, Green 5. (Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat.)
Cheshire East UA, Congleton East: Con 43, Lab 27, Lib Dem 15, UKIP 15.
Chorley BC, Euxton North: Lab 50, Con 35, UKIP 15.
Peterborough UA, West: Con 45, Lab 30, Lib Dem 10, UKIP 8, Green 7.
Wealden DC, Hellingly: Lib Dem 36, Con 33, Independent 31. (Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative.)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BARROW-in-FURNESS Risedale: Lab 51, C 34, UKIP 15
BRENTWOOD Shenfield: L Dem 45, C 41, UKIP 7, Lab 5, GP 2
CHESHIRE EAST Congleton East: C 46, Lab 29, L Dem 13, UKIP 12
CHORLEY Euxton North: Lab 49, C 39, UKIP 12
PETERBOROUGH West: C 49, Lab 31, UKIP 9, L Dem 6, GP 5
WEALDEN Hellingly: Ind 37, C 34, L Dem 29

[marksenior]

Barrow Lab 57 Con 28 UKIP 15
Brentwood Con 44 LD 36 Lab 9 UKIP 7 Green 4
Cheshire East Con 44 Lab 29 LD 16 UKIP 11
Chorley Lab 46 Con 43 UKIP 11
Peterborough Con 48 Lab 29 UKIP 12 LD 7 Green 4
Wealden LD 38 Con 32 Ind 30

[maxque]

Barrow-in-Furness BC, Risedale: Lab 61, Con 23, UKIP 16.
Brentwood BC, Shenfield: Con 62, LD 25, UKIP 7, Lab 3, Grn 3.
Cheshire East UA, Congleton East: Con 43.4, Lab 28, UKIP 18.8, LD 9.8
Chorley BC, Euxton North: Lab 49, Con 41, UKIP 10.
Peterborough UA, West: Con 37, Lab 34, UKIP 16, LD 7, Grn 6.
Wealden DC, Hellingly: LD 35, Con 34, Ind 31.

[Pete Whitehead]

Oct 29, 2015 0:10:57 GMT petewhitehead said:

Cheshire East UA - Congleton East

Con   48.3%
Lab   24.3%
UKIP 14.1%
LD     13.3%


Peterborough UA - West

Con   47.1%
Lab   31.1%
UKIP 13.5%
LD       5.2%
Grn     3.1%


Barrow in Furness BC - Risedale

Lab   53.5%
Con   28.2%
UKIP 18.3%


Brentwood BC - Shenfield

Con   47.7%
LD     34.5%
UKIP   7.5%
Lab     6.4%
Grn    3.9%


Chorley BC - Euxton North

Lab    47.6%
Con   40.2%
UKIP 12.2%


Wealden DC - Hellingly

Ind   35.4%
LD    33.3%
Con  31.3%

[Tony Otim]

Oct 28, 2015 16:01:08 GMT tonyotim said:

Barrow:
Lab 61.2
Con 20.8
UKIP 18.0


Brentwood:
Con 51.2
LD 34.1
UKIP 6.9
Lab 5.1
Grn 2.7


Cheshire East:
Con 47.8
Lab 21.8
UKIp 19.3
LD 11.1


Chorley:
Lab 46.7
Con 38.2
UKIp 15.1


Peterborough:
Con 45.2
Lab 32.3
UKIP 13.5
LD 4.6
Grn 4.4


Wealden:
LD 40.3
Con 36.2
Ind 23.5

[middleenglander]

9 entries again this week, with all present and correct at parade time.

Barrow-in-Furness, Risedale: 100% Labour hold, majority ranging from 2% (Lennon) to 47% (Robert Waller)
Brentwood, Shenstone: 6 Conservative gain from Liberal Democrat, David Boothroyd, hempie & Lennon Liberal Democrat hold
Cheshire East, Congleton East: 100% Conservative hold, majority ranging from 15% (Mark Senior) to 26% (Tony Otim)
Chorley, Euxton North: 8 Labour hold, majority ranging from 3% (Mark Senior) to 17% (hempie) with Lennon a Conservative gain
Peterborough, West: 100% Conservative hold, majority ranging from 3% (Maxque) to 19% (Mark Senior)
Wealden, Hellingly: 5 Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative, David Boothroyd, Lennon & Pete Whitehead Independent gain, hempie Conservative hold

[middleenglander]

Barrow, Risedale
Pete Whitehead 11.2 faults, Maxque 16.1, Tony Otim 16.5, Mark Senior 17.8, David Boothroyd 21.7, hempie & Robert Waller 24.1, Lennon 31.7, Greenhert 35.7

Brentwood, Shenstone
Tony Otim 12.3 faults, Maxque 15.6, Greenhert 17.8, Pete Whitehead 19.3, Robert Waller 22.7, Mark Senior 26.7, David Boothroyd 32.7+10, hempie 42.7+10, Lennon 44.7+10

Chorley, Euxton
David Boothroyd & Maxque 16.6 faults, Greenhert & hempie 17.5, Pete Whitehead 19.4, Tony Otim 21.2, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 22.6, Lennon 36.6+10

Peterborough, West
Pete Whitehead 7.1 faults, Tony Otim 8.3, Mark Senior 9.5, hempie 12.9, Robert Waller 13.7, David Boothroyd 14.8, Lennon 17.1, Greenhert & Maxque 19.7

Wealden, Hellingly
Tony Otim 59.3 faults, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 63.9, Greenhert 67.9, hempie 59.9+10, Maxque 69.9, Pete Whitehead 73.3+10, David Boothroyd 81.9+10, Lennon 89.9+10

and with the result for Cheshire East awaited, for the week
Tony Otim 117.6 faults, Maxque 137.9, Pete Whitehead 140.3, Mark Senior 140.6, Robert Waller 147.0, Greenhert 158.6, hempie 177.1, David Boothroyd 187.8, Lennon 250.1

and with the Cheshire East result to come Pete Whitehead is 22.1 faults ahead of Robert Waller for the month with Tony Otim 2.4 further behind.

[Tony Otim]

I'm not sure either Robert's or my predictions are different enough from Pete's for him to be caught now on Cheshire East.

[Tony Otim]

On a quick calculation, I make it Pete finished 8.5 clear of Robert and I was a further 20.4 behind.

So congratulations to Pete for the month and Robert for pushing him close.

[middleenglander]

Barrow, Risedale
Pete Whitehead 11.2 faults, Maxque 16.1, Tony Otim 16.5, Mark Senior 17.8, David Boothroyd 21.7, hempie & Robert Waller 24.1, Lennon 31.7, Greenhert 35.7

Brentwood, Shenstone
Tony Otim 12.3 faults, Maxque 15.6, Greenhert 17.8, Pete Whitehead 19.3, Robert Waller 22.7, Mark Senior 26.7, David Boothroyd 32.7+10, hempie 42.7+10, Lennon 44.7+10

Cheshire East, Congleton East
Robert Waller 16.3 faults, hempie 22.5, Greenhert 26.5, Pete Whitehead 29.9, Mark Senior 30.3, David Boothroyd & Tony Otim 34.3, Maxque 36.9, Lennon 44.3

Chorley, Euxton
David Boothroyd & Maxque 16.6 faults, Greenhert & hempie 17.5, Pete Whitehead 19.4, Tony Otim 21.2, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 22.6, Lennon 36.6+10

Peterborough, West
Pete Whitehead 7.1 faults, Tony Otim 8.3, Mark Senior 9.5, hempie 12.9, Robert Waller 13.7, David Boothroyd 14.8, Lennon 17.1, Greenhert & Maxque 19.7

Wealden, Hellingly
Tony Otim 59.3 faults, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 63.9, Greenhert 67.9, hempie 59.9+10, Maxque 69.9, Pete Whitehead 73.3+10, David Boothroyd 81.9+10, Lennon 89.9+10

and for the week
Tony Otim 152.0 faults, Robert Waller 163.3, Pete Whitehead 170.3, Mark Senior 170.9, Maxque 174.9, Greenhert 185.2, hempie 199.6, David Boothroyd 222.1, Lennon 294.4

and for the month

717.3 Pete Whitehead
725.8 Robert Waller
746.2 Tony Otim

785.4 Mark Senior
786.0 Maxque
832.3 Greenhert

852.7 hempie
880.6 David Boothroyd
1085.8 Lennon

Objections please by 10.00 am Sunday.

New thread for November.

Apologies for the delay in posting but I had this all ready to save twice this morning when my broadband / computer crashed.