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Post by greenhert on Oct 21, 2015 23:39:39 GMT
My predictions for 22nd October 2015's by-elections are:
Bury MB, Tottington: Con 49, Lab 34, UKIP 9, Green 4, Lib Dem 4.
Colchester BC, Dedham & Langham: Con 59, Lib Dem 19, UKIP 14, Lab 8.
Hampshire CC, Chandlers Ford: Con 46, Lib Dem 42, Lab 7, UKIP 5.
Oxford BC, Northfield Brook: Lab 69, Green 10, UKIP 9, Con 8, TUSC 4.
South Oxfordshire DC, Sonning Common: Con 55, Lib Dem 29, Lab 16.
Westminster LBC, Bryanston & Dorset Square: Con 50, Lab 21, Green 10, Lib Dem 9, Baker Street: No Two Ways 7, UKIP 3.
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Post by hempie on Oct 22, 2015 7:02:14 GMT
Bury, Tottington: Con 49, Lab 30, UKIP 9, LD 8, Green 4
Colchester, Dedham & Langham: Con 55, LD 25, UKIP 11, Lab 9
Hampshire, Chandlers Ford: LD 43, Con 41, UKIP 8, Lab 8
Oxford, Northfield Brook: Lab 62, Con 13, Green 11, UKIP 8, TUSC 6
South Oxfordshire, Sonning Common: Con 61, LD 27, Lab 12
Westminster, Bryanston & Dorset Square: Con 56, Lab 18, LD 12, Green 6, UKIP 4, Baker Street: No Two Ways 4
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,299 
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Post by maxque on Oct 22, 2015 7:35:24 GMT
Tottington, Bury: Con 49.8, Lab 26.9, UKIP 13.3, Grn 5.5, LD 4.5
Dedham and Langham, Colchester: Con 75.9, Lab 9.7, UKIP 7.7, LD 6.7
Chandler's Ford, Hampshire: Con 49, LD 36, UKIP 9, Lab 6
Northfield Brook, Oxford: Lab 63, UKIP 13, Con 9, TUSC 9, Grn 6
Sonning Common, South Oxfordshire: Con 58, LD 28, Lab 14
Bryanston and Dorset Square, Westminster: Con 49, Lab 17, Grn 16, LD 8, UKIP 5, Baker St etc 5
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Post by marksenior on Oct 22, 2015 7:59:18 GMT
Bury Con 45 Lab 36 UKIP 10 LD 5 Green 4
Colchester Con 70 UKIP 14 LD 10 Lab 6
Hampshire Con 44 LD 36 UKIP 12 Lab 8
Oxford Lab 70 Con 10 TUSC 9 Green 6 UKIP 5
S Oxon Con 65 LD 25 Lab 10
Westminster Con 57 Lab 17 Green 8 LD 8 UKIP 6 Baker 4
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Post by lennon on Oct 22, 2015 8:17:30 GMT
Bury Con 40 Lab 30 UKIP 20 LD 7 Green 3
Colchester Con 65 UKIP 20 LD 10 Lab 5
Hampshire Con 40 LD 35 UKIP 20 Lab 5
Oxford Lab 65 UKIP 11 Con 10 TUSC 8 Green 6
S Oxon Con 65 LD 30 Lab 5
Westminster Con 50 Lab 20 Green 10 LD 10 UKIP 5 Baker 5
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 22, 2015 9:13:13 GMT
Bury: Con 48.5 Lab 27.5 UKIP 14.6 LD 5.8 Grn 3.6 Oxford: Lab 76.7 Con 13.5 Grn 8.7 UKIP 7.8 TUSC 2.3 South Oxon: Con 66.6 LD 18.9 Lab 14.5 Hampshire: Con 43.9 LD 33.2 UKIP 18.7 Lab 4.2 Colchester: Con 67.1 UKIP 13.7 LD 11.4 Lab 7.8 Westminster: Con 47.6 LD 16.3 Lab 16.1 Grn 12.3 UKIP 5.4 Baker St 2.3 |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 22, 2015 10:52:06 GMT
Westminster LB - Bryanston & Dorset Square Con 53.7% Lab 17.1% Grn 10.4% LD 8.6% BS 5.6% UKIP 4.6% Bury MB - Tottington Con 49.1% Lab 29.4% UKIP 12.8% LD 4.9% Grn 3.8% Hampshire CC - Chandler's Ford Con 44.6% LD 34.7% UKIP 12.5% Lab 8.2% Colchester BC - Dedham & Langham Con 60.9% UKIP 19.9% LD 10.4% Lab 8.8% Oxford BC - Northfield Brook Lab 71.6% Con 10.2% Grn 8.8% UKIP 5.7% TUSC 3.7% South Oxfordshire DC - Sonning Common Con 68.6% Lab 17.8% LD 13.6% |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 22, 2015 21:09:52 GMT
9 entries this week with Lennon getting 6 x 5 additional faults for being within 1 hour late. Tony Otim gets 9 additional faults for adding to 109% in Oxford - he may have predicted 76.7% for Labour instead of 67.7%.
David Boothroyd's prediction for Westminster Bryanston & Dorset Square is:
Con 54%, Baker Street: No two ways 19%, Lab 15%, UKIP 7%, LD 3%, Green 2%
Bury, Tottington: 100% Conservative gain from Labour with majority ranging from 9% (Mark Senior) to 22.9% (Maxque)
Colchester, Dedham & Langham: 100% Conservative hold, majority ranging from 30% (David Boothroyd & hempie) to 66.2% (Maxque)
Hampshire, Chandlers Ford: 8 Conservative hold, majority from 1% (Robert Waller) to 19% (David Boothroyd) with hempie Liberal Democrat gain
Oxford, Northfield Brook: 100% Labour hold with majority ranging from 49% (hempie) to 63.2% (Tony Otim)
South Oxfordshire, Sonning Common: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 26% (Lennon) to 50.8% (Pete Whitehead)
Westminster, Bryanston & Dorset Square: 100% Conservative hold, majority from 29% (Lennon) to 40% (Mark Senior)
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 22, 2015 22:47:52 GMT
I reckon that with 5 of tonight's 6 wards in, Pete not only leads for the week, but has taken first place for the month.
Said I'd throw it away ....
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 23, 2015 0:14:37 GMT
For the week it looks like Pete Whitehead ahead of Maxque and Mark Senior whilst for the month to date it is Pete Whitehead ahead of Robert Waller and Tony Otim some way behind in third. Full results in the morning.
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 23, 2015 6:43:20 GMT
Amended
- hempie gets an additional 10 points for predicting a Liberal Democrat gain in Hampshire, Chandler's Ford
- thanks to him for pointing out my error
Bury, Tottington
Robert Waller 4.2 faults, David Boothroyd 7.1, Greenhert 8.8, Pete Whitehead 9.2, hempie 9.9, Maxque 12.8, Tony Otim 14.2, Mark Senior 14.4, Lennon 26.2+5
Colchester, Dedham & Langham
Maxque 8.5 faults, Mark Senior 15.7, Tony Otim 21.5, Lennon 26.6+5, Robert Waller 33.7, Pete Whitehead 33.9, Greenhert 37.7, David Boothroyd 44.0, hempie 45.9
Hampshire, Chandler's Ford
Maxque 2.1 faults, Mark Senior 10.5, Pete Whitehead 10.9, David Boothroyd 12.5, Greenhert 13.5, Robert Waller 17.1, Tony Otim 20.4, hempie 17.5+10, Lennon 23.0+5
Oxford, Northfield Brook
Greenhert 18.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 19.7, David Boothroyd 23.0, Tony Otim 14.3+9, Mark Senior 24.3, Maxque 29.9, Robert Waller 30.3, Lennon 25.9+5, hempie 34.3
South Oxfordshire, Sonning Common
Pete Whitehead 6.0 faults, Tony Otim 12.6, Robert Waller 21.6, David Boothroyd & Mark Senior 23.6, hempie 27.6, Maxque 29.6, Greenhert 31.6, Lennon 33.6+5
Westminster, Bryanston & Dorset Square
Dvid Boothroyd 17.7 faults, Greenhert 24.4, Pete Whitehead 26.0, Maxque 28.6, Robert Waller 31.0, Lennon 27.2+5, Mark Senior 33.0, Tony Otim 36.8, hempie 37.0
and for the week:
Pete Whitehead 105.6 faults, Maxque 111.5, Mark Senior 121.5, David Boothroyd 127.8, Tony Otim 128.8, Greenhert 134.4, Robert Waller 137.9, hempie 182.1, Lennon 192.5
and the month to date:
547.1 Pete Whitehead
562.4 Robert Waller
594.3 Tony Otim
611.1 Maxque
614.5 Mark Senior
647.1 Greenhert
653.1 hempie
658.5 David Boothroyd
791.3 Lennon
Objections please by 5.00 pm Saturday
There are 6 by-election in the last week of October. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,892
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 23, 2015 8:07:39 GMT
Congratulations to Pete for the week and month to date.
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Post by hempie on Oct 26, 2015 22:51:08 GMT
Prediction for October 29:
Barrow-in-Furness, Risedale: Lab 65, UKIP 20, Con 15
Brentwood , Shenfield: LD 40, Con 36, UKIP 13, Lab 7, Green 4
Cheshire East , Congleton East : Con 40, Lab 24, UKIP 19, LD 17
Chorley Euxton North: Lab 51, Con 34, UKIP 15
Peterborough, West: Con 40, Lab 32, UKIP 18,LD 6, Green 4
Wealden, Hellingly: Con 42, LD 40, Ind 18
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 27, 2015 18:06:46 GMT
Was in Congleton East today:
Poster count:
Conservatives 1 (+2 on telegraph poles. Naughty?)
er, that's it.
Evidence of Labour & Lib Dem leaflets. (I was delivering the latter)
HTH
P.S. Having not leafleted in Congleton for some years, I had forgotten just how large the social housing estate is in this part of the town.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 27, 2015 21:06:12 GMT
Bromley Farm, I think. Used to be the core of the safe Labour Congleton North ward (misnamed, as it's really east), then a very active resident who was a Lib Dem converted the ward into a Lib Dem one. Now it's lumped in with Buglawton, a mixed area, and Mossley (the old Congleton South ward) which is the wealthiest bit of the town and strongly Conservative.
Don't know if I should say but my mother lives in the ward.
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 27, 2015 23:37:06 GMT
The whole ward is only 15% social rented, though. It includes a lot of countryside outside the town as well.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 28, 2015 18:42:04 GMT
Bromley Farm, I think. Used to be the core of the safe Labour Congleton North ward (misnamed, as it's really east), then a very active resident who was a Lib Dem converted the ward into a Lib Dem one. Now it's lumped in with Buglawton, a mixed area, and Mossley (the old Congleton South ward) which is the wealthiest bit of the town and strongly Conservative. Don't know if I should say but my mother lives in the ward. Ah, so that was the lady who offered me tea and cake!  |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 28, 2015 18:44:03 GMT
The whole ward is only 15% social rented, though. It includes a lot of countryside outside the town as well. And also, I discovered, a strange little cul-de-sac estate part of which is not only outside the ward, but in Macclesfield constituency. Presumably a long-gone hedgeline marked a parish boundary. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,759
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Post by J.G.Harston on Oct 28, 2015 19:11:21 GMT
And also, I discovered, a strange little cul-de-sac estate part of which is not only outside the ward, but in Macclesfield constituency. Presumably a long-gone hedgeline marked a parish boundary. There are seven and four half houses at the end of a cul-de-sac in Rotherham that are in Sheffield and inaccessible other than through Rotherham, caused by spilling over the district boundary. Ironically, the next road down is Boundary Walk, which is entirely in Rotherham. |
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Post by lennon on Oct 28, 2015 23:14:51 GMT
Another shot to nothing...
Barrow-in-Furness BC, Risedale: Lab 41, Con 39, UKIP 20
Brentwood BC, Shenfield: LD 40, Con 35, UKIP 15, Lab 7, Grn 3
Cheshire East UA, Congleton East: Con 50, Lab 30, LD 10, UKIP 10
Chorley BC, Euxton North: Con 41, Lab 39, UKIP 20
Peterborough UA, West: Con 40, Lab 35, UKIP 15, LD 7, Grn 3
Wealden DC, Hellingly: Ind(Soane) 50, Con 25, LD 25
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