Catalonia

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 29, 2015 7:35:19 GMT cibwr said:

Sept 27, 2015 20:15:10 GMT cogload said:

And not quite 50% of the vote on a t/out of 63%. Not really a mandate is it?

Its not a ringing endorsement of the union, and the parties favouring UDI got just under 50% of the vote, parties backing a referendum on it got around 11% - with probably at least 50% of the people supporting them wanting independence.

The election wasn't being loudly presented as a chance to endorse the union though.  As pointed out, Junts per si managed to get a result less than the sum of their parts.

[neilm]

Turnout was 77% rather than 63%, no?

[maxque]

Sept 29, 2015 7:58:40 GMT neilm said:

Turnout was 77% rather than 63%, no?

Yes, but for some reason, Cogload continues to quote the 6PM turnout when the polling stations closed a while after 6PM.

[cibwr]

Highest turn out for a Community election to date I believe. Anyway you spin it the unionists lost.

[neilm]

The loser here is Mas. How long JxSi can stick together is anyone's guess, and if he does try and form a CDC led administration if it all goes wrong, who will support him? Not the PP or the Cs, and Unio aren't a player now (possibly some members will come across). The CUP said yesterday that they wouldn't back his reinstatement so he's caught between a rock and a hard place.

[mboy]

Sept 29, 2015 10:52:30 GMT cibwr said:

Highest turn out for a Community election to date I believe. Anyway you spin it the unionists lost.

Yes, just like they did in Scotland.

[Richard Allen]

I am baffled by the contributions of some in this thread. Regardless of what anyone personally thinks about Catalonian Independence surely as democrats you accept that the people of Catalonia have the right to self determination and that a legally binding referendum should be held given that such a referendum is the clear will of the people?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 29, 2015 11:58:24 GMT Richard Allen said:

I am baffled by the contributions of some in this thread. Regardless of what anyone personally thinks about Catalonian Independence surely as democrats you accept that the people of Catalonia have the right to self determination and that a legally binding referendum should be held given that such a referendum is the clear will of the people?

Oh, I'm in favour of them having a referendum.  I'm also in favour of them lying in their beds when they've made them, and of letting the world know that their image as cuddly lefties raging against the tyranny of Madrid is really a desire (and a fair one at that) to not have to subsidise the poorer areas of Spain.  Including, somewhat ironically, their fellow Catalan speakers* in Valencia and the Balearics.

*deeply controversial

[bolbridge]

I am fascinated by the ability of Catalan voters to vote different ways in different elections. After Podemos took some CDC scalps in the summer (and C's underperformed), their coalition with ICV seems to have been a huge flop - presumably because the independence debate dominated the campaign.

C's did incredibly well and if another Catalan election were forced soon no doubt the PSC and PPC would be squeezed. But how will C's voters behave in the General Election? I suspect Rajoy's message will be a Cameroon 'coalition of chaos' type line - vs. leftists and separatists - probably very effective with centrist and another-separatist voters.

[Deleted]

Turnout was 77%. Apologies for that. I am sure there will be hard negotiations now, esp for a referendum. However the q remains is wouldn't the Spainish constitution have to change to accommodate one?

[Dan]

Does anyone know if former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola managed to get elected on the 'Together for Yes' ticket?

[bolbridge]

Sept 29, 2015 13:06:53 GMT bolbridge said:

I am fascinated by the ability of Catalan voters to vote different ways in different elections. After Podemos took some CDC scalps in the summer (and C's underperformed), their coalition with ICV seems to have been a huge flop - presumably because the independence debate dominated the campaign.

C's did incredibly well and if another Catalan election were forced soon no doubt the PSC and PPC would be squeezed. But how will C's voters behave in the General Election? I suspect Rajoy's message will be a Cameroon 'coalition of chaos' type line - vs. leftists and separatists - probably very effective with centrist and another-separatist voters.

That should have read anti-separatist.

[Khunanup]

Sept 29, 2015 14:58:54 GMT Dan said:

Does anyone know if former Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola managed to get elected on the 'Together for Yes' ticket?

He was right at the bottom of the list so I presume not.

[neilm]

Sept 29, 2015 12:11:16 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Sept 29, 2015 11:58:24 GMT Richard Allen said:

I am baffled by the contributions of some in this thread. Regardless of what anyone personally thinks about Catalonian Independence surely as democrats you accept that the people of Catalonia have the right to self determination and that a legally binding referendum should be held given that such a referendum is the clear will of the people?

Oh, I'm in favour of them having a referendum.  I'm also in favour of them lying in their beds when they've made them, and of letting the world know that their image as cuddly lefties raging against the tyranny of Madrid is really a desire (and a fair one at that) to not have to subsidise the poorer areas of Spain.  Including, somewhat ironically, their fellow Catalan speakers* in Valencia and the Balearics.

*deeply controversial

I'm not sure there image is of being cuddly lefties. Mas' party is probably a group that would appeal to you.

And, indeed, deeply controversial. To mix it up even more, go and tell a Catalan speaker that he's actually speaking Occitan (or an Aranese speaker that their's isn't really a language in its own right) and step back.

[neilm]

Sept 29, 2015 13:06:53 GMT bolbridge said:

I am fascinated by the ability of Catalan voters to vote different ways in different elections. After Podemos took some CDC scalps in the summer (and C's underperformed), their coalition with ICV seems to have been a huge flop - presumably because the independence debate dominated the campaign.

C's did incredibly well and if another Catalan election were forced soon no doubt the PSC and PPC would be squeezed. But how will C's voters behave in the General Election? I suspect Rajoy's message will be a Cameroon 'coalition of chaos' type line - vs. leftists and separatists - probably very effective with centrist and another-separatist voters.

The Cs are very much in favour of Spain sticking together ('Catalonia is my home, Spain is my country and the EU is my future') and for soft right voters who otherwise might back the CDC but don't want independence (and don't like the socially conservative stuff that Rajoy comes out with so don't like the PP) they offer a viable protest vote.

[Devil Wincarnate]

In fairness Neil, I was trying to get across the point that the Graun types see it as some kind of lefty freedom fighting, I entirely agree that Mas is nothing of the sort.

The curious mirror image is that the same people don't feel the same way about Flanders, which is in exactly the same position. But that will be due to the fact that nasty Christian Democrats and right-wingers are behind it, and they are of course Baaad Nationalists not Good Nationalists.

[neilm]

Aah OK, I'm with you

[mboy]

"Civic Nationalism" is the new Orwellian name for Guardian-supported nationalism.

[bolbridge]

Sept 30, 2015 8:33:36 GMT neilm said:

Sept 29, 2015 13:06:53 GMT bolbridge said:

I am fascinated by the ability of Catalan voters to vote different ways in different elections. After Podemos took some CDC scalps in the summer (and C's underperformed), their coalition with ICV seems to have been a huge flop - presumably because the independence debate dominated the campaign.

C's did incredibly well and if another Catalan election were forced soon no doubt the PSC and PPC would be squeezed. But how will C's voters behave in the General Election? I suspect Rajoy's message will be a Cameroon 'coalition of chaos' type line - vs. leftists and separatists - probably very effective with centrist and another-separatist voters.

The Cs are very much in favour of Spain sticking together ('Catalonia is my home, Spain is my country and the EU is my future') and for soft right voters who otherwise might back the CDC but don't want independence (and don't like the socially conservative stuff that Rajoy comes out with so don't like the PP) they offer a viable protest vote.

I'm not quite sure of your point - this doesn't contradict anything I said?

[neilm]

Sept 30, 2015 10:01:14 GMT bolbridge said:

Sept 30, 2015 8:33:36 GMT neilm said:

The Cs are very much in favour of Spain sticking together ('Catalonia is my home, Spain is my country and the EU is my future') and for soft right voters who otherwise might back the CDC but don't want independence (and don't like the socially conservative stuff that Rajoy comes out with so don't like the PP) they offer a viable protest vote.

I'm not quite sure of your point - this doesn't contradict anything I said?

Just adding to it.