By-elections - September 10th

[johnr]

Sept 11, 2015 0:08:28 GMT john07 said:

Sept 10, 2015 23:23:43 GMT greenhert said:

So disappointed-I was really hoping we would hold our seat on transfers....

There was not much of a surplus from the SNP to transfer and I can't see many Conservatives transferring to Green. There were not enough votes for the minor parties including Lib Dems to bridge the gap.

Creating the second vacancy was something of an own goal from the Greens.

I think this was their best chance of holding the seat. If it had been a straight vacancy, it was obvious the SNP would gain it. This way they had a chance by hoping Labour's vote would drop further, while making some transfers from the SNP.

[markgoodair]

www.edinburgh.gov.uk/downloads/file/6153/ward_12_-_leith_walk_by-election_results_2015

[Arthur Figgis]

Second preferences of the 17 Scottish Libertarian Party votes:

Greens 5
Labour 3
Conservative 2
Independent 1
Lib Dem 1
Non-transferable 5

[Tony Otim]

LD and Conservative transfers both broke marginally for Labour. Pre-referendum I suspect that this wouls have been the other way around. The irony is that I'm not sure the new Labour councillor is actually a unionist (The rest of her family were certainly very pro-indy).

Congratulations to Marion, who will make an excellent councillor.

Disappointing but not disastrous for us - we increased vote share and got comfortably over 1 quota for an all out election with a new candidate. Should get the seat back in 2017 with little problem.

Labour selections could be interesting, they are now heavily over-represented in at least 2 wards.

[maxque]

Midlothian turnout: 31.2%. Was 40.5% in 2012.

[john07]

Sept 11, 2015 5:28:46 GMT johnr said:

Sept 11, 2015 0:08:28 GMT john07 said:

Creating the second vacancy was something of an own goal from the Greens.

I think this was their best chance of holding the seat. If it had been a straight vacancy, it was obvious the SNP would gain it. This way they had a chance by hoping Labour's vote would drop further, while making some transfers from the SNP.

But the option to not resign the seat would have led to a straight SNP hold for the other seat.

[marksenior]

Minor result from yday Barwell PC St Marys ward ( Leicestershire ) LD gain from Lab

LD 207 Lab 172

May result 4 seats

Con 791 Lab 489/383/339 LD 370/365

[Davıd Boothroyd]

MIDLOTHIAN Midlothian West

Kelly Parry (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 1,540
Ian Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party) 945
Pauline Winchester (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 524
Daya Feldwick (Scottish Green Party) 372
Jane Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 162
David Tedford 25

First preference votes. No candidate has a quota.

[Tony Otim]

Sept 11, 2015 11:20:25 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

MIDLOTHIAN Midlothian West

Kelly Parry (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 1,540
Ian Miller (Labour and Co-operative Party) 945
Pauline Winchester (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 524
Daya Feldwick (Scottish Green Party) 372
Jane Davidson (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 162
David Tedford 25

First preference votes. No candidate has a quota.

SNP 43.2 (+3.5)
Lab 26.5 (-9.0)
Con 14.7 (+4.0)
Grn 10.4 (+5.2)
LD 4.5 (-1.2)
No Desc 0.7

[The Bishop]

So the Labour-SNP swings yesterday were in single figures, significantly less than in previous byelections since the GE.

Jez effect, or maybe Kez effect?

[lennon]

Sept 11, 2015 11:42:58 GMT The Bishop said:

So the Labour-SNP swings yesterday were in single figures, significantly less than in previous byelections since the GE.

Jez effect, or maybe Kez effect?

Or all the Royalist pomp on Wednesday...? (That's actually a genuine suggestion by the way... - positive feelings about HMQ leading to more Unionist thoughts)

[Tony Otim]

Sept 11, 2015 11:42:58 GMT The Bishop said:

So the Labour-SNP swings yesterday were in single figures, significantly less than in previous byelections since the GE.

Jez effect, or maybe Kez effect?

The Midlothian result is certainly a very good one, relatively speaking, for Labour. The swing in Edinburgh was always likely to be much lower than in many other parts and is roughly at the kind of level I would have expected, maybe slightly on the low side, but not noteworthily so. The latest Scottish poll also showed signs of movement in Labour's direction, so some encouragement. Next contests are Ayr and Aberdeen so we'll see how those go, before we can really say there's been an improvement.

[peterl]

According to Council's website

"Kelly Parry of the Scottish National Party was elected at Stage 4 with 1,701 votes. No candidate attained the quota of 1,785. However, as Kelly Parry attained a higher number of votes than the combined total votes credited to the other two remaining candidates."

No information on transfers though.

[peterl]

Looking back over this thread, I'm not sure anyone posted the full numbers for Sandwell Blackheath so here they are

Danny Millard Labour Party 915 ELECTED
Shirley Lesley Ching The Conservative Party Candidate 544
Ian Keeling UK Independence Party (UKIP) 287
Ben Groom Green Party 35

[David Ashforth]

"Recent" by-election? I'd say yesterday was very recent.
From Andrew Kennedy.

[No Offence Alan]

Sept 11, 2015 11:52:58 GMT lennon said:

Sept 11, 2015 11:42:58 GMT The Bishop said:

So the Labour-SNP swings yesterday were in single figures, significantly less than in previous byelections since the GE.

Jez effect, or maybe Kez effect?

Or all the Royalist pomp on Wednesday...? (That's actually a genuine suggestion by the way... - positive feelings about HMQ leading to more Unionist thoughts)

And don't forget Scotland losing to Georgia and Germany at football and Andy Murray getting knocked out of the US open.

[andrewteale]

Midlothian West details.

First preferences: SNP 1540 Lab 945 C 524 Grn 372 LD 162 Ind 25
After LD and Ind eliminated: SNP 1558 Lab 977 C 570 Grn 420
After Grn eliminated: SNP 1701 Lab 1082 C 618

[Davıd Boothroyd]

So one vote made the difference between requiring a further stage where the Tory was eliminated.

[J.G.Harston]

Sept 11, 2015 18:08:44 GMT David Ashforth said:

"Recent" by-election? I'd say yesterday was very recent.
From Andrew Kennedy.

Pah. Crap hurried leaflet, they can't even get the phone numbers correct. London's had 8-digit telephone numbers for 15 years. They all look too young to even remember 7-digit London phone numbers.

[Arthur Figgis]

0207 and 0208 are one of my pet hates. I don't use the services of any company that advertises its 'phone number like such.