Non-sectarian NI

[iain]

What would the politics of Northern Ireland look like without the sectarianism we currently see? I presume most seats would be safely Tory, with the exceptions being (maybe, I haven't looked into it) the Belfast seats, North Down and Foyle. Could the Lib Dems have made an impact in any of the rural areas? I presume that in a situation more like Scotland or Wales most of the western seats would be Con-Nat marginals, possibly becoming safer may in recent times.

[Pete Whitehead]

North Down would be the most safely Tory seat though its the sort of area you could imagine the Lib Dems making a nuisance of themselves. I think all the Belfast seats would be demographically disposed to Labour, South having fallen to them in 1997 and again this year following a Lib Dem interegnum from 2005. Foyle would be Labour, maybe Newry & Armagh too and Upper Bann possibly. The rural seats west of the Bann could be the sort of areas that had residual Liberal strength in the manner of the Scottish highlands or West Wales, but in suggesting they may be Con-Nat marginals, you are surely abandoning your initial premise?

[iain]

Jul 17, 2015 20:52:30 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

in suggesting they may be Con-Nat marginals, you are surely abandoning your initial premise?

Indeed I was.

[mondialito]

I would imagine Belfast being mostly Labour, with South being the least Labour-inclined historically (being solidly Tory until '97 before following Pete's timeline). Foyle would be Labour, although I think East Londonderry could be a marginal where differential turnout between the different areas makes the difference.

[greatkingrat]

There would only be three Belfast seats for a start.

[kevinlarkin]

Without the sectarianism, Northern Ireland would have around 50 seats in the Dáil. The party system would have developed in a different way.

[Harry Hayfield]

If you assume that all U candidates are Con, all Nat candidates are Labour and Alliance are Lib Dem, then Northern Ireland 2015 would have been as follows:

Conservative Wins: Belfast East, Belfast North, East Antrim, East Londonderry, Lagan Valley, North Antrim, North Down, South Antrim, Strangford, Upper Bann
Labour Wins: Belfast South, Belfast West, Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Foyle, Mid Ulster, Newry and Armagh, South Down, West Tyrone

Vote Shares: Conservatives 45%, Labour 38%, Liberal Democrats 9%, Others 8%

[Richard Allen]

Jul 23, 2015 18:12:56 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

If you assume that all U candidates are Con, all Nat candidates are Labour and Alliance are Lib Dem, then Northern Ireland 2015 would have been as follows:

Such an assumption is of course palpably absurd.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Without sectarianism, would Northern Ireland even be recognisable? Sectarianism is basic to its history and identity, so it makes about as much sense as asking how Liverpool would vote if it was in Uttar Pradesh.

[neilm]

Jul 23, 2015 20:24:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Without sectarianism, would Northern Ireland even be recognisable? Sectarianism is basic to its history and identity, so it makes about as much sense as asking how Liverpool would vote if it was in Uttar Pradesh.

What about if Bradford was in Uttar Pradesh?

[Deleted]

Jul 23, 2015 20:24:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Without sectarianism, would Northern Ireland even be recognisable? Sectarianism is basic to its history and identity, so it makes about as much sense as asking how Liverpool would vote if it was in Uttar Pradesh.

Do not know how they would vote, but could see them getting knocked out the cup by Mahindra United.

[Deleted]

If the fundamentals were all different, then everything would have turned out differently.

What would Africa look like if all the inhabitants were Chinese?

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Northern Ireland, as it was initially founded, was defined by sectarianism. Without sectarianism, Northern Ireland could never have come into being.

A more interesting of this nature is what would have happened when the rest of Ireland had stayed in the UK? It goes without saying that had NI become part of the Republic in 1922 then the politics of the Republic would have developed in a very, very different fashion than what occurred. 

[Sibboleth]

Jul 23, 2015 20:24:54 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Without sectarianism, would Northern Ireland even be recognisable? Sectarianism is basic to its history and identity, so it makes about as much sense as asking how Liverpool would vote if it was in Uttar Pradesh.

Samajwadi Party.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jul 24, 2015 17:12:52 GMT Ghyl Tarvoke said:

Northern Ireland, as it was initially founded, was defined by sectarianism. Without sectarianism, Northern Ireland could never have come into being.

A more interesting of this nature is what would have happened when the rest of Ireland had stayed in the UK? It goes without saying that had NI become part of the Republic in 1922 then the politics of the Republic would have developed in a very, very different fashion than what occurred. 

Presumably if Ireland had never become independent you would have got rather more industrial development than actually happened, both because of the general direction of post-war industrial planning and because costs there would have been cheaper. However, even accounting for that you'd still have much less industry than was the norm in the UK, so Labour would have found it difficult to put down roots outside Dublin, Belfast and perhaps Cork and Limerick. Unless of course the medium for Labour in Ireland became agricultural trade unions, but if that was the case the effect would probably have been greater on Labour than on Ireland.

I assume historical factors would probably have kept the Tories weak outside the north, and if Home Rule was settled in (the only way you could avoid independence) then the IPP might eventually have faded away. I could see if settling down to a similar basis to South West England, with the Tories increasingly becoming the predominant party but with strong Lib Dem challenges possible just about everywhere.

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

Jul 24, 2015 18:59:51 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jul 24, 2015 17:12:52 GMT Ghyl Tarvoke said:

Northern Ireland, as it was initially founded, was defined by sectarianism. Without sectarianism, Northern Ireland could never have come into being.

A more interesting of this nature is what would have happened when the rest of Ireland had stayed in the UK? It goes without saying that had NI become part of the Republic in 1922 then the politics of the Republic would have developed in a very, very different fashion than what occurred. 

Presumably if Ireland had never become independent you would have got rather more industrial development than actually happened, both because of the general direction of post-war industrial planning and because costs there would have been cheaper. However, even accounting for that you'd still have much less industry than was the norm in the UK, so Labour would have found it difficult to put down roots outside Dublin, Belfast and perhaps Cork and Limerick. Unless of course the medium for Labour in Ireland became agricultural trade unions, but if that was the case the effect would probably have been greater on Labour than on Ireland.

I assume historical factors would probably have kept the Tories weak outside the north, and if Home Rule was settled in (the only way you could avoid independence) then the IPP might eventually have faded away. I could see if settling down to a similar basis to South West England, with the Tories increasingly becoming the predominant party but with strong Lib Dem challenges possible just about everywhere.

I would assume that Ireland's party system would remain divorced from the rest of the UK, and Labour would remain weak in Ireland (although not as weak as they eventually became). But, yes, it goes without saying that Ireland would have developed upon very different economic lines. Not only with further industrialization during WWII but the growth strategy of the Irish state since 1960 would have been impossible had Ireland remained part of the UK (as it primarily depends on tax advantage). I take though when you are focusing on politics in Ireland you are missing something important here - the presence of 50+ Southern Irish MPs (I would assume that Ireland would take a reduction in MP's post-home rule) on the Westminster benches, during periods of British history when there were weak minority or small majority governments. Had the IPP survived in the 20s it could have kept the Liberals on longer and better life support than it got (as it would be unlikely to make deals with Labour or the Tories, as long as the Tories  were identified with Unionists), for instance.