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Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2015 8:30:44 GMT
Electorates don't do guilt they do self interest. They nudge, they complain and they have a laugh. That explains Rochester, Eastleigh and Corby. They made a point about flirtation with UKIP, the coalition support and Louise Vanity; then comes the main event and Nicola and Ed trumped everything. Now back to settled state and no structural concerns for 5-years, so back to best candidate, local celeb, having a laugh and flirtations with minor parties...like the LDs.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Jul 17, 2015 8:50:45 GMT
Electorates don't do guilt they do self interest. They nudge, they complain and they have a laugh. That explains Rochester, Eastleigh and Corby. They made a point about flirtation with UKIP, the coalition support and Louise Vanity; then comes the main event and Nicola and Ed trumped everything. Now back to settled state and no structural concerns for 5-years, so back to best candidate, local celeb, having a laugh and flirtations with minor parties...like the LDs. Then, why UKIP vote is going down quite sharply? |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 17, 2015 9:54:24 GMT
Gorleston St Andrews Con 42.7% (+15.3) Lab 37.7% (+1.8) UKIP 13.9% (-22.8) LD 3.2% (+3.2) Grn 2.5% (+2.5) Clearly a good Con result. A poor one for the other two major parties. Its bad for Ukip but this is OK for us - its usually a pretty solid Conservative ward which we don't win. The last election was clearly at a time when Ukip were riding high and took their vote disproportionately from the Tories |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Jul 17, 2015 10:03:00 GMT
Greystoke and Hesket
Con 635 55.1% (+2.2)
LD 518 44.9% (+22.1)
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Post by marksenior on Jul 17, 2015 10:07:32 GMT
Clearly a good Con result. A poor one for the other two major parties. Its bad for Ukip but this is OK for us - its usually a pretty solid Conservative ward which we don't win. The last election was clearly at a time when Ukip were riding high and took their vote disproportionately from the Tories That is simply not true , the St Andrews part elected Labour councillors solidly until 2004 and also in 2011 and 2012 |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 17, 2015 10:10:32 GMT
Its bad for Ukip but this is OK for us - its usually a pretty solid Conservative ward which we don't win. The last election was clearly at a time when Ukip were riding high and took their vote disproportionately from the Tories That is simply not true , the St Andrews part elected Labour councillors solidly until 2004 and also in 2011 and 2012 But it is equally true that the Tories won this division back in 2005, which suggests the other (mostly non-Labour) part of it counts for more. |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jul 17, 2015 10:15:45 GMT
Its bad for Ukip but this is OK for us - its usually a pretty solid Conservative ward which we don't win. The last election was clearly at a time when Ukip were riding high and took their vote disproportionately from the Tories That is simply not true , the St Andrews part elected Labour councillors solidly until 2004 and also in 2011 and 2012 However the current County Division has never been held by Labour. Unscientifically there appears to have been pretty straight UKIP to Conservative switching since 2013. |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 17, 2015 11:33:10 GMT
A minor result Brecon TC St John West ward Labour hold
Lab 288 Lib Dem 286 previous Labour unopposed
2012 for the combined St John CC divisiob
Lab 778 Ind 158 LD 154
and 2008 Ind 528 Lab 430 LD 252 Con 250
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 17, 2015 13:55:09 GMT
That is simply not true , the St Andrews part elected Labour councillors solidly until 2004 and also in 2011 and 2012 But it is equally true that the Tories won this division back in 2005, which suggests the other (mostly non-Labour) part of it counts for more. Yes, but it's not solidly Tory - Tory-inclined marginal is more like it. |
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 17, 2015 17:13:21 GMT
Its bad for Ukip but this is OK for us - its usually a pretty solid Conservative ward which we don't win. The last election was clearly at a time when Ukip were riding high and took their vote disproportionately from the Tories That is simply not true , the St Andrews part elected Labour councillors solidly until 2004 and also in 2011 and 2012 And Gorleston doesn't, so put the two together and its not a ward we usually win. Frankly, with the current leadership election etc I don't expect very much in the way of concentration on by elections - we could learn from you in terms of campaign brevity! |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 17, 2015 17:14:27 GMT
A minor result Brecon TC St John West ward Labour hold Lab 288 Lib Dem 286 previous Labour unopposed 2012 for the combined St John CC divisiob Lab 778 Ind 158 LD 154 and 2008 Ind 528 Lab 430 LD 252 Con 250 An encouraging result for Kirsty. |
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Post by middleenglander on Jul 17, 2015 21:30:29 GMT
A look at Gorleston / St Andrews since 2010. | Ward / Division |
| Party | 2010 DC | 2011 DC | 2012 DC | 2013 CC | 2014 DC | 2015 DC | 2015 CC | | Gorleston |
| Conservative | 1,687 |
| 498 |
| 563 |
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| Labour | 954 |
| 374 |
| 420 |
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| UKIP |
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| 450 |
| 587 |
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| Green |
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| 83 |
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| Total votes | 2,641 |
| 1,322 |
| 1,653 |
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| | St Andrews |
| Conservative |
| 567 | 250 |
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| 660 |
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| Labour |
| 621 | 539 |
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| 764 |
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| UKIP
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| 194
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| 554 |
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| Green |
| | |
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| 125 |
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| Total votes |
| 1,188 | 983 | |
| 2,103 | | | Gorleston / |
| Conservative |
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| 748 | 653 |
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| 876 | | St Andrews |
| Labour |
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| 913 | 854 |
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| 773 |
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| UKIP |
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| 644 | 874 |
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| 285 |
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| Liberal Democrat
Green |
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| 66
51 |
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| Total votes |
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| 2,305 | 2,381 |
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| 2,051 |
The Conservatives did not "win" the Division in either 2012 or 2013 and almost certainly would not have in 2014. The elections in 2010 and 2011 had no UKIP candidates so any assessment would be pure supposition. |
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Post by norfolkfeller on Jul 18, 2015 16:29:11 GMT
That is simply not true , the St Andrews part elected Labour councillors solidly until 2004 and also in 2011 and 2012 However the current County Division has never been held by Labour. Unscientifically there appears to have been pretty straight UKIP to Conservative switching since 2013. There has been. The Labour Party locally is concerned that the Tories seem to be winning UKIP votes back in greater numbers than ourselves, with pretty polarised opinions on why that might be. Currently the CLP is in flux, with a new leadership voted in. Something not taken in to account here is that new build housing has been slowly changing the demographics of the division over the past five years. |
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cibwr
Plaid Cymru
Posts: 3,589
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Post by cibwr on Jul 18, 2015 16:51:04 GMT
A minor result Brecon TC St John West ward Labour hold Lab 288 Lib Dem 286 previous Labour unopposed 2012 for the combined St John CC divisiob Lab 778 Ind 158 LD 154 and 2008 Ind 528 Lab 430 LD 252 Con 250 An encouraging result for Kirsty. I thinks she is safe in her Assembly seat - personal votes count for a lot in Brecon and Radnor. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 18, 2015 21:43:38 GMT
An encouraging result for Kirsty. I thinks she is safe in her Assembly seat - personal votes count for a lot in Brecon and Radnor. IVMHYAC (I very much hope you are correct  ) |
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Post by anthony on Jul 22, 2015 8:37:12 GMT
having a laugh and flirtations with minor parties...like the LDs. As I think I've said to you before Carlton - this would be a good line, if it weren't given by a UKIP member! |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 22, 2015 9:23:42 GMT
having a laugh and flirtations with minor parties...like the LDs. As I think I've said to you before Carlton - this would be a good line, if it weren't given by a UKIP member! Anthony...It is either 'a good line' or it isn't. The persuasion of the person saying it does not matter. Do you broadly agree with what I said in the full post or do you dispute it? |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 22, 2015 11:09:58 GMT
As I think I've said to you before Carlton - this would be a good line, if it weren't given by a UKIP member! Anthony...It is either 'a good line' or it isn't. The persuasion of the person saying it does not matter. Do you broadly agree with what I said in the full post or do you dispute it? Well I would dispute it . The previous parliament was an example of protest votes going to minor protest parties such as UKIP against the recognised establishment parties amongst which the Lib Dems were counted . The GE was those votes generally returning to Labour and Conservative but not the Lib Dems . We are too early in this parliament for major protesting but it is clear that the constraints operating against the Lib Dems in the last parliament and at the GE are no longer present . Meanwhile the UKIP vote seems to be evaporating faster than newly elected UKIP councillors jumping ship ( I note another has gone who was only elected in May in Thurrock ) . When the protest votes really begin later in the parliament it will be interesting where they go to but it is far too early to say . |
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Post by anthony on Jul 22, 2015 18:57:46 GMT
Anthony...It is either 'a good line' or it isn't. The persuasion of the person saying it does not matter. Do you broadly agree with what I said in the full post or do you dispute it? I think a line can be "good" if it's amusing, without worrying about its accuracy - it's your opinion. As it happens, I don't think either the Lib Dems or UKIP are "minor parties", but if we are, then UKIP certainly are! |
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 23, 2015 13:47:29 GMT
Anthony...It is either 'a good line' or it isn't. The persuasion of the person saying it does not matter. Do you broadly agree with what I said in the full post or do you dispute it? I think a line can be "good" if it's amusing, without worrying about its accuracy - it's your opinion. As it happens, I don't think either the Lib Dems or UKIP are "minor parties", but if we are, then UKIP certainly are! Agreed. There is a bit of a tendency in British politics for it to be thought that only certain factions may say certain things or that it is 'wrong'to speak up for or out against in contravention to the party line of one's faction. I am strongly opposed to such thinking. The term 'Minor parties' feels disparaging but I don't think that it should be felt like that any more than if you were a diamond or club playing card in a pack? Yes,we are minor and outranked by you in history and MPs. Short term we have more votes and certainly more MEPs. |
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