By-elections, 25th June

[Robert Waller]

From Middleenglander's June Prediction Competition thread.

June 25th
- 1 by-election - Cambridgeshire, Romsey
- and 1 deferred election - South Kesteven, Market & West Deeping for 3 seats

Anyone any more details - gratefully received, I'm sure.

[maxque]

Countermanded

Market & West Deeping - South Kesteven DC - countermanded following the death of Reg Howard (Independent), chairman of the council, district councillor for 24, town councillor for 31 years and 13-term mayor of Market Deeping

2011: Con 959/766, Ind 847/844/533, Grn 622/330/302
2007: Ind 903/806, Con 827, Grn 667, Lab 360
2006by: Con replacing Lab unopposed
2003: Lab, Con, Ind elected unopposed

Ashley Baxter (Independent)
Adam Brookes (Liberal Democrats)
Bob Broughton (Independent)
William Learoyd (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Nick Neilson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Robert O‘Farrell (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
David Shelton (Independent)
Roger Woodbridge (UK Independence Party (UKIP))


By-election

Romsey - Cambridgeshire CC - due to the resignation of Kilian Bourke (Liberal Democrat). He got a new job in London.

2013: LD 1118, Lab 741, Grn 138, Cambridge Socialists 118, UKIP 118, Con 103
2009: LD 829, Lab 493, Ind 425, Grn 297, Con 270, UKIP 96
2008by: LD 781, Lab 597, Con 289, Grn 237, Left List 207
2006by: LD 955, Lab 656, Grn 265, Con 258, Respect 240
2005: LD 1668, Lab 1235, Grn 402, Con 359, UKIP 45

Debbie Aitchison (Green Party)
Richard Jeffs (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Nichola Martin (Liberal Democrat)
Zoe Moghadas (Labour Party)
Rahatul Raja (The Conservative Party Candidate)

Sorry, posted my own thread 6 minutes after you (didn't saw it). Will now proceed to try to delete mine.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

In the case of Romsey, the county electoral division has the same boundaries as the city ward of the same name.

2015: Lab 1,636, L Dem 1,314, GP 951, C 436.
2014: Lab 1,205, L Dem 1,093, GP 394, C 206.
2012: L Dem 1,020, Lab 813, Cambridge Socialists 457, C 175.
2011: Lab 996, L Dem 870, GP 411, C 360, Cambridge Socialists 356.
2010: L Dem 1,615, Lab* 928, GP 697, C 600, Cambridge Socialists 404.
2008: L Dem 791, Lab 535, Left List 328, C 285, GP 189.
2007: L Dem 774, Lab 496, Respect 358, GP 271, C 238.
2006 (two vacancies): L Dem 1,065, 815; Lab 623, 491; GP 358, 216; Respect 294, 268; C 235, 216.
2004 (three vacancies): L Dem 1,192, 1,184, 1,125; Lab 746, 658, 577; GP 394, 360; C 206, 186, 172; UKIP 119.

* Readers are requested to research the identity of the candidate

[Pete Whitehead]

For a bonus, what do EAL and myself have in common in relation to the city ward (but not the county division)?

[East Anglian Lefty]

Interestingly, 1998 saw the worst Tory result ever in the ward, though I think it's safe to say Pete doesn't bear the blame for that.

[andrewteale]

Jun 23, 2015 12:19:06 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

For a bonus, what do EAL and myself have in common in relation to the city ward (but not the county division)?

I noticed that while putting the preview together and did wonder if it was a coincidence.

[Pete Whitehead]

EAL has answered half the conundrum I posed, because the connection wasn't just that we had both contested this ward but that we both achieved the lowest ever percentage shares for our respective parties in city council elections (I made that distinction because the Labour share was slightly lower in the county council division in 2009 while my share (as well as numerical vote) was emphatically the lowest in any election)

[East Anglian Lefty]

I honestly hadn't noticed that. Still, I'm fairly sure that back when it was a town council, a succession of anonymous railwaymen did worse than me in the early 20th century. So that's something to cling to.

[Andrew_S]

1998 Cambridge results:

www.gwydir.demon.co.uk/results/cam98.htm

[Pete Whitehead]

The better results archive is here www.crosenstiel.webspace.virginmedia.com/camelect/index.htm

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Turnout in Romsey is 32.5%.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

CAMBRIDGESHIRE Romsey

Zoe Moghadas (Labour Party) 829 (37.3%)
Nichola Martin (Liberal Democrat) 782 (35.2%)
Debbie Aitchison (Green Party) 467 (21.0%)
Rahatul Raja (The Conservative Party Candidate) 100 (4.5%)
Richard Jeffs (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 46 (2.1%)

[Davıd Boothroyd]

The top three in Market and West Deeping are:

Bob Broughton (Ind) 612
Ashley Baxter (Ind) 609
Nick Nielsen (C) 605

[Davıd Boothroyd]

SOUTH KESTEVEN Market and West Deeping

Bob Broughton (Independent) 612
Ashley Baxter (Independent) 609
Nick Neilson (Conservative Party Candidate) 605
David Shelton (Independent) 426
Adam Brookes (Liberal Democrats) 229
William Learoyd (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 224
Robert O‘Farrell (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 129
Roger Woodbridge (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 113

Averages method gives:
Ind Broughton 23.2%
Ind Baxter 23.1%
C 22.9%
Ind Shelton 16.2%
L Dem 8.7%
UKIP 5.9%

[Anonyman]

A reasonably narrow loss. More or less as expected, although it's still disappointing not to hold.

[linders]

Another two seats potentially chucked away by failing to stand a full slate. Very frustrating.

[marksenior]

A couple of minor results from last Thursday

Falmouth TC Penwerris ward

LD 252 Lab 221 Ind 120 Meb K 71 Lib Dem gain from Independent

Seaford TC East ward deferred election for 4 seats

UKIP 331/291/279/259 Con 320/307/304/246 Ind 313 LD 302/283/281/277 Ind for Seaford 252/218/217/194 Lab 84/74

A double byelection in this ward in March 2014 had the result

UKIP 496/457 LD 296/270 Con 280/271 Lab 102/94

and a prior by election in March 2013

UKIP 796 LD 412 Con 376

Although the Conservatives had won all 4 seats in 2011 , they had lost all 4 in by elections post that date so the deferred election has 2 UKIP losses to Conservative and 1 to an Independent

[andrewteale]

Jun 25, 2015 23:51:29 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

SOUTH KESTEVEN Market and West Deeping

Bob Broughton (Independent) 612
Ashley Baxter (Independent) 609
Nick Neilson (Conservative Party Candidate) 605
David Shelton (Independent) 426
Adam Brookes (Liberal Democrats) 229
William Learoyd (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 224
Robert O‘Farrell (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 129
Roger Woodbridge (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 113

Averages method gives:
Ind Broughton 23.2%
Ind Baxter 23.1%
C 22.9%
Ind Shelton 16.2%
L Dem 8.7%
UKIP 5.9%

As a footnote to this (since I'm putting South Kesteven together at the moment) the declaration of result of poll has the votes for Learoyd and O'Farrell the other way round. O'Farrell was from the Deepings and the other two UKIP candidates gave addresses in Bourne, so it makes sense for O'Farrell to finish top of the UKIP slate.