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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 11, 2015 22:50:13 GMT
We'll get Stepney Green first. So here goes "just a bit of fun" (c) Peter Snow.
In 2014, when Lutfur Rahman led John Biggs by10.6% on first preferences, and the equivalent of 3.9% on second preferences, THF won Stepney Green by 16.7%. So a rough ballpark figure would be that if the Independent in Stepney Green is less than 6% ahead of Labour, then Labour look like being ahead in the Mayoral vote first prefs, and if they are less than 13% ahead, Labour may be ahead on second prefs.
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Post by middleenglander on Jun 11, 2015 23:47:45 GMT
Turnout in the Stepney Green by-election is 47.37%.
Implies around 3,850 votes.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 11, 2015 23:47:57 GMT
Turnout in Stepney Green is 47%. That is impressive, also given that it was 55% last year. Reports from other parts of the borough are of low turnout.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jun 11, 2015 23:55:09 GMT
Interesting if true - you wouldn't think a local election would drive mayoral turnout in Tower Hamlets, and the ward doesn't look to be notably more Bangladeshi than the borough as a whole.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 11, 2015 23:59:47 GMT
Not all the Bangladeshis in Tower Hamlets are Lutfurites, but in Stepney Green most Bangladeshi voters supported THF in 2014.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 12, 2015 0:02:49 GMT
Turnout for mayoral election: 37.7%
So not as low as all that. Still too early to say which way it's going.
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Jun 12, 2015 0:49:41 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 12, 2015 0:53:00 GMT
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Post by Ben Walker on Jun 12, 2015 1:06:35 GMT
Assuming Labour win the Mayoralty, will John Biggs have to resign his City and East GLA seat?
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 12, 2015 1:45:14 GMT
/photo/1
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Post by keithn on Jun 12, 2015 4:44:11 GMT
SUTTON Wallington South Steve Cook (Liberal Democrats) 1,251 Jim Simms (The Conservative Party Candidate) 936 Sarah Gwynn (Labour Party) 181 Duncan Mattey (Independent) 180 Andy Beadle (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 164 Rosa Rajendran (Green Party) 122 Only a council by-election but this was important for the Lib Dems to hold to show we're not dead yet and can still fight against resurgent Conservatives. |
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 12, 2015 5:51:58 GMT
Assuming Labour win the Mayoralty, will John Biggs have to resign his City and East GLA seat? I don't know but an educated guess would suggest he'll "do a Boris" and serve out the remainder of his term (although I'd imagine he would resign as Leader of the Labour Group on the GLA). |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jun 12, 2015 6:31:58 GMT
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wallington
Green
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Post by wallington on Jun 12, 2015 6:37:58 GMT
SUTTON Wallington South Steve Cook (Liberal Democrats) 1,251 Jim Simms (The Conservative Party Candidate) 936 Sarah Gwynn (Labour Party) 181 Duncan Mattey (Independent) 180 Andy Beadle (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 164 Rosa Rajendran (Green Party) 122 Only a council by-election but this was important for the Lib Dems to hold to show we're not dead yet and can still fight against resurgent Conservatives. The Lib Dems flooded the ward with activists, far more than the Conservatives. A friend, a local Lib Dem activist, told me they had people coming in from across the country. Nothing wrong with that, it's fantastic for them. However, this is a safe Lib Dem ward and the result was expected. I am pleased with the Green result, it's the highest total we have ever got in a Sutton by-election, we found it hard to be heard and of course it would have been nice not to finish bottom of the pack. We expected to be squeezed, although i'm pleased the vote did hold up. We had several problems from the start, but our small team gave it a good go. UKIP looked very upset with how they did, considering they put out 3 leaflets to our one and a bit, they were hoping to do much better). Cllr Nick Mattey was very friendly with the Conservatives at the end (the independent was hoping for "about 300 votes"). I wonder if he will be an independent much longer.... |
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dizz
Labour
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Post by dizz on Jun 12, 2015 7:24:54 GMT
Gives Lab a majority of the Councillors - 23 of 45. |
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Post by marksenior on Jun 12, 2015 8:03:05 GMT
Only a council by-election but this was important for the Lib Dems to hold to show we're not dead yet and can still fight against resurgent Conservatives. The Lib Dems flooded the ward with activists, far more than the Conservatives. A friend, a local Lib Dem activist, told me they had people coming in from across the country. Nothing wrong with that, it's fantastic for them. However, this is a safe Lib Dem ward and the result was expected. I am pleased with the Green result, it's the highest total we have ever got in a Sutton by-election, we found it hard to be heard and of course it would have been nice not to finish bottom of the pack. We expected to be squeezed, although i'm pleased the vote did hold up. We had several problems from the start, but our small team gave it a good go. UKIP looked very upset with how they did, considering they put out 3 leaflets to our one and a bit, they were hoping to do much better). Cllr Nick Mattey was very friendly with the Conservatives at the end (the independent was hoping for "about 300 votes"). I wonder if he will be an independent much longer.... Whilst the Lib Dems have won Wallington South consistently for a number of years it would be stretching it to describe it as a safe seat . The majority in 2006 was fewer than 200 . The Green vote % was the lowest in the ward since pre 2002 . |
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Tony Otim
Green
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2015 8:13:17 GMT
I think we can almost all unite in celebrating the mayoral result.
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Post by keithn on Jun 12, 2015 8:28:28 GMT
The Lib Dems flooded the ward with activists, far more than the Conservatives. A friend, a local Lib Dem activist, told me they had people coming in from across the country. Nothing wrong with that, it's fantastic for them. However, this is a safe Lib Dem ward and the result was expected. I am pleased with the Green result, it's the highest total we have ever got in a Sutton by-election, we found it hard to be heard and of course it would have been nice not to finish bottom of the pack. We expected to be squeezed, although i'm pleased the vote did hold up. We had several problems from the start, but our small team gave it a good go. UKIP looked very upset with how they did, considering they put out 3 leaflets to our one and a bit, they were hoping to do much better). Cllr Nick Mattey was very friendly with the Conservatives at the end (the independent was hoping for "about 300 votes"). I wonder if he will be an independent much longer.... Whilst the Lib Dems have won Wallington South consistently for a number of years it would be stretching it to describe it as a safe seat . The majority in 2006 was fewer than 200 . The Green vote % was the lowest in the ward since pre 2002 . Yes, there is no such thing as a Lib Dem safe seat anywhere. We have to work hard for everything we can get. |
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pl
Non-Aligned
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Post by pl on Jun 12, 2015 8:56:02 GMT
Excellent result and not a bad result for Peter Golds either. I would have been sorely tempted to vote for Briggs just as a defense of democracy. Biggs got lucky, really lucky, especially on the first prefs. To be less than 1,500 first preferences ahead after everything that has gone on is a weak performance. He ran a lacklustre campaign, with relatively poor literature. I'm not going to give advice to Biggs here, but his inability to squeeze other parties further on a low poll should worry him. The Conservative share of the vote actually inched UP from 2014. Big surprise of the day for me was just the level of utter and total apathy is some parts of the Borough. For all the media attention, interest was surprisingly low. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jun 12, 2015 9:00:33 GMT
Excellent result and not a bad result for Peter Golds either. I would have been sorely tempted to vote for Briggs just as a defense of democracy. Biggs got lucky, really lucky, especially on the first prefs. To be less than 1,500 first preferences ahead after everything that has gone on is a weak performance. He ran a lacklustre campaign, with relatively poor literature. I'm not going to give advice to Biggs here, but his inability to squeeze other parties further on a low poll should worry him. The Conservative share of the vote actually inched UP from 2014. Big surprise of the day for me was just the level of utter and total apathy is some parts of the Borough. For all the media attention, interest was surprisingly low. Except with this voting system, especially when it is crystal clear who the top two candidates will be, first preferences are harder to squeeze and less important to do so. He won the votes that transferred by approximately 9:1 which is rather more than luck. |
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