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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2015 19:56:32 GMT
We used to hear about the Progressive majority. It was based on the deeply flawed assumption that all those voting for the Lib Dems and Labour perceived themselves as 'progressives' or on the left. Thus there was almost always a progressive majority at the ballot box, even in the Thatcher years, the Labour, Liberal SNP etc combined vote was well over 50%. In 2010 it was approaching 60%. Now in 2015 the combined Conervative and UKIP vote is just under 50% and adding in the DUP and assorted small parties such as the English Democrats take it over 50%. This has yielded rather a lot of gains for 'the right' This was the result by individual constituencies in 2010  Excluding Northern Ireland for obvious reasons, Progressives* would have had 417 of 632 seats while non-progressives* would have ahd 215 *Progressives = Labour, Lib Dem, Green, SNP, Plaid and any small left wing parties such as TUSC, SLP etc non-Progressives = Conservative, UKIP, BNP, ED The result in 2015  Now the non-progressive majority have 355 seaats against 277 Progressives |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2015 19:59:23 GMT
Seats changing hands
Aberconwy
Amber Valley
Barrow in Furness
Bedford
Berwick upon Tweed
Birmingham Northfield
Bishop Auckland
Blackpool North & Cleveleys
Blackpool South
Bolton North East
Bolton West
Bosworth
Bristol NW
Broxtowe
Bury North
Calder Valley
Camborne & Redruth
Cannock Chase
Canterbury
Cardiff North
Carlisle
Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South
Cheadle
Cheltenham
Chester, City of
Chippenham
Cleethorpes
Clwyd West
Colchester
Colne Valley
Copeland
Corby
Cornwall North
Croydon Central
Dagenham & Rainham
Derby North
Derbyshire NE
Devon North
Dewsbury
Dorset Mid
Dorset South
Eastbourne
Eastleigh
Elmet & Rothwell
Eltham
Enfield North
Erewash
Filton & Bradley Stoke
Finchley & Golders Green
Gedling
Gloucester
Great Grimsby
Halesowen & Rowley Regis
Halifax
Harrogate & Knaresborough
Harrow East
Hartlepool
Hastings & Rye
Hazel Grove
Hendon
Hexham
Heywood & Middleton
High Peak
Hyndburn
Ipswich
Keighley
Kingswood
Lincoln
Loughborough
Mansfield
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland
Milton Keynes North
Milton Keynes South
Montgomeryshire
Morecambe & Lunesdale
Morley & Outwood
Newcastle under Lyme
Newton Abbot
Northampton North
Northampton South
Norwich North
Nuneaton
Oxford West & Abingdon
Pendle
Penistone & Stocksbridge
Peterborough
Plymouth Moor View
Plymouth Sutton & Devonport
Portsmouth North
Preseeli Pembrokeshire
Pudsey
Reading East
Reading West
Rossendale & Darwen
Rother Valley
Rugby
St Albans
St Austell & Newquay
St Ives
Scarborough & Whitby
Scunthorpe
Sherwood
Shipley
Shrewsbury & Atcham
Solihull
Somerset NE
Somerton & Frome
Southampton Itchen
Stafford
Stevenage
Stockton South
Stoke North
Stoke South
Stroud
Sutton & Cheam
Swindon South
Taunton Deane
Telford
Thornbury & Yate
Torbay
Truro & Falmouth
Vale of Clwyd
Vale of Glamorgan
Walsall North
Warrington South
Warwick & Leamington
Warwickshire North
Watford
Waveney
Weaver Vale
Wells
Weston Super Mare
Wirral West
Wolverhampton SW
Worcester
Workington
Wyre Forest
Yeovil
York Outer
In Chorley the two blocs were tied with Con/UKIP and Lab/LD/Green both polling 25787
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Post by Andrew_S on May 9, 2015 20:23:49 GMT
In Great Britain the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 50.66%. 15,188,670 votes out of a total of 29,980,107.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,889
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Post by The Bishop on May 9, 2015 20:29:04 GMT
Some of those are "red kippers" of course, but anyway......
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 9, 2015 20:56:11 GMT
Of course but of course plenty of Lib Dem voters are right of centre and were when *you* were trying to co-opt them into your 'progressive majority (not to mention some pretty right wing Labour voters).
IJABOF of course and when I talk about *you* I don't mean you personally because I've always credited you with too much intelligence ever to have bought into this Progressive majority bullshit in the first place
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on May 10, 2015 8:55:57 GMT
Thanks for producing this. I'm tired of hearing this hackneyed rubbish and I'll use it today with a person I know who has been bitching since the early hours of Friday.
He works in a university so obviously is disengaged with the real world anyway.
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Post by brothersideways on May 11, 2015 11:48:34 GMT
You're missing a Conservative in Scotland.
In general, I don't think this is helpful. We're not a two party state. People didn't vote Green/Lib Dem as a sub-set of Labour or UKIP as a sub-set of Tory. They voted on their candidates, and on the various parties that exist.
That said, thanks for an interesting map.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 11, 2015 11:56:24 GMT
We're not a two party state. But we should be. |
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Post by brothersideways on May 11, 2015 11:58:50 GMT
We're not a two party state. But we should be. Why? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 11, 2015 12:32:27 GMT
You're missing a Conservative in Scotland. I'm not missing anything in Scotland. This isn't a map of 'Conservative' or 'Labour' seats. It is a map showing which seats combined 'progressive' parties won a majority/plurality and which they did not. Checking back on the OP it's apparent to me that I explained perfectly clearly how the figures were calculated so I won't do so again. In general, it isn't designed to be 'helpful', least of all to those who want to maintain a fiction of a progressive majority. I never claimed we were I never claimed they did. I'm a UKIP voter and understand perfectly well that UKIP supporters do not see themselves as a sub-set of Tories. Regardless, UKIP voters voted for a Right wing programme Well I think most people didn't vote on their candidates and that is particularly evident this time by the performance of incumbent Lib Dem MPs and some Labour MPs in Scotland. People voted for the parties that exist - well yes - way to state the bleeding obvious. And those parties sit on fairly clearly defined parts of the left-right political spectrum No bother |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,885 
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on May 11, 2015 12:41:20 GMT
But...We are a 2-Party State really and always have been since the Civil War. Those two parties are foolish enough to move their centre of gravity and thus lose or gain power. The public tend to be closer to their own centre and inhabit the party that suits the moment. 2015 is a good example of seeing the Red Parties moving left leaving many people effectively in the Blue Party, which naturally consequentially won!
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on May 11, 2015 12:52:41 GMT
We're not a two party state. But we should be. No we shouldn't. |
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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 11, 2015 13:21:47 GMT
The electorate, in England and Wales at least, seem to largely disagree. |
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Post by brothersideways on May 11, 2015 13:30:52 GMT
You're missing a Conservative in Scotland. I'm not missing anything in Scotland. This isn't a map of 'Conservative' or 'Labour' seats. It is a map showing which seats combined 'progressive' parties won a majority/plurality and which they did not. Checking back on the OP it's apparent to me that I explained perfectly clearly how the figures were calculated so I won't do so again. Terribly sorry, I misread your OP. Yes, then I see where your coming from. It would be interesting to compare this to years when Labour won. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 11, 2015 13:37:16 GMT
Well here's a couple I made earlier (it appears that the 'obvious reasons' for excluding Northern Ireland weren't so obvious to me at the time) 2005  1983  |
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Post by mrhell on May 11, 2015 14:10:43 GMT
We're not a two party state. But we should be. The liberals and the conservatives of all types. |
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carlton43
Reform Party
Posts: 50,885
Member is Online
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Post by carlton43 on May 11, 2015 14:15:40 GMT
Wow! That is telling. Even the uber Thatcher year 1983 is eclipsed by this year. It shows both how lucky Thatcher was to have the SDP and how matters have changed.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 11, 2015 14:25:41 GMT
Which confirms what I have long said. UKIP doesn't split the right wing vote. It expands it.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,025
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Post by Sibboleth on May 11, 2015 14:30:30 GMT
People don't vote in blocs in this country. Just as much of the old LibDem vote was cast as a 'fyck you' so is much of the UKIP vote. In much of the country it's even the same people doing it.
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Post by Merseymike on May 11, 2015 14:55:36 GMT
I definitely think a significant portion of the Ukip vote was the 'sod you' vote.
It's surprising to realise just how much of the LD vote may have actually been about that too.
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