Prediction: 2015 General Election Scotland

[Ghyl Tarvoke]

1. 72.5%
2. SNP 47.9% Labour 29.3% Conservatives 12.3% Lib Dems 6.5% Others 4.0%
3. SNP 52 Labour 5 Lib Dems 2 Conservatives 0
4. Glasgow North East (to SNP)
5. Na h-Eileann an Iar (to SNP)
6. Dundee East (SNP)
7. Edinburgh South West (Lab)
8. Highest -
Dundee East (SNP)
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (Lab)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweedale (Con)
Orkney and Shetland (Lib Dem)
Edinburgh North and Leith (Green)
Dumfries and Galloway (UKIP)
Lowest -
Orkney and Shetland (SNP)
Orkney and Shetland (Lab)
Glasgow East (Con)
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (Lib Dem)
Paisley and Renfrewshire North (Green)
Glasgow Central (UKIP)

9.
Highest - East Renfrewshire
Lowest - Glasgow North East

10. SNP +46 -0 Labour +0 -35 Conservatives +0 -1 Lib Dems +0 -9

11 and 12. No clue.

[iain]

May 2, 2015 11:16:00 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

So I've just decided to work on what I think a bit (not complete/a bit of a guess really);

1.

2. SNP 40.1%, Labour 28.7%, Liberal Democrats 7.0%, Conservatives 17.5%, UKIP 4.3% and Greens

3. SNP 35 Labour 20 Conservatives 3 Liberal Democrats 1

4. Dundee West (SNP)

5. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (SNP) 

6. Dundee East (SNP)

7. 

8.
Highest -
SNP: Dundee East
LAB: Glasgow North East
CON: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
LIB DEM: Orkney and Shetland
GREEN: Glasgow Central
UKIP: Dumfries & Galloway
Lowest -
SNP: Orkney & Shetland
LAB:  Orkney & Shetland
CON: Glasgow North East
LIB DEM: Glasgow North East
GREEN: Orkney & Shetland
UKIP: Dundee East

9.
Highest - Stirling
Lowest - Glasgow North East

10. SNP +30 -0 Conservative +2 -0 Labour +0 -20 Lib Dems +0 -8

11.

12

The Greens do not have a candidate in Orkney & Shetland

[Harry Hayfield]

1. What % of the electorate will turnout to vote? 70%
2. What % of the vote will each of the major political parties in Scotland receive, including UKIP & the Greens (SNP, Labour, Lib Dem, Conservative, UKIP, Greens)? SNP 48%, Lab 36%, Con 9%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 1%, Green 1%
3. How many seats will each political party receive? Con 293, Lab 269, SNP 41, Lib Dem 23, DUP 9, SF 5, Plaid 3, SDLP 3, Green 1, Ind 1, NHA 1, Speaker 1
4. Which seat will have the largest swing? Argyll and Bute
5. Which seat will have the smallest swing? Reading East
6. Which seat will be won by the largest margin (ie. will be the safest?) Liverpool, Walton
7. Which seat will be won by the smallest margin (ie. most marginal?) Hastings and Rye
8. Which seats will have the highest & lowest % party support for each party?
Conservatives: Highest: Richmond (Yorkshire), Lowest: Belfast East
Labour: Highest: Liverpool, Walton, Lowest: Westmorland and Lonsdale
Liberal Democrats: Highest: Westmorland and Lonsdale, Lowest: Glasgow East
Plaid Cymru: Highest: Dwyfor, Meirionnydd, Lowest: Newport East
Scottish National Party: Highest: Western Isles, Lowest: Renfrewshire East
Green Party: Highest: Brighton, Pavillion, Lowest: Glasgow East
United Kingdom Independence Party: Highest: Clacton, Lowest: Coatbridge
9. Which seats will have the highest & lowest turnouts? Highest: Renfrewshire East, Lowest: Manchester Central
10. How many gains and losses (seats) will each political party make? Con -13 net, Lab +11 net, SNP +35 net, Lib Dem -34 net, DUP +1 net, SF unchanged net, Plaid unchanged net, SDLP unchanged net, Green unchanged net, Green unchanged net, Ind unchanged net, NHA +1 net, Speaker unchanged net
11. Time of first Scottish declaration (nearest 15mins) and for which seat. Western Isles (0130 BST)
12. Time of final Scottish declaration (nearest 15mins) and for which seat Ross, Skye and Lochaber (0700 BST)

[iain]

May 2, 2015 16:53:04 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

1. What % of the electorate will turnout to vote? 70%
2. What % of the vote will each of the major political parties in Scotland receive, including UKIP & the Greens (SNP, Labour, Lib Dem, Conservative, UKIP, Greens)? SNP 48%, Lab 36%, Con 9%, Lib Dem 5%, UKIP 1%, Green 1%
3. How many seats will each political party receive? Con 293, Lab 269, SNP 41, Lib Dem 23, DUP 9, SF 5, Plaid 3, SDLP 3, Green 1, Ind 1, NHA 1, Speaker 1
4. Which seat will have the largest swing? Argyll and Bute
5. Which seat will have the smallest swing? Reading East
6. Which seat will be won by the largest margin (ie. will be the safest?) Liverpool, Walton
7. Which seat will be won by the smallest margin (ie. most marginal?) Hastings and Rye
8. Which seats will have the highest & lowest % party support for each party?
Conservatives: Highest: Richmond (Yorkshire), Lowest: Belfast East
Labour: Highest: Liverpool, Walton, Lowest: Westmorland and Lonsdale
Liberal Democrats: Highest: Westmorland and Lonsdale, Lowest: Glasgow East
Plaid Cymru: Highest: Dwyfor, Meirionnydd, Lowest: Newport East
Scottish National Party: Highest: Western Isles, Lowest: Renfrewshire East
Green Party: Highest: Brighton, Pavillion, Lowest: Glasgow East
United Kingdom Independence Party: Highest: Clacton, Lowest: Coatbridge
9. Which seats will have the highest & lowest turnouts? Highest: Renfrewshire East, Lowest: Manchester Central
10. How many gains and losses (seats) will each political party make? Con -13 net, Lab +11 net, SNP +35 net, Lib Dem -34 net, DUP +1 net, SF unchanged net, Plaid unchanged net, SDLP unchanged net, Green unchanged net, Green unchanged net, Ind unchanged net, NHA +1 net, Speaker unchanged net
11. Time of first Scottish declaration (nearest 15mins) and for which seat. Western Isles (0130 BST)
12. Time of final Scottish declaration (nearest 15mins) and for which seat Ross, Skye and Lochaber (0700 BST)

think you may have missed the 'in Scotland' part ...

[greenchristian]

May 2, 2015 14:00:38 GMT iain said:

May 2, 2015 11:16:00 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

So I've just decided to work on what I think a bit (not complete/a bit of a guess really);

1.

2. SNP 40.1%, Labour 28.7%, Liberal Democrats 7.0%, Conservatives 17.5%, UKIP 4.3% and Greens

3. SNP 35 Labour 20 Conservatives 3 Liberal Democrats 1

4. Dundee West (SNP)

5. Na h-Eileanan an Iar (SNP) 

6. Dundee East (SNP)

7. 

8.
Highest -
SNP: Dundee East
LAB: Glasgow North East
CON: Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk
LIB DEM: Orkney and Shetland
GREEN: Glasgow Central
UKIP: Dumfries & Galloway
Lowest -
SNP: Orkney & Shetland
LAB:  Orkney & Shetland
CON: Glasgow North East
LIB DEM: Glasgow North East
GREEN: Orkney & Shetland
UKIP: Dundee East

9.
Highest - Stirling
Lowest - Glasgow North East

10. SNP +30 -0 Conservative +2 -0 Labour +0 -20 Lib Dems +0 -8

11.

12

The Greens do not have a candidate in Orkney & Shetland

Surely that makes it a dead cert for our lowest share of the vote.

[iain]

Not reflected in the polls in the constituency section, which are currently rather optimistic for Labour.

[greenchristian]

May 5, 2015 15:23:59 GMT iain said:

Not reflected in the polls in the constituency section, which are currently rather optimistic for Labour.

Well, some of us have voted in this one but not the constituency polls. I've confined myself to voting in seats that I think I know something about, which includes pretty much none of Scotland.