Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 19, 2019 8:44:36 GMT
Furthermore, I believe the Greens will win 2 of the 24 "other" seats noted in the poll (18 are Northern Irish seats and the remaining 4 will be for Plaid Cymru). The 24 other seats are no change - so 18 NI, 4 PC, 1 Grn and 1 Speaker. Any chances of the Greens gaining a seat would be highly unlikely to show up on a UNS model, which is what this is.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 19, 2019 9:22:50 GMT
Furthermore, I believe the Greens will win 2 of the 24 "other" seats noted in the poll (18 are Northern Irish seats and the remaining 4 will be for Plaid Cymru). The 24 other seats are no change - so 18 NI, 4 PC, 1 Grn and 1 Speaker. Any chances of the Greens gaining a seat would be highly unlikely to show up on a UNS model, which is what this is. greenhert doesn't use a UNS model. He uses a WIWTHWH model
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The Bishop
Labour
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BMG
Aug 19, 2019 9:31:04 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2019 9:31:04 GMT
Release the CUK figure but not the Greens? Ok... Nope, Stats for Lefties being economical with the actualité again. Full tables aren't out yet and from the headlines neither the greens or CUK are mentioned just a 12% others. Well it was the Independent report on the poll that mentioned Change UK were at 0% (which in this case actually means *zero* poll respondents, apparently) So on this occasion your ire appears misplaced
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BMG
Aug 19, 2019 9:41:58 GMT
Post by iainbhx on Aug 19, 2019 9:41:58 GMT
Nope, Stats for Lefties being economical with the actualité again. Full tables aren't out yet and from the headlines neither the greens or CUK are mentioned just a 12% others. Well it was the Independent report on the poll that mentioned Change UK were at 0% (which in this case actually means *zero* poll respondents, apparently) So on this occasion your ire appears misplaced Fair enough, I apologise, but the account in question has some serious and fairly frequent issues with its reportage.
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Post by archaeologist on Aug 19, 2019 10:36:48 GMT
I need to vent! I'm getting fed up with poor reporting and presentation of polls. In the Independent - Where is the data, what are the actual figures? If I had a student present me with data in this way I'd fail them. The BMG website is hopeless with no link to the poll at all, and this was a poll 10 days ago.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 19, 2019 10:50:32 GMT
BMG always seem to publish their polls a while after they were taken tbh. This was actually normal in polling's "good old days" but not for a while now.
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BMG
Aug 19, 2019 11:35:04 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 19, 2019 11:35:04 GMT
Furthermore, I believe the Greens will win 2 of the 24 "other" seats noted in the poll (18 are Northern Irish seats and the remaining 4 will be for Plaid Cymru). The 24 other seats are no change - so 18 NI, 4 PC, 1 Grn and 1 Speaker. Any chances of the Greens gaining a seat would be highly unlikely to show up on a UNS model, which is what this is. I would have thought the Lib Dems would be predicted to take bsck Ceredigion on the basis of this poll (and the last Welsh poll by YouGov
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Tony Otim
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Aug 19, 2019 11:46:04 GMT
Post by Tony Otim on Aug 19, 2019 11:46:04 GMT
The 24 other seats are no change - so 18 NI, 4 PC, 1 Grn and 1 Speaker. Any chances of the Greens gaining a seat would be highly unlikely to show up on a UNS model, which is what this is. I would have thought the Lib Dems would be predicted to take bsck Ceredigion on the basis of this poll (and the last Welsh poll by YouGov Possibly - Plaid being net no change could be 1 loss and 1 gain? Without more details difficult to say...
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BMG
Aug 20, 2019 20:20:01 GMT
Post by greenhert on Aug 20, 2019 20:20:01 GMT
The 24 other seats are no change - so 18 NI, 4 PC, 1 Grn and 1 Speaker. Any chances of the Greens gaining a seat would be highly unlikely to show up on a UNS model, which is what this is. greenhert doesn't use a UNS model. He uses a WIWTHWH model There is no such thing as a WIWTHWH model.
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BMG
Sept 15, 2019 8:51:37 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Sept 15, 2019 8:51:37 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
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BMG
Sept 15, 2019 9:41:45 GMT
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Post by cogload on Sept 15, 2019 9:41:45 GMT
That is about where we are.
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The Bishop
Labour
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Sept 16, 2019 9:13:00 GMT
Post by The Bishop on Sept 16, 2019 9:13:00 GMT
This poll was again over a week old, which maybe matters more right now than is usual.
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jamie
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BMG
Sept 16, 2019 11:04:46 GMT
Post by jamie on Sept 16, 2019 11:04:46 GMT
BMG always seems to release its poll much longer after they were conducted compared to other pollsters.
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iain
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 15:14:15 GMT
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Post by iain on Oct 7, 2019 15:14:15 GMT
Obviously all MOE but I believe that’s the highest ever Lib Dem score with BMG.
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Chris from Brum
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Oct 7, 2019 15:15:07 GMT
Post by Chris from Brum on Oct 7, 2019 15:15:07 GMT
No 5% LD drop here, then.
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 15:39:22 GMT
Post by tonygreaves on Oct 7, 2019 15:39:22 GMT
Labour mid-twenties is consistent and more evidence that they are in serious trouble.
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johng
Labour
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 15:50:19 GMT
Post by johng on Oct 7, 2019 15:50:19 GMT
The polls are all over the place.
It's very hard to tell what's actually going on when one poll shows a huge Tory lead but others show it to be pretty narrow.
Overall, it's clear there is a Tory lead and the Lib Dems are challenging or close to challenging Labour for second. Otherwise!?!?!
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 19:05:27 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 7, 2019 19:05:27 GMT
The polls are all over the place. It's very hard to tell what's actually going on when one poll shows a huge Tory lead but others show it to be pretty narrow. Overall, it's clear there is a Tory lead and the Lib Dems are challenging or close to challenging Labour for second. Otherwise!?!?! Well, it is clear that the election of Johnson as Tory leader took about 5% of BXP and they seem to be gradually dropping since.
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 19:30:06 GMT
Post by casualobserver on Oct 7, 2019 19:30:06 GMT
The polls are all over the place. It's very hard to tell what's actually going on when one poll shows a huge Tory lead but others show it to be pretty narrow. The polls are not all over the place! They are showing remarkably little movement given the momentous political events we've been witnessing recently. There's methodological inconsistency between the pollsters, primarily (in my view) in correctly weighting for 2017 Labour voters and, secondarily, in the way in which the pollsters are conducting their surveys. In such circumstances, comparing one poll directly with another pollster's poll is not very meaningful. More useful is to see how each specific pollster's numbers are moving compared to that particular pollster's previous numbers. Most useful is to compare each pollster's movement in their own numbers against the movement in other pollsters' own numbers. That's where the remarkable stability of the last couple of months can best be seen.
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BMG
Oct 7, 2019 19:35:52 GMT
Post by casualobserver on Oct 7, 2019 19:35:52 GMT
Overall, it's clear there is a Tory lead and the Lib Dems are challenging or close to challenging Labour for second. Otherwise!?!?! As long as the Conservatives lead Labour at least moderately, even a 5% deficit for Labour as against the LDs would still leave the LibDems far short of matching Labour's number of seats in the HoC.
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