A prediction competition for the General Election?

[andrewteale]

My prediction has gone up on Kris' blog.

Mark "The Beast" Labbett is running his "Electionmania" prediction competition again: send me a PM and I'll pass the entry spreadsheet on.

[thirdchill]

Con: 291
Lab: 263
SNP: 45
LD: 26
DUP: 9
SF: 5
SDLP:3
PC: 3
UKIP: 2
Green: 1
Ind: 1
Speaker 1

[mondialito]

In the manner of Tony Otim, I too shall stick my head above the parapet. Some of the results here are against the grain, but I am legislating for the unexpected.

Top Line Figures:

Lab 277 (+19)
Con 272 (-33)
SNP 39 (+33)
LD 31 (-26)
DUP 8 (nc)
SF 5 (nc)
UKIP 5 (+5)
PC 4 (+1)
SDLP 3 (nc)
Green 2 (+1)
Alliance 1 (nc)
Respect 1 (+1)
Independent 1 (nc)
Speaker 1

The seats named below change hands

LONDON

Lab 46 (+8) Con 23 (-5) LD 4 (-3)

Lab Gains: Brent Central, Brentford and Isleworth, Croydon Central, Ealing Central and Acton, Enfield North, Harrow East, Hendon, Hornsey and Wood Green

Con Gain: Sutton and Cheam

SOUTH EAST

Con 69 (-6), Lab 7 (+3), LD 5 (+1), UKIP 2 (+2), Green 1 (nc)

Lab Gains: Brighton Kemptown, Hastings and Rye, Hove

UKIP Gain: South Thanet; UKIP Win: Rochester and Strood

Lib Dem Gain: Oxford West and Abingdon

SOUTH WEST

Con 40 (+4), LD 9 (-6), Lab 6 (+2)

Con Gains: Chippenham, Mid Dorset and North Poole, Somerton and Frome, St. Austell and Newquay, Taunton Deane, Wells

Lab Gains: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Stroud

EASTERN

Con 46 (-6), Lab 6 (+4), LD 3 (-1), UKIP 2 (+2), Green 1 (+1)

Lab Gains: Bedford, Ipswich, Stevenage, Waveney

UKIP Gain: Thurrock; UKIP Win: Clacton

Green Gain: Norwich South

WEST MIDLANDS

Lab 30 (+6), Con 28 (-5), LD 1 (-1)

Lab Gains: Cannock Chase, Dudley South, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Wolverhampton South West

Con Gain: Solihull

EAST MIDLANDS

Con 23 (-8), Lab 22 (+7), UKIP 1 (+1)

Lab Gains: Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Erewash, Lincoln, Northampton North, Sherwood; Lab Win: Corby

UKIP Gain: Boston and Skegness

NORTH WEST

Lab 57 (+10), Con 14 (-8), LD 4 (-2)

Lab Gains: Burnley, Bury North, Carlisle, City of Chester, Lancaster and Fleetwood, Manchester Withington, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Warrington South, Weaver Vale, Wirral West

NORTH EAST

Lab 27 (+2), Con 2 (nc), LD 0 (-2)

Lab Gains: Redcar, Stockton South

Con Gain: Berwick-upon-Tweed

YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER

Lab 33 (+1), Con 18 (-1), LD 2 (-1), Respect 1 (+1)

Lab Gains: Bradford East, Dewsbury

Respect Win: Bradford West

WALES

Lab 28 (+2), Con 7 (-1), PC 4 (+1), LD 1 (-2)

Lab Gains: Cardiff Central, Cardiff North

Plaid Cymru Gain: Ceredigion

SCOTLAND

SNP 39 (+33), Lab 15 (-26), Con 3 (+2), LD 2 (-9)

SNP Gains: Aberdeen North, Airdrie and Shotts, Argyll and Bute, Ayr, Caithness, Central Ayrshire, Cumbernauld, Dundee West, East Kilbride, East Lothian, Edinburgh East, Edinburgh North and Leith, Edinburgh West, Falkirk, Glasgow Central, Glasgow East, Glasgow North, Glasgow South, Glenrothes, Gordon, Inverclyde, Inverness, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Livingston, Midlothian, North Ayrshire and Arran, North East Fife, Ochil and South Perthshire, Paisley and Renfrewshire North, Stirling, West Dunbartonshire

Con Gains: Berwickshire, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine

Lab Gain: East Dunbartonshire

NORTHERN IRELAND

DUP 8 (nc), Sinn Fein 5 (nc), SDLP 3 (nc), Alliance 1 (nc), Independent 1 (nc)

As you were.

[Deleted]

Con 274
Lab 274
SNP 52
LD 28
DUP 9
SF 5
PC 3
SDLP 3
UKIP 1
Grn 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1

[carlton43]

I have opted for a nightmare bloodbath scenario in which there are gains and losses for all parties and an injection of NI undifferentiated at18.

NI 18
Speaker 1
Con 279
Lab 259
LD 20
SNP 51
UKIP 20
PC 2
Green 0

And that included 1 gain for LD, 31 for Con, 52 for Lab, 45 for SNP and 18 for UKIP plus a bloodbath of losses.

[Pete Whitehead]

Con   281
Lab   265
SNP    49
LD      26
UKIP     5
PC        3
Oth      3 (1 Speaker, 1 Green, 1 Respect)
NI      18 (9 DUP, 5 SF/IRA, 3 SDLP, 1 Ind)

[iain]

273 - Conservative (including speaker)
271 - Labour
49 - SNP
31 - Lib Dem
9 - DUP
5 - Sinn Fein
3 - UKIP
3 - Plaid Cymru
3 - SDLP
1 - Green
1 - Respect
1 - Independent

South West:
6 Conservative gains from Lib Dem (St Austell, Mid Dorset, Taunton, Somerton, Wells, Chippenham)
2 Labour gains from Conservative (Plymouth S&D, Stroud)
1 Labour gain from Lib Dem (Bristol West)

South East
4 Labour gains from Conservative (Hove, Brighton Kemptown, Hastings, Milton Keynes SW)
1 Conservative gain from Lib Dem (Portsmouth South)
1 UKIP gain from Conservative (South Thanet) - but Tories regain R&S

London
4 Labour gains from Conservative (Enfield North, Hendon, Brentford, Ealing C&A)
2 Labour gains from Lib Dem (Hornsey, Brent Central)

East
5 Labour gains from Conservative (Norwich South, Waveney, Ipswich, Bedford, Stevenage)
2 UKIP gains from Conservative (Clacton, Thurrock)
1 Labour gain from Lib Dem (Norwich South)
1 Lib Dem gain from Conservative (Watford)

West Midlands
4 Labour gains from Conservative (North Warks, Nuneaton, Cannock, Wolverhampton SW)
1 Conservative gain from Lib Dem (Solihull)

East Midlands
7 Labour gains from Conservative (Northampton North, Corby, Erewash, Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Sherwood, Lincoln)

Yorkshire & the Humber
2 Labour gains from Conservative (Dewsbury, Keighley)
1 Labour gain from Lib Dem (Bradford East)
1 Respect gain from Labour (Bradford West)

North West
8 Labour gains from Conservative (Carlisle, Morecambe, Lancaster, Bury North, Wirral West, Warrington South, Chester, Weaver Vale)
2 Labour gains from Lib Dem (Manchester Withington, Burnley)

North East
1 Labour gain from Conservative (Stockton South)
1 Labour gain from Lib Dem (Redcar)
1 Conservative gain from Lib Dem (Berwick)

Wales
1 Labour gain from Conservative (Cardiff North)
1 Labour gain from Lib Dem (Cardiff Central)

Scotland
Labour hold 8 (Dunfermline, Coatbridge, Rutherglen, Glasgow NE, East Renfrewshire, Dumfries, East Lothian, Edinburgh South)
Lib Dem hold 2 (Orkney, BRS)

Northern Ireland
1 DUP gain from Alliance (Belfast East)

[greenchristian]

May 6, 2015 0:03:15 GMT carlton43 said:

I have opted for a nightmare bloodbath scenario in which there are gains and losses for all parties and an injection of NI undifferentiated at18.

NI 18
Speaker 1
Con 279
Lab 259
LD 20
SNP 51
UKIP 20
PC 2
Green 0

And that included 1 gain for LD, 31 for Con, 52 for Lab, 45 for SNP and 18 for UKIP plus a bloodbath of losses.

I can't help but notice that your prediction does not actually include gains for all parties.

[carlton43]

May 6, 2015 15:03:10 GMT greenchristian said:

May 6, 2015 0:03:15 GMT carlton43 said:

I have opted for a nightmare bloodbath scenario in which there are gains and losses for all parties and an injection of NI undifferentiated at18.

NI 18
Speaker 1
Con 279
Lab 259
LD 20
SNP 51
UKIP 20
PC 2
Green 0

And that included 1 gain for LD, 31 for Con, 52 for Lab, 45 for SNP and 18 for UKIP plus a bloodbath of losses.

I can't help but notice that your prediction does not actually include gains for all parties.

Sorry GC, it was carelessly phrased and indeed I only have 5-parties with gains. I prepared this on a basis of going through constituency by constituency and listing the possible gains for each. There were no overlaps, I always opted for just one party. Then I netted out my five lists. Of course there will tend to be a final trend toward one of the majors however variable the trends are in all the regions. I may have overstated the SNP gains and I am sure I overstated the UKIP gains....but?? I could not fathom NI and found little to alter in Wales! Whilst there may well be some Conservative gains from Labour as well as Labour gains from Conservative on the same day, I think both are capable of infinite adjustment and one of them will be more wrong than the other....but which one that is the question? I opt slightly for the 'shy Tory' and incumbent late swing theory. So! Overall, that leave a number of adjustments that all pertain towards a better Conservative result than shown. And I shall put up my adjusted figures later. 

[gwynthegriff]

Conservatives 279
Labour 275
SNP 39
Lib Dem 32
PC 4
UKIP 1
Speaker 1

NI - 18 (not going to break them down, but I fear Alliance will be 0)

[dizz]

My predictions:

Seat totals:
Lab 275
Con 272
SNP 45
LD 33
DUP 9
SF 5
UKIP 2
PC 3
SDLP 3
Grn 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1

By region, listing seats changing hands (except for Scotland for obvious reasons), everything else should be assumed to have same winner as 2010:
(Also changes are compared to 2010 rather than by-elections)

EAST MIDLANDS:
Lab gains: Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Corby, Lincoln, Sherwood

EASTERN:
Lab gains: Bedford, Ipswich, Norwich N, Norwich S, Waveney
UKIP gains: Clacton

GREATER LONDON:
Lab gains: Brent Central, Brentford & Isleworth, Ealing Central & acton; Enfield North, Harrow East, Hendon, Hornsey & Wood Green,

NORTH EAST:
Lab Gains: Redcar, Stockton South

NORTH WEST:
Lab gains: Burnley, Bury North, Carlisle, City of Chester, Crewe & Nantwich, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Manchester Withington, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Rossendale & Darwen, Warrington South, Weaver Vale, Wirral West

NORTHERN IRELAND:
DUP gain: Belfast East

SOUTH EAST:
Lab gains: Brighton Kemptown, Hasting & Rye, Hove,
Con gains: Portsmouth South
UKIP gains: Thanet South

SOUTH WEST:
Lab gains: Plymouth Sutton & Devenport, Stroud, Bristol West
Con gains: Chippenham, Mid Dorset & north Poole, Somerton & Frome, Taunton Deane, Wells

WALES:
Lab gains: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central

WEST MIDLANDS:
Lab gains: Cannock Chase, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, North Warwicksire, Wolverhampton SW,
Con gain: Solihull

YORKSHIRE & HUMBER:
Lab gains: Dewsbury, Keighley, Pudsey, Bradford West

SCOTLAND:
LD to hold Orkney & Shetland and Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk,
Con to hold: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale
Lab to hold: Aberdeen South, Dumfries & Galloway, East Lothian, Edinburgh South, Glasgow East, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, East Renfrewshire, Paisley & Renfrewshire South, Rutherglen & Hamilton West and West Dunbartonshire
Everything else to go SNP.

Labour Minority Government.

[Philip Davies]

Conservative Party 264
Labour Party 288
Liberal Democrat 30
Scottish National Party 42
Democratic Unionist Party 9
Plaid Cymru 3
Social Democratic & Labour Party 3
Sinn Fein 5
Independent 1
Green Party 1
Speaker 1
Alliance Party 0
Respect Party 0
United Kingdom Independence Party 3
Ulster Unionist Party 0

[manchesterman]

I think that, if the Exit poll is correct, pretty much all of us are way off target!

[Deleted]

May 5, 2015 10:57:05 GMT justlooking said:

Con 274
Lab 274
SNP 52
LD 28
DUP 9
SF 5
PC 3
SDLP 3
UKIP 1
Grn 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1

All in all

I got UKIP,GREEN,PC,INDY,SPEAKER SPOT ON

I got a 8 in the LD figure and only 4 out for the SNP

apart from that

erm well

That why I don't gamble any more...

[Deleted]

Apr 14, 2015 23:25:34 GMT johnloony said:

I predict: Conservative 647, Speaker 1, DUP 1, UUP 1

I guess technically you are the winner by the only one suggesting a tory majority....

[Tony Otim]

May 9, 2015 9:25:48 GMT justlooking said:

Apr 14, 2015 23:25:34 GMT johnloony said:

I predict: Conservative 647, Speaker 1, DUP 1, UUP 1

I guess technically you are the winner by the only one suggesting a tory majority....

He was also the only one suggesting a UUP gain, so double marks for John.

[Robert Waller]

And who's ahead on sum of errors (least)?
Thirdchill just ahead of Jamie Redhead?

[manchesterman]

Finally got around to doing this. Sorry for the delay.

Here is the final 'league table' -

@jamieredhead 102
thirdchill 105
Pete Whitehead 116
carlton43 120
justlooking 125
manchesterman 130
iain 134
@tony Otim 136
dizz 142
gwynthegriff 142
mondialito 154
@philip Davies 164
johnloony 634

[Andrew_S]

[The Bishop]

He still seems to be sticking with psephology for the moment, though. Which is nice because he is very good at it (last month notwithstanding)