A prediction competition for the General Election?

[manchesterman]

Not wishing to step on anyone's toes but are there any plans (in this conference or elsewhere) for a thread where members can post their GE predictions?

There are after all barely 4 weeks to go now...

I've been working on mine over the Easter break and am ready to be the first to stick my head above the parapet if everyone else is too bashful to post theirs! 

If this belongs elsewhere please let me know 

[Andrew_S]

Sounds like a good idea to me. I don't know how it would be organised though.

[bolbridge]

I suggest a guess for all 650 constituencies. 3rd place for your chosen winner counts as 2 wrong answers.

[Andrew_S]

Maybe there should be a special prize for anyone who correctly predicts every seat in Scotland.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

I remember discussions on several occasions at previous elections. You have to make sure the thing to be predicted is complex enough and variable enough to be a genuine contest. I won an office sweepstake on the 1997 election result just by being prepared to believe the polls might actually this time be right, and going for a three figure Labour majority - everyone else couldn't bring themselves to believe it would be quite that good/bad (delete as applicable). Even I had a Labour majority considerably under what it actually turned out to be.

Is it to predict votes, or seats?

Also, no-one's going to want to reveal their picks in public, so they'll have to be submitted by message and kept until the polls close.

[manchesterman]

I wasnt thinking of anything as complex as giving a prediction for each individual constituency (although if anyone wants to take on that burden, by all means be my guest!)

I was thinking more along the lines similar to football league table predictions, whereby you are given a point for each place differential (or seats differential) you are out for each team (or party) and the LOWEST score wins..

e.g. I predict a number of seats for each party, then the difference between that number and the actual election results (in brackets for this example) gives my score..
so if I say

Con 280 (actual 285) = 5pts
Lab 270 (actual 276) = 6pts
Lib Dems 30 (actual 28) = 2pts etc etc.


This would avoid the need for 650 separate predictions from everyone, but I accept that would be more of a test, but quite a job to manage!

[Harry Hayfield]

Shame, I wouldn't mind having a stab at all 650 seats (with a prize if you get Northern Ireland correct)

[bolbridge]

632 seats perhaps with a separate competition for Northern Ireland.

[dizz]

Apr 10, 2015 16:46:13 GMT bolbridge said:

632 seats perhaps with a separate competition for Northern Ireland.

No reason why not all 650.

We wouldn't have to spell them out e.g. - Labour to hold all Eng & Welsh seats will cover off almost 220.

[manchesterman]

So what are we doing then?

Btw I just remembered (as some will know from a saga in another thread) that I wont actually be here for the GE itself or for the 2 weeks thereafter!

So I wont be able to do the tallying on this occasion. If anyone is willing to take up the cudgels for whichever option we choose to go with, that would be great, but we need to get moving pretty soon though...

[Harry Hayfield]

Apr 10, 2015 21:10:32 GMT manchesterman said:

So what are we doing then?

Btw I just remembered (as some will know from a saga in another thread) that I wont actually be here for the GE itself or for the 2 weeks thereafter!

So I wont be able to do the tallying on this occasion. If anyone is willing to take up the cudgels for whichever option we choose to go with, that would be great, but we need to get moving pretty soon though...

I can do the tallying no problem (and it would give me a reason to try and tally it within a week so I can post an article about whether the Conservatives did shoot themselves in the foot over House of Lords reform)

[carlton43]

Apr 12, 2015 8:11:20 GMT Harry Hayfield said:

Apr 10, 2015 21:10:32 GMT manchesterman said:

So what are we doing then?

Btw I just remembered (as some will know from a saga in another thread) that I wont actually be here for the GE itself or for the 2 weeks thereafter!

So I wont be able to do the tallying on this occasion. If anyone is willing to take up the cudgels for whichever option we choose to go with, that would be great, but we need to get moving pretty soon though...

I can do the tallying no problem (and it would give me a reason to try and tally it within a week so I can post an article about whether the Conservatives did shoot themselves in the foot over House of Lords reform)

IF ?? Their feet are riddled with holes.

[johnloony]

I predict: Conservative 647, Speaker 1, DUP 1, UUP 1

[manchesterman]

Some shocks Tory gains in Norn Iron there John!!

[Pete Whitehead]

Not as shocking as the UUP gain

[baloo]

I agree with Dizz that it should be all 650. Could we also have a competition for the most outlandish prediction that turns out to be correct? Perhaps to be judged by johnloony.

[Tony Otim]

As nobody has volunteered to moderate this, i'm going to risk getting a tremendous amount of egg on my face by putting my predictions up here. That way if nobody else bothers I'll declare myself the winner unilaterally, even if my predictions are way out.

Seat totals:
Lab 275
Con 269
SNP 51
LD 28
DUP 9
SF 5
UKIP 4
PC 3
SDLP 3
Grn 1
Ind 1
Speaker 1

By region, listing seats changing hands (except for Scotland for obvious reasons), everything else should be assumed to have same winner as 2010:
(Also changes are compared to 2010 rather than by-elections)

EAST MIDLANDS:
Lab gains: Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Corby, Erewash, High Peak, Lincoln, Northampton N, Sherwood

EASTERN:
Lab gains: Bedford, Ipswich, Norwich N, Norwich S, Stevenage, Waveney
UKIP gains: Clacton, Thurrock

GREATER LONDON:
Lab gains: Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Brent Central, Brentford & Isleworth, Croydon Central, Ealing Central & acton; Enfield North, Harrow East, Hendon, Hornsey & Wood Green,

NORTH EAST:
Con gain: Berwick upoin TWeed
Lab Gains: Redcar, Stockton South

NORTH WEST:
Lab gains: Burnley, Bury North, Carlisle, City of Chester, Crewe & Nantwich, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Manchester Withington, Morecambe & Lunesdale, Warrington South, Weaver Vale, Wirral West

NORTHERN IRELAND:
DUP gain: Belfast East

SOUTH EAST:
Lab gains: Brighton Kemptown, Hasting & Rye, Hove,
UKIP gains: Rochester & strood, Thanet South

SOUTH WEST:
Lab gains: Plymouth Sutton & Devenport, Stroud, Bristol West
Con gains: Chippenham, North Devon, Mid Dorset & north Poole, St Austell & Newquay, Somerton & Frome, Taunton Deane, Wells

WALES:
Lab gains: Cardiff North, Cardiff Central

WEST MIDLANDS:
Lab gains: Cannock Chase, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Nuneaton, North Warwicksire, Wolverhampton SW,
Con gain: Solihull

YORKSHIRE & HUMBER:
Lab gains: Dewsbury, Keighley, Bradford West

SCOTLAND:
LD to hold Orkney & Shetland
Con to gain Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk,
Lab to hold: Aberdeen South, Edinburgh South, Glasgow North East, Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath, East Renfrewshire, Rutherglen & Hamilton West.
Everything else to go SNP.

The predictions weren't specifically designed to get Lab+SNP=326, but that's the way its worked out.

I'm getting them in early as I'll be offline from Friday until next Thursday. Any major late events could make me look very silly

[dizz]

Time limit for predictions 10pm next Thursday?

[manchesterman]

I would have done it Tony but I won't be in the UK for 3 weeks from May 4th and I will be in a desolate part of Michigan with very limited internet access

I will put mine up now so you aren't alone

[manchesterman]

Manchesterman's prediction:

Con 283*
Lab 274
SNP 41
LD 26
UKIP 4
PC 3
Green 1
18 seats in N.I, same as 2010 (sorry I don't really follow Irish politics)

Con seats are 282 if you treat The Speaker as a separate party.