India

[ibfc]

Mar 10, 2022 4:15:01 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Few sites with elec.results:

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/live-updates-assembly-election-results-2022-uttar-pradesh-punjab-uttarakhand-manipur-goa/liveblog/90110697.cms

www.indiatoday.in/election-analysis-dashboard/uttar-pradesh/2022/

www.ndtv.com/

Unsurprisingly BJP has won UttarPradesh, did better than (i) expected in Uttarakhand & Goa and worse in Manipur.

Uttarakhand was always going to vote for Modi and Yogi. Not sure why the pollsters couldn’t pick that up. Goa saw a return to the 60s with the BJP becoming the old MGP of Dayanand Bandodkar and the Congress becoming a pseudo UGP of Jack Sequeira. The sweep in the Novas Conquistas was not picked up by pollsters who kept visiting Panjim/ Salcette and listened to Brahmins and Catholics bad mouthing the government.

[minionofmidas]

Mar 10, 2022 8:59:45 GMT ibfc said:

Mar 10, 2022 7:04:37 GMT minionofmidas said:

BJP very close to a majority in Goa.

20 seats done. Ravi Naik won Ponda by 20 votes.

yeah, they went from 19 leading 2 hours ago to 20 leading or won now. Not going to click through seats to see how many close races there are or how much is out in individual seats (can't really clearly see that on ECI anyways) unless I really, really care. And in this case, even at 19 seats, it was obvious there wasn't going to be a path to an anti-BJP government.

[Georg Ebner]

Mar 10, 2022 8:57:13 GMT minionofmidas said:

Re polarization in UP.
Currently INC is leading in one constituency and BSP in two - which is the same as this charming gentleman's personal vehicle.
All 398 other seats, BJP, SP or an ally of one of them is ahead.

As an ignorant foreigner i did also not expect - despite all obvious polarization - BSP to be able to sink so deeply.

[rcronald]

Mar 10, 2022 8:57:13 GMT minionofmidas said:

Re polarization in UP.
Currently INC is leading in one constituency and BSP in two - which is the same as this charming gentleman's personal vehicle.
All 398 other seats, BJP, SP or an ally of one of them is ahead.

How is this man still in politics….

[minionofmidas]

Mar 10, 2022 17:38:57 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 10, 2022 8:57:13 GMT minionofmidas said:

Re polarization in UP.
Currently INC is leading in one constituency and BSP in two - which is the same as this charming gentleman's personal vehicle.
All 398 other seats, BJP, SP or an ally of one of them is ahead.

How is this man still in politics….

It's either stay in politics or go to prison, I guess.

[rcronald]

Mar 10, 2022 17:40:48 GMT minionofmidas said:

Mar 10, 2022 17:38:57 GMT rcronald said:

How is this man still in politics….

It's either stay in politics or go to prison, I guess.

*how are people still voting for him

[minionofmidas]

Mar 10, 2022 17:45:26 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 10, 2022 17:40:48 GMT minionofmidas said:

It's either stay in politics or go to prison, I guess.

*how are people still voting for him

his margins in past years were huge - up to 80% of the vote. He only beat SP 51-35-8 BJP this year. So in a sense they're stopping to.
You have to wonder how hard BJP campaigned here. While in the past he was often a semiofficial SP candidate.
It's a very mofussil area. He's both the local crime don and the hereditary raja (zamindar. Taluqdar. Whatever.) These people, these feidal structures are hard to dislodge without a major campaign that needs to have both grassroots and state support. I guess it just never happened here even though the feudal rights were legally lost in the 50s.

[ibfc]

He was informally with the BJP from 93-02, with the SP from 02-17 and again with the BJP from 17 and is the third most iconic figure for Rajputs in UP today after the CM and Rajnath Singh. He controls the Rajput lobby which used to be across parties (mostly BJP and SP) but is now totally with the BJP. He doesn’t formally join any party because he considers it beneath him but he would’ve lost to the BJP last time without SP support and vice versa this time. His interview was the second most watched on a popular talk show in the run up to the polls ahead of everyone including Akhilesh Yadav and only behind the CM.

[Georg Ebner]

[Georg Ebner]

As it is presently turning more and more into a semi-hegemonic system (with BJP becoming the new INC - just, what AMLO tries in Mexico), an OverView of their strength in the regional elections is not without use (nota bene: it's only the proper parties, so without their allies):

[Georg Ebner]

The sums of all LegislativeAssemblies:



InComplete numbers taken from en.wikipedia, but they show at least, that the INC has received in the recent years not even 2/3 of BJP's votes.

[minionofmidas]

So how are things at Indian Obsolete Congress headquarters?

theprint.in/opinion/politically-correct/in-seven-sentences-cwc-statement-exposes-whats-wrong-with-sonia-rahuls-leadership/872505/

So much for that, then.
(My devotion to the Print as a news source on India is partly due to a pleasing tolerance for my adblocker.)

[The Bishop]

I fully expected Congress to have made at least something of a comeback by now, that they haven't is indeed very ominous for them.

[ibfc]

People interested in the Congress will find this interesting. The man being interviewed is Sunil Jakhar (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunil_Kumar_Jakhar). Don’t get misled by the blurb, the interview is in English.

[rcronald]

Hi, ibfc . I have a couple of questions about Indian politics for you:
1.How are things for Shiv Sena now?
2.what are the differences between AAP and the INC (except for corruption and elitism)?

[ibfc]

Mar 17, 2022 19:15:28 GMT rcronald said:

Hi, ibfc . I have a couple of questions about Indian politics for you:
1.How are things for Shiv Sena now?
2.what are the differences between AAP and the INC (except for corruption and elitism)?

1. It’s difficult to say because there have been no real elections in MH for a while. Municipal elections have been put off for a while due to COVID and then a farcas over reservations. Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik, Aurangabad are all mostly going to polls later this year. At a more macro level, they have definitely abandoned Hindutva and moved solidly into the opposition camp and I think it’s more of an ideological shift rather than an opportunistic one. They collaborate very closely with the Sharad Pawar/Supriya Sule wing of the NCP and have good relations with the Gandhis.

2. They are more competent and driven as they are primarily grassroots politicians/activists. Also more focused on direct delivery of benefits as opposed to the rights based discourse of the Congress. And the lack of feudalism makes it more akin to a communist party or the BJP than the Congress. Also they’ve tried to turn right on nationalistic/religious issues to some extent. They tried to leverage this in Uttarakhand by declaring a retired army man as their CM candidate (the state has a very high percentage of former soldiers) but the guy lost his deposit. I am definitely more sympathetic to AAP than INC FWIW.

[rcronald]

Mar 18, 2022 13:29:31 GMT ibfc said:

Mar 17, 2022 19:15:28 GMT rcronald said:

Hi, ibfc . I have a couple of questions about Indian politics for you:
1.How are things for Shiv Sena now?
2.what are the differences between AAP and the INC (except for corruption and elitism)?

1. It’s difficult to say because there have been no real elections in MH for a while. Municipal elections have been put off for a while due to COVID and then a farcas over reservations. Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik, Aurangabad are all mostly going to polls later this year. At a more macro level, they have definitely abandoned Hindutva and moved solidly into the opposition camp and I think it’s more of an ideological shift rather than an opportunistic one. They collaborate very closely with the Sharad Pawar/Supriya Sule wing of the NCP and have good relations with the Gandhis.

2. They are more competent and driven as they are primarily grassroots politicians/activists. Also more focused on direct delivery of benefits as opposed to the rights based discourse of the Congress. And the lack of feudalism makes it more akin to a communist party or the BJP than the Congress. Also they’ve tried to turn right on nationalistic/religious issues to some extent. They tried to leverage this in Uttarakhand by declaring a retired army man as their CM candidate (the state has a very high percentage of former soldiers) but the guy lost his deposit. I am definitely more sympathetic to AAP than INC FWIW.

Thank you.
1.I’m asking this because I’ve read an article where Uddhav Thackeray ridiculously claimed that the BJP abandoned Hindutva and not them. Is it fair to assume that the nationalist crowd is going to abandon them in droves?
2.So the AAP is basically a more of a populist party that is to the left of Congress on economic issues and to the right on social issues?
3.what are the differences between the NCP and the INC?

[Sibboleth]

Mar 18, 2022 15:06:09 GMT rcronald said:

3.what are the differences between the NCP and the INC?

The people who run them.

[Georg Ebner]

The ImPression of many, that the INC is now on the verge from temporary to perpetual coma, is underlined by NumberCrunchers (i haven't calculated the vote-% in my table posted earlier because i have not found so far at wikipedia the total numbers of valid votes for this year's stateElec.):

[ibfc]

Mar 18, 2022 15:06:09 GMT rcronald said:

Mar 18, 2022 13:29:31 GMT ibfc said:

1. It’s difficult to say because there have been no real elections in MH for a while. Municipal elections have been put off for a while due to COVID and then a farcas over reservations. Mumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik, Aurangabad are all mostly going to polls later this year. At a more macro level, they have definitely abandoned Hindutva and moved solidly into the opposition camp and I think it’s more of an ideological shift rather than an opportunistic one. They collaborate very closely with the Sharad Pawar/Supriya Sule wing of the NCP and have good relations with the Gandhis.

2. They are more competent and driven as they are primarily grassroots politicians/activists. Also more focused on direct delivery of benefits as opposed to the rights based discourse of the Congress. And the lack of feudalism makes it more akin to a communist party or the BJP than the Congress. Also they’ve tried to turn right on nationalistic/religious issues to some extent. They tried to leverage this in Uttarakhand by declaring a retired army man as their CM candidate (the state has a very high percentage of former soldiers) but the guy lost his deposit. I am definitely more sympathetic to AAP than INC FWIW.

Thank you.
1.I’m asking this because I’ve read an article where Uddhav Thackeray ridiculously claimed that the BJP abandoned Hindutva and not them. Is it fair to assume that the nationalist crowd is going to abandon them in droves?
2.So the AAP is basically a more of a populist party that is to the left of Congress on economic issues and to the right on social issues?
3.what are the differences between the NCP and the INC?

I’ll respond to you in some detail in a while as these are questions that deserve long answers.