Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Apr 17, 2015 19:32:34 GMT
I have received requests for prediction polls in the threads for Reading East and North Swindon while I've been away. I've now added these.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2015 22:14:55 GMT
I've done a map showing the latest VoteUK seat forecasts with gains coloured in. (Thanks to BenWalker for the template):  What is the "Labour gain" in Scotland there? East Dunbartonshire?? |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Apr 18, 2015 23:40:30 GMT
Yes, and it remains so on the current polls
We are quite far out on Scotland, underestimating the SNP, IMO
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on May 12, 2015 20:06:54 GMT
So, how did we do?
I've gone through all my prediction polls and picked out which seats we called right and wrong. I've detailed them all below by region.
A few interesting points: the vast majority of Conservative holds we predicted were correct. The only exceptions were Ilford North and City of Chester (where there was in fact a draw in the poll, but I said I'd stick with the status quo in such cases).
It will be no surprise for me to say we underestimated the Conservative performance and overestimated the scale of Labour gains and Liberal Democrat holds. We massively underestimated the extent of SNP gains in Scotland.
There were five seats in which I did not add a poll where a change of hands occurred: Thornbury and Yate, Yeovil, Morley and Outwood, Gower and Vale of Clwyd.
Here are all the seats that I polled (or should have polled), and how we got on as a Forum:
EAST
Con holds correctly predicted: Castle Point, Great Yarmouth, Harlow, Peterborough, St Albans, South Basildon and East Thurrock, South East Cambridgeshire, Watford
Labour gains from Lib Dem correctly predicted: Norwich South
UKIP gain from Con correctly predicted: Clacton
Labour gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Bedford, Ipswich, Norwich North, Stevenage, Waveney
Liberal Democrat holds incorrectly predicted: Cambridge, Colchester
UKIP gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Thurrock
EAST MIDLANDS
Con holds correctly predicted: Bosworth, High Peak, Loughborough, North West Leicestershire
Lab holds correctly predicted: Ashfield, Chesterfield, Gedling, Nottingham South
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Corby, Erewash, Lincoln, Northampton North, Sherwood
Lab holds incorrectly predicted: Derby North (Con gain)
UKIP gains incorrectly predicted: Boston and Skegness (Con hold)
LONDON
Con holds correctly predicted: Battersea, Enfield Southgate, Finchley and Golders Green, Richmond Park
Lab gains from Con correctly predicted: Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, Enfield North
Lab gains from LD correctly predicted: Brent Central, Hornsey and Wood Green
Lab holds correctly predicted: Dagenham and Rainham, Hampstead and Kilburn, Westminster North
LD holds correctly predicted: Carshalton and Wallington
Con holds incorrectly predicted: Ilford North (Lab gain)
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Croydon Central, Harrow East, Hendon
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Bermondsey and Old Southwark (Lab gain), Kingston and Surbiton (Con gain), Sutton and Cheam (Con gain), Twickenham (Con gain)
NORTH EAST
Con gains from LD correctly predicted: Berwick-upon-Tweed
Lab gains from LD correctly predicted: Redcar
Lab holds correctly predicted: City of Durham, Hartlepool, Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Stockton South
NORTH WEST
Con holds correctly predicted: Crewe and Nantwich, Morecambe and Lunesdale, Pendle, Rossendale and Darwen, South Ribble
Lab gains from Con correctly predicted: Lancaster and Fleetwood, Wirral West
Lab gains from LD correctly predicted: Burnley, Manchester Withington
Lab holds correctly predicted: Blackpool South, Chorley, Heywood and Middleton, Oldham East and Saddleworth, Rochdale, Wirral South
Con holds incorrectly predicted: City of Chester (was a draw in the poll – Lab gain)
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Bury North, Carlisle Warrington South, Weaver Vale
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Cheadle (Con gain), Hazel Grove (Con gain)
SOUTH EAST
Con gains from LD correctly predicted: Portsmouth South
Con holds correctly predicted: Chatham and Aylesford, Crawley, Dover, Folkestone and Hythe, Isle of Wight, Maidstone and the Weald, Milton Keynes South, Oxford West and Abingdon, Portsmouth North, Reading East, Reading West, Romsey and Southampton North, Sittingbourne and Sheppey, Winchester
Green hold correctly predicted: Brighton Pavilion
Lab gains from Con correctly predicted: Hove
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Brighton Kemptown, Hastings and Rye
Lab holds incorrectly predicted: Southampton Itchen (Con gain)
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Eastbourne (Con gain), Eastleigh (Con gain), Lewes (Con gain)
UKIP gains from Con incorrectly predicted: South Thanet
SOUTH WEST
Con gains from LD correctly predicted: Chippenham, Mid Dorset and Poole North, St. Austell and Newquay, Somerton and Frome, Taunton Deane, Wells
Con holds correctly predicted: Bristol North West, Camborne and Redruth, Gloucester, Kingswood, Newton Abbot, North Swindon, South East Cornwall, South Swindon, Torridge and West Devon, Truro and Falmouth, West Dorset, Weston-super-Mare
Lab holds correctly predicted: Exeter
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Stroud
Lab holds incorrectly predicted: Plymouth Moor View (Con gain)
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Bath (Con gain), Bristol West (Lab gain), Cheltenham (Con gain), North Cornwall (Con gain), North Devon (Con gain), St. Ives (Con gain), Torbay (Con gain)
No poll added for: Thornbury and Yate (Con gain from LD), Yeovil (Con gain from LD)
WEST MIDLANDS
Con gains from LD correctly predicted: Solihull
Con holds correctly predicted: Dudley South (draw in poll), Hereford and South Herefordshire, Redditch, Shrewsbury and Atcham, Stafford, Warwick and Leamington, Worcester, Wyre Forest
Lab gains from Con correctly predicted: Wolverhampton South West
Lab holds correctly predicted: Birmingham Edgbaston, Birmingham Northfield, Dudley North, Newcastle-under-Lyme, Walsall North, Walsall South
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Cannock Chase, Halesowen and Rowley Regis, North Warwickshire, Nuneaton
Lab holds incorrectly predicted: Telford (Con gain)
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Birmingham Yardley (Lab gain)
YORKSHIRE AND THE HUMBER
Con holds correctly predicted: Brigg and Goole, Calder Valley, Cleethorpes, Colne Valley, Elmet and Rothwell, Harrogate and Knaresborough, Keighley, Pudsey, York Outer
Lab gains from Con correctly predicted: Dewsbury
Lab gains from LD correctly predicted: Bradford East
Lab holds correctly predicted: Bradford West (regain after by-election loss to Respect), Don Valley, Great Grimsby, Halifax, Rotherham, Rother Valley, Sheffield Central, Wakefield, Wentworth and Dearne
LD holds correctly predicted: Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam
No polls added in: Morley and Outwood (Con gain from Lab)
SCOTLAND
Con hold correctly predicted: Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Lab hold correctly predicted: Edinburgh South
SNP gains from Lab correctly predicted: Aberdeen North, Airdrie and Shotts, Central Ayrshire, Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintillock East, Dundee West, East Kilbride, Strathavan and Lesmahagow, Edinburgh East, Falkirk, Glasgow Central, Glasgow East, Glasgow North, Glasgow South, Inverclyde, Kilmarnock and Loudoun, Lanark and Hamilton East, Linlithgow and East Falkirk, Livingstone, North Ayrshire and Arran, Ochil and South Perthshire, Gordon, Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey, North East Fife, West Dunbartonshire, West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine
SNP gain from LD correctly predicted: Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Con gains from LD incorrectly predicted: Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (SNP gain from LD)
Lab holds incorrectly predicted: Aberdeen South (SNP gain), Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock (SNP gain), Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill (SNP gain), Dumfries and Galloway (SNP gain), Dunfermline and West Fife (SNP gain), East Lothian (SNP gain), East Renfrewshire (SNP gain), Edinburgh North and Leith (SNP gain), Edinburgh South West (SNP gain), Glasgow North East (SNP gain), Glasgow North West (SNP gain), Glasgow South West (SNP gain), Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath (SNP gain), Midlothian (SNP gain), Motherwell and Wishaw (SNP gain), Paisley and Renfrewshire South (SNP gain), Rutherglen and Hamilton West (SNP gain)
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Ross, Skye and Lochaber (SNP gain)
WALES
Con holds correctly predicted: Aberconwy, Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire, Montgomeryshire, Preseli Pembrokeshire, Vale of Glamorgan
Lab holds correctly predicted: Swansea West, Ynys Môn
Lab gains from LD correctly predicted: Cardiff Central
LD holds correctly predicted: Ceredigion
Plaid Cymru holds correctly predicted: Arfon, Carmarthen East and Dinefwr
Lab gains from Con incorrectly predicted: Cardiff North
LD holds incorrectly predicted: Brecon and Radnorshire (Con gain)
No poll added to: Gower (Con gain from Lab), Vale of Clwyd (Con gain from Lab)
NORTHERN IRELAND
DUP gains from All correctly predicted: Belfast East
DUP holds correctly predicted: Belfast North, Strangford, Upper Bann
SDLP holds correctly predicted: Foyle
DUP holds incorrectly predicted: South Antrim (UU gain)
SF holds incorrectly predicted: Fermanagh and South Tyrone (UU gain)
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Post by johnloony on May 15, 2015 17:58:43 GMT
I didn't take the constituency prediction polls very seriously. I tended to click on "Conservative hold" for most of them, without thinking much about them or even checking to see what the previous result was.
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