The Vote UK Prediction

[peterl]

I've just tallied up the excellent spreadsheet summarising our constituency poll voting and, on the basis that constituencies without a poll remain with the incumbent party, as of this morning we are predicting that the next Parliament will look like this

Labour 284
Conservative 274
Lib Dem 35
SNP 27
DUP 9
UKIP 5
SF 5
Plaid 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Independent 1
Speaker 1

Interestingly, this would leave a Con-LD coalition out of reach of even a working majority (Con+LD = 309), a fact that does not change even if UKIP joined the fray (314). Labour + LD on the other hand equals 319. Through in the DUP and that's 328 and a narrow majority. Labour+SNP+DUP+SDLP would equate to 323, which is just about a working majority, and the only workable prospect right now that would not involve the Lib Dems.

[Deleted]

Yesterday afternoon andyajs reported the figures as:

Lab: 284
Con: 277
LD: 35
SNP: 27
UKIP: 4
PC: 3
Green: 1
Spkr: 1
NI: 18

It will be interesting to keep an eye on this in the weeks and months to come.

[Andrew_S]

I've done a spreadsheet summarising the results:

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/10RLXcjEC53skefzikBQ9GC9CzMMqDdGisXxPzQ02ayM/edit?pli=1#gid=0

The last time I did it this morning there were 3 changes from previously: Rochester was UKIP instead of Con, West Aberdeenshire was LD instead of SNP, and Belfast East was DUP instead of Alliance. A few seats have probably changed since then.

Thanks to peter for adding the figures up because it's useful to have a second person doing it independently in case I made any mistakes.

Jan 26, 2015 20:10:23 GMT peterl said:

I've just tallied up the excellent spreadsheet summarising our constituency poll voting and, on the basis that constituencies without a poll remain with the incumbent party, as of this morning we are predicting that the next Parliament will look like this

Labour 284
Conservative 274
Lib Dem 35
SNP 27
DUP 9
UKIP 5
SF 5
Plaid 3
SDLP 3
Green 1
Independent 1
Speaker 1

Interestingly, this would leave a Con-LD coalition out of reach of even a working majority (Con+LD = 309), a fact that does not change even if UKIP joined the fray (314). Labour + LD on the other hand equals 319. Through in the DUP and that's 328 and a narrow majority. Labour+SNP+DUP+SDLP would equate to 323, which is just about a working majority, and the only workable prospect right now that would not involve the Lib Dems.

[Deleted]

Based on what current national opinion polls are telling us three and a half months before the election, I have so far tended to refrain from adding polls for seats in which the Conservatives are defending majorities of more than about 10-12% over Labour and would personally predict Con hold in such seats.
But I can be asked to create them.

[Andrew_S]

I've updated the spreadsheet again. Three new constituencies were added: Enfield Southgate, Aberconwy and Preseli Pembrokeshire which all are Conservative at present although Southgate by just one vote.

Changes this time were:

Portsmouth South: Con (previously LD)
Stroud: Lab (Con)
Glasgow North: SNP (Lab)
Glasgow South: SNP (Lab)
Lanark & Hamilton East: SNP (Lab)
Paisley & Renfrewshire North: SNP (Lab)
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP (LD)

Also, there's a difficulty with Thurrock which was previously UKIP. Now the votes are Con 5, Lab 11, UKIP 11. The rule is when there's a tie it's awarded to the party currently holding the seat but this assumes one of the parties in the tie holds the seat. With this situation neither of the two parties with the same number of votes holds the seat, so I'm not sure what to do. Maybe it should remain unallocated to any party. Or in this case it could be allocated to Labour on the basis that they were closer to winning the seat in 2010 than UKIP.

[bolbridge]

Jan 27, 2015 1:56:08 GMT Andrew_S said:

I've updated the spreadsheet again. Three new constituencies were added: Enfield Southgate, Aberconwy and Preseli Pembrokeshire which all are Conservative at present although Southgate by just one vote.

Changes this time were:

Portsmouth South: Con (previously LD)
Stroud: Lab (Con)
Glasgow North: SNP (Lab)
Glasgow South: SNP (Lab)
Lanark & Hamilton East: SNP (Lab)
Paisley & Renfrewshire North: SNP (Lab)
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP (LD)

Also, there's a difficulty with Thurrock which was previously UKIP. Now the votes are Con 5, Lab 11, UKIP 11. The rule is when there's a tie it's awarded to the party currently holding the seat but this assumes one of the parties in the tie holds the seat. With this situation neither of the two parties with the same number of votes holds the seat, so I'm not sure what to do. Maybe it should remain unallocated to any party. Or in this case it could be allocated to Labour on the basis that they were closer to winning the seat in 2010 than UKIP.

I've just given your Thurrock problem a temporary solution.

[neilm]

Perhaps divvy it up on a Sunday afternoon rather than a rolling basis? At least until parliament is dissolved. I appreciate this is a lot more work (unfortunately I can't help because Sunday is a very busy day for me!).

[Deleted]

Jan 27, 2015 1:56:08 GMT Andrew_S said:

I've updated the spreadsheet again. Three new constituencies were added: Enfield Southgate, Aberconwy and Preseli Pembrokeshire which all are Conservative at present although Southgate by just one vote.

Changes this time were:

Portsmouth South: Con (previously LD)
Stroud: Lab (Con)
Glasgow North: SNP (Lab)
Glasgow South: SNP (Lab)
Lanark & Hamilton East: SNP (Lab)
Paisley & Renfrewshire North: SNP (Lab)
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine: SNP (LD)

Also, there's a difficulty with Thurrock which was previously UKIP. Now the votes are Con 5, Lab 11, UKIP 11. The rule is when there's a tie it's awarded to the party currently holding the seat but this assumes one of the parties in the tie holds the seat. With this situation neither of the two parties with the same number of votes holds the seat, so I'm not sure what to do. Maybe it should remain unallocated to any party. Or in this case it could be allocated to Labour on the basis that they were closer to winning the seat in 2010 than UKIP.

Even though I'd personally prefer a UKIP win in Thurrock over a Labour one, I think your suggestion is a logical and fair one.

[Andrew_S]

Latest Vote UK "projection":

Lab 281
Con 277
LD 33
SNP 31
UKIP 5
PC 3
Green 1
Spkr 1
NI 18

Gains/losses:

32 Lab gains from Con
10 Lab gains from LD
8 Con gains from LD
19 SNP gains from Lab
6 SNP gains from LD
5 UKIP gains from Con
1 DUP gain from Alliance

One new seat was added in Maidstone & The Weald taking the number of constituencies polled to 222.

[Deleted]

Jan 29, 2015 5:37:34 GMT Andrew_S said:

One new seat was added in Maidstone & The Weald taking the number of constituencies polled to 222.

I was hoping to add or amend some more yesterday, but I lost my internet connection shortly afterwards. It'll have to wait until I'm back from work early this evening I'm afraid.

If anyone has any requests for polls or requests for amendments to polls, please inform me. Requests will be better received if you tag my username in the relevant threads or send me a private message - and if you're nice to me.

[Deleted]

Andrew_S

Today, I have so far added new prediction polls to the Hazel Grove, Milton Keynes South and Rother Valley threads.

I realise I have put too much focus on the 2010 results and national opinion polls when I've been creating the other 200+ polls, and not enough focus on subsequent constituency polling and local election results in which UKIP have performed well.

So far today, I have re-set the following polls to add a "UKIP gain" option:
North Cornwall
North Devon
St. Austell and Newquay
St. Ives
Torbay
Walsall North
Wyre Forest

One thing to bear in mind: unfortunately, there's no ProBoards facility to add options to existing polls. All I can do is remove the polls altogether and replace them, so you might want to re-vote in the above threads. I have bumped all them to the top of their respective sub-forums for ease of access.

[Deleted]

Poll added this morning for Rotherham, and poll amended in Cannock Chase to include UKIP gain option.

[The Bishop]

Have now voted in every poll available save for Scotland (in most cases there, I am reserving judgement until much closer to the election)

Would endorse andyajs's call elsewhere for polls on Calder/Colne Valley to be added.

[Deleted]

I've added polls for Calder Valley, Colne Valley and Peterborough.

[Andrew_S]

I was intending to update the spreadsheet every day but there are so many polls now that it would take up too much time. I'll try to update it every 3-4 days.

[neilskye]

Have said this in the thread, but Dumfries and Galloway, if it's being polled at all (which it currently is), should probably have a Con Gain option. Not a likely outcome, but certainly more likely than SNP gain, which is currently an option.

[Deleted]

Polls added to the threads for Sheffield Central, Brigg & Goole, Cleethorpes and Stourbridge.

[iain]

I've done a map of our current prediction, which I shall try to keep updated. I would post it now, but the Add Attachment button appears to have disappeared, so I'm not sure how.

[iain]

FWIW, the current prediction is:
Labour - 284
Conservative - 273
Lib Dem - 34
SNP - 33
DUP - 9
Sinn Fein - 5
UKIP - 4
Plaid Cymru - 3
SDLP - 3
Greens - 1
Independent - 1

[Andrew_S]

Thanks. Not much change since last time: Lab are up about 3 seats and Tories down 3. I'm going to update the spreadsheet tomorrow.