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Post by middleenglander on Jan 19, 2015 0:19:10 GMT
There are 5 by-elections for 6 seats during January, although the by-election on 8th January was not identified until after the result was declared. The prediction competition will consequently be for the 4 remaining by-elections for 5 seats.
* 1 by-election on 8th January - Labour hold, UKIP second and Conservative third
* 2 by-elections on 22nd January
* 1 on 28th January
* 1 on 29th January for 2 seats
1 by-election is for a district council where the seat will be contested again in May
- the by-election held on 8th January will also see the seat contested again in May
the 2 seat by-election is for a district council to replace councillors elected in 2012 and 2014
1 by-election is in a Unitary authority where the seat will be contested again in May
1 by-election is in Scotland where the seats were last ciontested in 2012
Conservatives are defending 4 seats, 2 following the death of the former councillor and 2 a resignation
SNP are defending 1 seat following a resignation
The Conservatives are contesting all the 5 remaining seats, Labour 4, Lib Dems 4, UKIP 5, Greens 3, SNP 1 and 2 Independents contesting 1 seat
- a total of 24 candidates for the 5 seats
As Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens all have 2 candidates in St Albans on 29th January, the prediction should be based on the combined vote of the 2 candidates for each party.
Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on day of the election.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 19, 2015 10:39:47 GMT
As Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, UKIP and Greens all have 2 candidates in St Albans on 29th January, the prediction should be based on the combined vote of the 2 candidates for each party. I wonder if there are any previous instances where the convenience of participants in the Vote UK prediction competition was at least a consideration informing the decision of a local party to ensure they fielded two candidates for a double vacancy byelection.. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 21, 2015 23:44:51 GMT
Fife - Kirkcaldy East
Peter ADAMS (UKIP) 5.2
Edgar COOK (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 6
Liz EASTON (Scottish Labour Party) 44.6
Ronald HUNTER (Independent) 2
Callum LESLIE (Scottish Liberal Democrats) 2.5
Alastair MACINTYRE (Independent) 1
Marie PENMAN (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 32.2
Claire REID (Scottish Green Party) 6.5
Wealden - Crowborough West
Simon STAVELEY (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 33.3
Jeannette TOWEY (The Conservative Party Candidate) 66.7
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 22, 2015 0:42:00 GMT
KIRKCALDY EAST
SNP 40
LAB 32
UKIP 8
CON 7
GRN 7
LD 4
IND-M 1
IND-H 1
CROWBOROUGH WEST
CON 61
UKIP 39
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 22, 2015 1:04:44 GMT
FIFE Kirkcaldy East: SNP 48, Lab 32, C 8, UKIP 4, Ind Macintyre 3, L Dem 2, SGP 2, Ind Hunter 1
WEALDEN Crowborough West: C 66, UKIP 34
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Post by brianj on Jan 22, 2015 1:52:29 GMT
Fife, Kirkcaldy East: Lab 40, SNP 39, Con 6, UKIP 5, Ind MacIntyre 4, LDem 3, Ind Hunter 2, SGP 1.
Wealden, Crowborough West: Con 55, UKIP 45.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 8,975 
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Post by maxque on Jan 22, 2015 3:29:37 GMT
Kirkcaldy East, Fife: Lab 40.9, SNP 34.6, UKIP 9.4, Con 7.7, LD 2.8, Ind MacIntyre 2, Green 1.6, Ind Hunter 1
Crowborough West, Wealden: Con 66.5, UKIP 33.5
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hempie
Forum Regular
Posts: 875
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Post by hempie on Jan 22, 2015 7:56:49 GMT
Fife,Kirkcaldy East: SNP 38, Lab 36, C 7, Green 5, UKIP 4, LD 4, Ind Macintyre 3, Ind Hunter 3
Wealden, Crowborough West: C 70.3, UKIP 29.7
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Post by marksenior on Jan 22, 2015 9:00:02 GMT
Fife Lab 41 SNP 35 Con 7 LD 6 Green 4 UKIP 3 Ind M 2 Ind H 2
Wealden Con 62 UKIP 38
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,257
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 22, 2015 9:48:37 GMT
Wealden: Con 59.8 UKIP 40.2 Fife: Lab 45.4 SNP 37.8 Con 5.2 UKIP 2.8 Grn 2.6 Ind Mac 2.2 LD 2.1 Ind H 1.7 |
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 22, 2015 15:45:29 GMT
9 entries this week with Casual Observer making a welcome reappearance but some recent regulars missing. Tony Otim gets 0.2 additional faults for only adding to 99.8 in Fife.
Fife: 5 Labour gain from SNP with Casual Observer, David Boothroyd, hempie & Pete Whitehead a SNP hold
Wealden: 100% Conservative hold with majority ranging from 10% (brianj) to 40.6% (hempie)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 22, 2015 17:29:14 GMT
Wealden DC - Crowborough West Con 63.6% UKIP 36.4% Fife - Kirkcaldy East SNP 43.6% Lab 35.2% Con 6.7% UKIP 5.7% Grn 3.2% LD 2.8% Ind M 1.5% Ind H 1.3% |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 22, 2015 23:44:02 GMT
Completely forgot about this!
I do intend to participate this year.
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Post by middleenglander on Jan 23, 2015 0:55:04 GMT
Fife, Kirkaldy East
Pete Whitehead 10.4 faults, David Boothroyd 10.7, hempie 19.1, Casual Observer 21.5, brianj 25.3+10, Mark Senior 26.9+10, Tony Otim 27.9+0.2+10, Maxque 30.4+10, PhilDav 32.7+10
Wealden, Crowborough West
Tony Otim 2.2 faults, Casual Observer 4.6, Mark Senior 6.6, brianj 7.4, Pete Whitehead 9.8, David Boothroyd 14.6, Maxque 15.6, PhilDav 16.0, hempie 23.2
and for the week
20.2 Pete Whitehead
25.3 David Boothroyd
26.2 Casual Observer
40.2 Tony Otim
42.3 hempie
42.7 brianj
43.4 Mark Senior
56.0 Maxque
58.7 PhilDav
Objections please by noon Saturday
Two contests next week, one on Wednesday and a two seat contest on Thursday. Predictions on this thread by 9.00am on day of election together with the number of seats won by each party in the Thursday election.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,257
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 23, 2015 9:17:07 GMT
Congratulations to Pete for the week!
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Post by Philip Davies on Jan 23, 2015 10:03:27 GMT
Yay I win with the most points!
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 23, 2015 10:28:33 GMT
Congratulations to Pete for the week! Thanks. Its a shame I haven't got a clue what's going to happen next Thursday... |
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Post by Robert Waller on Jan 25, 2015 18:08:54 GMT
I'll get my entry in now in case I forget again!
(I'm going for 10th place and 1 form guide point for January).
I am assuming that we just need to give one % for each party in the double vacancy.
West Berkshire - Purley on Thames
C 58 UKIP 20 Lab 16 LD 6
St Albans - Marshalswick S
C 38 LD 20 Lab 19 UKIP 11 G 12
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Post by casualobserver on Jan 27, 2015 23:17:06 GMT
West Berkshire - Purley on Thames
Con. 50%; UKIP. 27%; Lab. 14%; LibDem 9%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 28, 2015 0:38:15 GMT
WEST BERKSHIRE Purley-on-Thames: C 59, UKIP 20, Lab 15, L Dem 6
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