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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jan 9, 2015 18:26:12 GMT
Is there any obvious way that Eastern Europe can throw off the Communist yoke without fear of Soviet intervention, or conversely, can it last longer? I have mulled this over and all I can think of is a slightly earlier fall, no more than about 2 years earlier. Events I can think of are:
Earlier
- Janos Kadar of Hungary dying earlier, allowing the reformists to take power earlier.
- Andropov dies earlier, or Chernenko pre-deceases him, allowing Gorbachev to take power earlier.
- Mikhail Suslov decides that martial law isn't enough, and that the Soviet military needs to intervene in Poland- setting off revolts elsewhere.
Later
- Kadar dies much earlier, allowing a anti-reformist such as Karoly Grosz time to consolidate before Gorby's reforms kick in- although Hungary's economy was on its backside.
- Ceaucescu relaxes his austerity approach once the external debt is paid off in 1989, leading to a rebound in Romanian living standards and an unwillingness by the likes of Ionescu to act.
- Ion Gheorge Maurer, rather than Ceaucescu, replaces Gheorgiu-Dei. Maurer follows Ceaucescu's
- Honecker's health worsens and he resigns in favour of Egon Krenz before the Tianamen Square massacre, before Krenz destroys his own career by thanking Deng Xiaoping publicly for being a murderer.
- Tito lasts longer.
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Post by mrhell on Jan 10, 2015 15:29:41 GMT
or of course if the 1991 Russian coup succeeded.
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jan 10, 2015 16:20:45 GMT
or of course if the 1991 Russian coup succeeded. No, this could save the Soviet Union but not, as the OP is calling for, "Eastern Europe". As for the earliest, there's always... Operation Unthinkable. If Stalin dies earlier then there might be no Non-Aligned Movement, but whether that would bode well for the Iron Curtain is uncertain. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jan 10, 2015 17:11:24 GMT
In a nutshell, much of this depends on whether Gorbachev - or some other figure with a similar agenda - could have come to power sooner or later. He was the man who opened the door to glasnost and perestroika and could "do business" with Reagan and Thatcher.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 10, 2015 20:25:21 GMT
For the Iron curtain to have fallen earlier would surely have required that World War 2 ended earlier but in more or less similar style, so perhaps if Operation Market Garden had been a success. It may be that the Western Allies got to Berlin first and avoided any part of Germany being the wrong side of it, but presumably the Iron curtain would have fallen nonetheless, just in a different place
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Jan 10, 2015 20:30:05 GMT
For the Iron curtain to have fallen earlier would surely have required that World War 2 ended earlier but in more or less similar style, so perhaps if Operation Market Garden had been a success. It may be that the Western Allies got to Berlin first and avoided any part of Germany being the wrong side of it, but presumably the Iron curtain would have fallen nonetheless, just in a different place I see what you did there. |
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slon
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Post by slon on Jul 16, 2019 16:35:42 GMT
How do you define the iron curtain? A communist style state running the Soviet Union or the Communist Party running the Soviet Union? If a less open leader than Gorbachev had taken over, or he had been deposed quickly then it is entirely feesable that the Soviet Union could have tried to go down the chinese route of controlled economic liberalisation with political draconianism. Putin as General Secretary of the Communist Party in such circumstances, why ever not. The Soviet satellite states are the ones to consider ... not many were very enthusiastic about being members of the club, but all feared Russia. Once this fear diminished then the breakup of the Warsaw Pact became inevitable.
Star wars was the catalyst, Russia lost confidence in itself and it's power to match Western military technology.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 16:45:40 GMT
How do you define the iron curtain? A communist style state running the Soviet Union or the Communist Party running the Soviet Union? If a less open leader than Gorbachev had taken over, or he had been deposed quickly then it is entirely feesable that the Soviet Union could have tried to go down the chinese route of controlled economic liberalisation with political draconianism. Putin as General Secretary of the Communist Party in such circumstances, why ever not. The Soviet satellite states are the ones to consider ... not many were very enthusiastic about being members of the club, but all feared Russia. Once this fear diminished then the breakup of the Warsaw Pact became inevitable.
Star wars was the catalyst, Russia lost confidence in itself and it's power to match Western military technology.
No. The USSR had avoided the ideological and practical problems that economic reform would have caused by making itself dependent on western debt and western food imports. Then the west threatened to pull the plug unless the USSR did what it wanted. "Star Wars" merely tightened the screw: remaining militarily competitive with the US would have required an increase in the military budget which was simply not feasible. Game over. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 16, 2019 17:01:18 GMT
Even if the Soviet Union doesn't find itself in an economic hole, it eventually cannot keep the satellites out of one either.
East Germany and Hungary would have been bankrupt by 1995 according to their own Politburo reports. Poland was falling apart. Czechoslovakia was in the grips of a fairly spontaneous passive resistance movement that had dragged productivity down to critical levels.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2019 17:12:47 GMT
Even if the Soviet Union doesn't find itself in an economic hole, it eventually cannot keep the satellites out of one either. East Germany and Hungary would have been bankrupt by 1995 according to their own Politburo reports. Poland was falling apart. Czechoslovakia was in the grips of a fairly spontaneous passive resistance movement that had dragged productivity down to critical levels. Hungary under János Kádár used debt to buy goodies to keep the population quiet, rather than for any productive purpose, and the DDR did the same to a lesser extent using West German credits. |
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slon
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Post by slon on Jul 17, 2019 12:22:55 GMT
So could the Iron Curtain have moved to the Soviet or Ukrainian border instead of wholesale disintegration of the Soviet Union? Isn't that sort of what happened? Nothing major changed in the way Russia itself was governed. In fact nothing has changed these last 200 years, a Tzarist ruling class backed by draconian police and internal security system is replaced by a communist ruling class backed by draconian police and internal security system is replaced by a Oligarchic ruling class backed by draconian police and internal security system.
What changed is that the sphere of influence has diminished.
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Post by greenchristian on Jul 17, 2019 14:17:25 GMT
Does anybody think there's a plausible way for the Prague Spring to have led to the Iron Curtain falling?
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 17, 2019 15:16:05 GMT
Does anybody think there's a plausible way for the Prague Spring to have led to the Iron Curtain falling? No. These are matters of supremacy psychology. Whilst you believe in yourself and your superiority and your complete and utter ability to suppress under any circumstances, both parties will regard the status quo as an absolute given and no one will normally challenge it. If they do they must be utterly crushed not just deterred as a signal lesson not to try it again. The whole ediface is predicated on a hierarchy that believes in itself and stamps out self doubt and any new ideas than threaten the supremacy. For that reason the Church and Aristocracy (of any sort) have a vested interest in support and the Universities, Media and Students tend to be natural enemies of the status quo. The introduction of mass education, po-faced evangelical Christianity, Glasnost, devolution and democracy will weaken the empire and should never be allowed to rush ahead lest the seeds of discord get the upper hand. There was no way we could hold India, Cyprus, Egypt (canal) or an Ireland once we stopped being prepared to shoot down crowds, hang trouble makers and thump a lot of people very hard very often. I am the sort of person that held empires together by sheer force of willpower and naked brute strength. They knew that if push came to shove I did have a revolver and would most certainly use it. If I was killed with those few around me, they knew a force would come out from England and zap them very hard indeed. When my sort were bred out by liberals, softies and a general snoflake attitude it collapsed like a pack of cards because the power was people like me who knew what to do and how to do it and had no compunction at all in doing it. Gorbachov was the end and as soon as that was obvious the cards fell. There is no historic imperative, no perfect time, just the collapse of the Will in the few people at the centre that matter. But the good news is that it could all be put to rights by a suprisingly small number of the 'right sort of people' taking their moment and doing it again. Just as Putin has. |
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slon
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Post by slon on Jul 17, 2019 16:14:49 GMT
Does anybody think there's a plausible way for the Prague Spring to have led to the Iron Curtain falling? No. These are matters of supremacy psychology. Whilst you believe in yourself and your superiority and your complete and utter ability to suppress under any circumstances, both parties will regard the status quo as an absolute given and no one will normally challenge it. If they do they must be utterly crushed not just deterred as a signal lesson not to try it again. The whole ediface is predicated on a hierarchy that believes in itself and stamps out self doubt and any new ideas than threaten the supremacy. For that reason the Church and Aristocracy (of any sort) have a vested interest in support and the Universities, Media and Students tend to be natural enemies of the status quo. The introduction of mass education, po-faced evangelical Christianity, Glasnost, devolution and democracy will weaken the empire and should never be allowed to rush ahead lest the seeds of discord get the upper hand. There was no way we could hold India, Cyprus, Egypt (canal) or an Ireland once we stopped being prepared to shoot down crowds, hang trouble makers and thump a lot of people very hard very often. I am the sort of person that held empires together by sheer force of willpower and naked brute strength. They knew that if push came to shove I did have a revolver and would most certainly use it. If I was killed with those few around me, they knew a force would come out from England and zap them very hard indeed. When my sort were bred out by liberals, softies and a general snoflake attitude it collapsed like a pack of cards because the power was people like me who knew what to do and how to do it and had no compunction at all in doing it. Gorbachov was the end and as soon as that was obvious the cards fell. There is no historic imperative, no perfect time, just the collapse of the Will in the few people at the centre that matter. But the good news is that it could all be put to rights by a suprisingly small number of the 'right sort of people' taking their moment and doing it again. Just as Putin has. Why? What is gained?
Sound to me like fanatism for its own sake "redoubling your effort after you've forgotten your aim"
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2019 17:01:45 GMT
Incidentally, what is the best way to wash Iron curtains?
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 17, 2019 17:15:14 GMT
Incidentally, what is the best way to wash Iron curtains? Silvo. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 17, 2019 17:24:07 GMT
Does anybody think there's a plausible way for the Prague Spring to have led to the Iron Curtain falling? Well, one possible thing that could have had an impact would be if Brezhnev had not changed his mind and continued with his plan to order East German troops into Czechoslovakia. That would have been a disaster for the line that West Germany was itching to invade somewhere and that East Germany was all about peace. Czech resistance would probably have been more severe, and I can see the Poles getting fractious. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 17, 2019 17:28:26 GMT
An outlier is Albania. Hoxha nearly died in around 1976, but lived on, and had his right-hand man Shehu murdered in 1981. Rumour has it that Shehu was a bit of a Deng Xiaping groupie who wanted to break Albania out of isolation. You can imagine that if Hoxha dies in 76 and Shehu takes over, Albania starts to be lavished with all sorts of aid. Italy in particular would be keen to make some money in its traditional area of interest.
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 17, 2019 17:30:46 GMT
An outlier is Albania. Hoxha nearly died in around 1976, but lived on, and had his right-hand man Shehu murdered in 1981. Rumour has it that Shehu was a bit of a Deng Xiaping groupie who wanted to break Albania out of isolation. You can imagine that if Hoxha dies in 76 and Shehu takes over, Albania starts to be lavished with all sorts of aid. Italy in particular would be keen to make some money in its traditional area of interest. Might this not have provoked an earlier Kosovo crisis, with the knock on effect for Yugoslavia? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jul 17, 2019 17:38:39 GMT
An outlier is Albania. Hoxha nearly died in around 1976, but lived on, and had his right-hand man Shehu murdered in 1981. Rumour has it that Shehu was a bit of a Deng Xiaping groupie who wanted to break Albania out of isolation. You can imagine that if Hoxha dies in 76 and Shehu takes over, Albania starts to be lavished with all sorts of aid. Italy in particular would be keen to make some money in its traditional area of interest. Might this not have provoked an earlier Kosovo crisis, with the knock on effect for Yugoslavia? Hard to say. I don't know enough to say whether Shehu would have been interested in expansionism. That said, an Albania that was friendly towards China and the West alike might have found itself being "awarded" Kosovo and parts of Macedonia after an inevitable collapse of Yugoslavia. |
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