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Post by AdminSTB on Jan 29, 2015 13:46:05 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 29, 2015 14:09:01 GMT
The accompanying photo of the Ridgeway is in MArshalswick North
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 29, 2015 14:43:27 GMT
On a scale from 1 to 100 with 50 being average how "good" (can't think of a better word) is Marshalswick North for UKIP in terms of the St Albans constituency?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 29, 2015 14:47:56 GMT
Is 50 average for for the St Albans constituency or for the UK and is 100 the best possible nationally or the best possible in St Albans?
Also do you mean to ask about Marshalswick North or Marshalswick South which is where the byelection is?
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Jan 29, 2015 15:05:08 GMT
I would put it like this. If the average for St Albans constituency were 50, the best part of St Albans constituency were 100 and the worst part of St Albans constituency were 0, then Marshalswick North would be about 75. Marshalswick South would be about 25
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 29, 2015 15:21:04 GMT
Is 50 average for for the St Albans constituency or for the UK and is 100 the best possible nationally or the best possible in St Albans? Also do you mean to ask about Marshalswick North or Marshalswick South which is where the byelection is? 50 average for St Albans and 100 best possible St Albans, and for South where the by-election is. (Sorry, I was up all night editing various spreadsheets). |
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Jan 29, 2015 21:04:49 GMT
West Berkshire, Purley-on-Thames - Conservative hold | Party | 2015 votes | 2015 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 936 | 68.1% | +1.0% | -2.2% | +6.8% | +6.3% | | Labour | 172 | 12.5% | -8.7% | -6.0% | -0.1% | -0.2% | | UKIP | 163 | 11.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 104 | 7.6% | -4.1% | -3.7% | -5.8% | -5.0% | | Green | |
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| -12.7% | -12.9% | | Total votes | 1,375 |
| 57% | 61% | 66% | 67% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~5% (top) / ~2% (average) since 2011 and ~3½% since 2007 - similarly Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~2½% since 2011 and ~6% since 2007 A decent Conservative result. Sounds like they had a good candidate |
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Post by bolbridge on Jan 29, 2015 21:26:26 GMT
Rather bizarre of Harry Hayfield on PB to describe St Albans as 'one of Ed Milliband’s must win seats' given the result last time and given the Lib Dems have kept a higher vote share than Labour in local elections.
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Post by andrewteale on Jan 29, 2015 21:51:44 GMT
Harry tends to look at the picture at council level rather than the ward in question, which can mean that his focus is way off the mark.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 29, 2015 23:12:29 GMT
Relatively high 37.5% turnout in Marshalswick South - could be a late one.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 30, 2015 0:38:51 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jan 30, 2015 0:44:34 GMT
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Post by Ben Walker on Jan 30, 2015 0:47:05 GMT
Local news reporters usually have no awareness of how to cover an election.
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
Posts: 8,473
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Post by peterl on Jan 30, 2015 0:49:51 GMT
Maybe the Psephological Society should arrange some training. Incidentially, didn't we have someone at the count tonight who was going to text the info through? Anyone heard any news...
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 30, 2015 0:56:33 GMT
ST ALBANS Marshalswick South
Steve McKeown (Conservative Party) 667
Richard Curthoys (Conservative Party) 647
Mark Anthony Pedroz (Liberal Democrat) 495
Elizabeth Ann Needham (Liberal Democrat) 488
Jill Mills (Green Party) 450
Richard Harris (Labour Party) 406
Vivienne Windle (Labour Party) 312
Tim Robinson (Green Party) 166
David Francis Dickson (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 148
Michael David Hollins (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 147
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 30, 2015 0:59:11 GMT
By averages I make that:
C 33.5
L Dem 25.0
Lab 18.3
GP 15.7
UKIP 7.5
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peterl
Green
Congratulations President Trump
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Post by peterl on Jan 30, 2015 1:01:50 GMT
Well it seems the Green's first and second choice approach has worked here, almost 300 votes separating Mills and Robinson, compared to only 1 vote between say the two UKIP candidates.
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 30, 2015 1:04:37 GMT
I think you may have done the St Albans Review a disservice as the figures are there now. You were probably quicker typing than their reporter. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jan 30, 2015 1:06:45 GMT
Well it seems the Green's first and second choice approach has worked here, almost 300 votes separating Mills and Robinson, compared to only 1 vote between say the two UKIP candidates. Has it worked? Just under 300 people who were fully prepared to vote for a Green Party candidate, were not prepared to go the whole hog and use all their votes for the Green Party. |
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Post by independentukip on Jan 30, 2015 1:09:15 GMT
Well it seems the Green's first and second choice approach has worked here, almost 300 votes separating Mills and Robinson, compared to only 1 vote between say the two UKIP candidates. Surely one of those Green figures must be wrong? Edit: If they're not wrong have they ever had such a disparity before in voting figures where they've used the 1st choice, etc option? |
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