Taiwan

[Georg Ebner]

Provincial trends (=deViations from national average):
- variant 1a - partyVotes measured at all eligible votes, province minus Taiwan:
Participation:

InValid:





- variant 1b - partyVotes measured at all eligible votes, province divided by Taiwan:






- variant 2a - partyVotes measured at only valid votes, province minus Taiwan:






- variant 2b - partyVotes measured at only valid votes, province divided by Taiwan:

[Georg Ebner]

OpinionPolls (just those of last month, none were allowed to get published since NewYear):

Parliament:

[Georg Ebner]

Few thousand votes counted and it's neck-to-neck - but of DPP's Lai and DPP's Ke!
Of course: it might change later.

[Georg Ebner]

100.000 done and it's a threeWay with DPP's Lai ahead.
TPP establishing itself as third choice would be KMT's nightMare.

[Georg Ebner]

With Taiwan's media being very partisan (Green-Blue) the voteCounts differ partly drastically.
But DPP's Lai is in all ahead by ~5%.
Close fight for nr. 2.

[Georg Ebner]

With 6 million votes the distance DPP vs. KMT and KMT vs. TPP is both times ~5%:

37-40% Lai (DPP)
33% Hou (KMT)
27-30% Ko (TPP)

Lai will have received roughly those 40%, which are his ceiling. It was Hou, who failed to appeal to Ko-voters.
KMT attracts mostly elderly woMen with low formal education, TPP the exact opPosite: young well-educated men.

[dizz]

LInk to results with nice map:

www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-taiwan-election/

[mrpastelito]

Lai won't have a parliamentary majority behind him.