Prediction Competition December 2014

[middleenglander]

It looks like 17 by-elections during December:
* 3 on Thursday 4th
* 1 on Friday 5th
*11 on Thursday 11th
* 2 on Thursday 18th

10 of the contests are in District Coiuncils
- 7 for seats which will face re-election in May
- 3 in seats last elected in May this year
2 are in County Councils last elected in 2013
1 in a Metropolitan Borough last elected in May this year
1 in a London Borough last elected in May
2 in Scottish authorities last elected in 2012
1 in a Welsh authority also last elected in 2012

Conservatives are defending 5 seats, 3 following the death of the former councillor and 2 a resignation
Labour is defending 6 seats, 2 following a death and 4 a resignation
Liberal Democrats are defending 1 seat following a resignation
Independents are defending 2 seats, 1 after a death and 1 following an ill health resignation
A Resident Group is not defending a previous seat following the death of its councillor
UKIP is defending 1 seat following a death
SNP is defending 1 seat following a resignation.

With all nominations declared there are a total of 71 candidates for the 17 seats
- Conservatives are contesting 15 seats, Labour 16, Liberal Democrats 10, UKIP 15, Green 6 together with 4 Independents
- there are also 2 SNP, 1 Plaid Cymru, 1 Lincolnshire Independent and 1 TUSAC

Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am on the day of the election.

[marksenior]

Mansfield Lab 62 UKIP 32 TUSC 6
Rossendale Lab 40 Con 36 UKIP 24
Thurrock UKIP 46 Con 34 Lab 14 Ind 6
Adur Con 43 UKIP 27 Lab 18 Green 12

[Robert Waller]

Mansfield Lab 61 UKIP 34 TUSC 5
Rossendale Lab 41 Con 33 UKIP 26
Thurrock UKIP 45 Con 30 Lab 15 Ind 10
Adur Con 38 UKIP 27 Lab 22 Green 13

[Philip Davies]

Mansfield - Netherfield
Seymour, Karen Rachel Mary - TUSAC 5
Walker, Sid -  UKIP 31
Wright, Lesley Sarah - Labour 64

Rossendale - Longholme
BARNES, Gary - UKIP 22.6
MCMAHON, Annie - Labour 46.4
MOCKETT, Mischa - Conservative 31

Thurrock - Aveley & Uplands
Tim Aker - UKIP 43.1
John O’Regan - Labour 22.7
Eddie Stringer - Independent 7.1
Teresa Webster - Conservative 27.1

Adur - St Mary's
Chipp, Stephen - Conservative 41.8
Greig, Jenny - UKIP 21.5
Reed, Irene - Labour 22.7
Tindall, Jennie - Green 14

[brianj]

Mansfield, Netherfield: Lab 51, UKIP 47, TUSC 2.
Rossendale, Longholme: Lab 42, UKIP 31, Con 27.
Thurrock, Aveley & Uplands: UKIP 50, Con 34, Lab 11, Ind 5.
Adur, St. Mary's: Con 36, UKIP 30, Lab 28, Green 6.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

MANSFIELD Netherfield: Lab 54, UKIP 39, TUSC 7
ROSSENDALE Longholme: Lab 48, C 30, UKIP 22
THURROCK Aveley and Uplands: UKIP 58, C 25, Lab 11, Ind 6

And Friday's:
ADUR St Mary's: C 38, Lab 30, UKIP 26, GP 6.

[maxque]

Netherfield, Mansfield: Lab 55.7, UKIP 37.4, TUSC 6.9
Longholme, Rossendale: Lab 44.9, Con 32.3, UKIP 22.8
Aveley and Uplands, Thurrock: UKIP 49.7, Con 24.2, Lab 17.7, Ind 8.4
St. Mary's, Adur: Con 38, Lab 28.6, UKIP 23.1, Grn 10.3

[Deleted]

Mansfield
Lab 63
Ukip 33
Tusc 4

Rossendale
Lab 43
Con 32
Ukip 25

Thurrock
Ukip 46.5
Con 28.5
Lab 17
Ind

Adur
Con 40
Ukip 27
Lab 24
Green 9

[hempie]

Mansfield, Netherfield: Lab 69, UKIP 27, TUSC 4
Rossendale, Longholme: Lab 41, Con 31, UKIP 28
Thurrock, Aveley & Uplands: UKIP 46, Lab 23, Con 21, Ind 10
Adur, St. Mary's: Con 40, UKIP 22, Lab 22, Green 16

[hedgehog]

Mansfield
Lab 61
Ukip 32
Tusc 7

Rossendale
Lab 44
Con 32
Ukip 24

Thurrock
Ukip 40
Con 30
Lab 20
Ind 10

Adur
Con 40
Ukip 23
Lab 21
Green 16

[Tony Otim]

Dec 2, 2014 16:14:48 GMT Tony Otim said:

Mansfield:
Lab 58.3
UKIP 36.3
TUSC 5.4

Rossendale:
Lab 43.4
Con 31.4
UkIP 25.2


Thurrock:
UKIP 41.6
Con 26.1
Lab 18.1
Ind 14.2


Adur:
Con 36.5
UKIP 26.2
Lab 22.9
Grn 14.4

[Pete Whitehead]

Thurrock UA - Aveley & Uplands

UKIP 43.5%
Con 29.9%
Lab 21.7%
Ind 4.9%


Adur DC - St Marys

Con 38.9%
UKIP 23.3%
Lab 21.3%
Grn 16.5%


Mansfield DC - Netherfield

Lab 52.6%
UKIP 43.9%
TUSC 3.5%


Rossendale BC - Longholme

Lab 41.5%
Con 31.5%
UKIP 27.0%

[middleenglander]

12 entries this week with a first from jamieredhead. Unfortunately he was over 2½ hours late with his prediction so incurs 15 additional faults for each of today's 3 by-election along with 10 additional faults for adding to only 90% in Thurrock. Joe also incurs 8 additional faults in Thurrock for adding to only 92% with no prediction for the Independent.

Mansfield: 11 Labour gain from Mansfield Independent who have no candidate, the majority ranging from 4% (brianj) to 42% (hempie)
- with jamieredhead a UKIP gain (Pete Whitehead also had a UKIP gain until an amendment just within time)
Rossendale: 100% Labour hold with a majority ranging from 4% (Mark Senior) to 18% (DAvid Boothroyd)
Thurrock: 100% UKIP hold with a majority ranging from 10% (hedgehog) to 33% (David Boothroyd)

[Tony Otim]

Dec 4, 2014 16:12:31 GMT middleenglander said:

12 entries this week with a first from jamieredhead. Unfortunately he was over 2½ hours late with his prediction so incurs 15 additional faults for each of today's 3 by-election along with 10 additional faults for adding to only 90% in Thurrock. Joe also incurs 8 additional faults in Thurrock for adding to only 92% with no prediction for the Independent.

Mansfield: 11 Labour gain from Mansfield Independent who have no candidate, the majority ranging from 4% (brianj) to 42% (hempie)
- with jamieredhead a UKIP gain (Pete Whitehead also had a UKIP gain until an amendment just within time)
Rossendale: 100% Labour hold with a majority ranging from 4% (Mark Senior) to 18% (DAvid Boothroyd)
Thurrock: 100% UKIP hold with a majority ranging from 10% (hedgehog) to 33% (David Boothroyd)

I can't remember clearly, but I thought there had previously been a suggestion of one-off leniency for new contestants who are maybe not fully aware if the rules re:timing of entries???

In any case, welcome and good luck to Jamie.

[Pete Whitehead]

I would go for waiving the late entry faults

[Pete Whitehead]

I believe my faults are not as high as that in Mansfield based on my published prediction

[middleenglander]

Dec 5, 2014 0:32:44 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I believe my faults are not as high as that in Mansfield based on my published prediction

Quite right - forget to enter your amended prediction although I did not fault you for a wrong winner.

[Tony Otim]

Assuming the Labour win is the right result for Rossendale, I feel pretty damn pleased with myself on those three results!

[maxque]

Dec 5, 2014 11:08:27 GMT Tony Otim said:

Assuming the Labour win is the right result for Rossendale, I feel pretty damn pleased with myself on those three results!

So do I. I don't regret beginning to enter the competition.

[middleenglander]

Mansfield, Netherfield - amended
Tony Otim 2.3 faults, Maxque 4.1, Robert Waller 6.9, David Boothroyd 7.5, Joe 10.5, hedgehog & Mark Senior 10.9, Pete Whitehead & PhilDav 12.9, brianj 19.1, hempie 22.5, jamieredhead 23.5+10 ignoring late entry penalty

Rossendale, Longholme - assuming unofficial result is correct
Maxque 3.0 faults, hedgehog 3.6, Joe 5.2, PhilDav & Tony Otim 5.6, Robert Waller 7.2, Mark Senior 7.6, David Boothroyd 8.4, Pete Whitehead 9.2, hempie 11.2, brianj 17.2, jamieredhead 25.2 ignoring late entry penalty

Thurrock, Aveley & Uplands
hedgehog & Tony Otim 5.8 faults, Robert Waller 10.9, PhilDav 12.5, Pete Whitehead 14.0, Maxque 17.4, hempie 18.9, Mark Senior 20.9, Joe 19.0+8, brianj 28.9, David Boothroyd 34.0, jamieredhead 28.0+10 ignoring late entry penalty

and before the Adur result:
Tony Otim 13.7 faults, hedgehog 20.3, Maxque 24.6, Robert Waller 25.0, PhilDav 31.0, Pete Whitehead 36.2, Mark Senior 39.4, Joe 42.8, David Boothroyd 49.9, hempie 52.7, brianj 65.3, jamieredhead 96.7

Adur, St Mary's
Maxque 6.8 faults, Robert Waller 7.2, Joe & Tony Otim 8.4, Pete Whitehead 10.0, PhilDav 10.8, hedgehog & hempie 11.2, David Boothroyd 12.8, Mark Senior 14.4, brianj 16.8, jamieredhead 17.2

and for the week:

22.1 Tony Otim
31.4 Maxque
31.6 hedgehog
32.3 Robert Waller

41.8 PhilDav
46.2 Pete Whitehead
51.1 Joe - would have been 35.1 if he had not messed up the Thurrock Independent
53.8 Mark Senior

62.7 David Boothroyd
63.9 hempie
82.1 brianj
114.0 jamieredhead

Objections please by 5 pm Sunday.

There are 11 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday.