Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2014 12:28:09 GMT
In real life in the 2007 Holyrood election, the SNP gained Cunninghame North from Labour with a majority of just 48. Controversially, there were over a thousand rejected ballot papers, the ballot papers from Arran were damp when they arrived at the count, and there was an alleged discrepancy in the number of ballot papers from Arran too. To complicate matters further, there was an ex-SNP outgoing independent MSP in the race who polled 14.6% and who could plausibly have taken a few more votes from the SNP. Labour won every other constituency in the West of Scotland region and didn't qualify for any regional list seats, which were allocated as four SNP, two Conservative and one LibDem.
It's not hard to imagine a slightly different result in Cunninghame North. Labour narrowly holding this seat would have increased their proportional over-representation in the West of Scotland region and wouldn't have changed the d'Hont allocations for list seats. The net result would have been one more seat for Labour and one fewer seat for the SNP. Consequently, the overall composition of the Scottish Parliament would have been Lab 47, SNP 46, Con 17, LD 16, Grn 2, Ind 1. The SNP would have narrowly topped the national poll, but narrowly failed to emerge as the largest party.
In the event, Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond both claim a moral victory of sorts and both set about trying to form an administration. In real life, the LibDems indicated that they would consider it undemocratic to form a coalition without the largest party, but it's unclear what they'd consider to be the largest party in this scenario. Labour-LibDem is narrowly short of a majority and fails to gain Green support due to Labour's stance on nuclear power. SNP-LibDem-Green is also narrowly short of a majority and is consequently taken even less seriously than it was in real life. As in real life, the Conservatives don't feature in any coalition negotiations, and Margo remains determined to abstain. This leaves Robin Harper and Patrick Harvie as effective king-makers. They can either support a precarious minority SNP administration that can easily be outvoted by Labour without ongoing commitment from the Greens, or they can abstain and allow a minority Labour administration. Both options risk dividing their party and alienating many of their supporters.
In the end, the Greens decide that it would be unreasonable for them to effectively install a government run by the second largest party in the Parliament and abstain. The fact than an SNP-LibDem-Green coalition was seen as a non-starter from the outset had meant that the Greens hadn't been taken all that seriously in any coalition talks anyway. Consequently, Jack McConnell is elected First Minister in the second round by 47 votes to 46, and forms a minority Labour administration.
The inevitable questions now are what happens between 2007 and 2011, and, more significantly, what happens in the 2011 election.
It's not hard to imagine a slightly different result in Cunninghame North. Labour narrowly holding this seat would have increased their proportional over-representation in the West of Scotland region and wouldn't have changed the d'Hont allocations for list seats. The net result would have been one more seat for Labour and one fewer seat for the SNP. Consequently, the overall composition of the Scottish Parliament would have been Lab 47, SNP 46, Con 17, LD 16, Grn 2, Ind 1. The SNP would have narrowly topped the national poll, but narrowly failed to emerge as the largest party.
In the event, Jack McConnell and Alex Salmond both claim a moral victory of sorts and both set about trying to form an administration. In real life, the LibDems indicated that they would consider it undemocratic to form a coalition without the largest party, but it's unclear what they'd consider to be the largest party in this scenario. Labour-LibDem is narrowly short of a majority and fails to gain Green support due to Labour's stance on nuclear power. SNP-LibDem-Green is also narrowly short of a majority and is consequently taken even less seriously than it was in real life. As in real life, the Conservatives don't feature in any coalition negotiations, and Margo remains determined to abstain. This leaves Robin Harper and Patrick Harvie as effective king-makers. They can either support a precarious minority SNP administration that can easily be outvoted by Labour without ongoing commitment from the Greens, or they can abstain and allow a minority Labour administration. Both options risk dividing their party and alienating many of their supporters.
In the end, the Greens decide that it would be unreasonable for them to effectively install a government run by the second largest party in the Parliament and abstain. The fact than an SNP-LibDem-Green coalition was seen as a non-starter from the outset had meant that the Greens hadn't been taken all that seriously in any coalition talks anyway. Consequently, Jack McConnell is elected First Minister in the second round by 47 votes to 46, and forms a minority Labour administration.
The inevitable questions now are what happens between 2007 and 2011, and, more significantly, what happens in the 2011 election.
