Post by john07 on Nov 18, 2014 16:09:12 GMT
The SNP made great strides forward in the Genaral Elections of 1974 ending up with around 850,000 votes and 11 Westminster MPs in October. They had a good track record in recent by-elections with Winnie Ewing winning Hamilton in 1967 and Margo McDonald taking Govan in 1973. After nearly four years without a by-election in Scotland, two arrived closely together in Garscadden and Hamilton.
The SNP were riding high in opinion polls and had done well in the 1977 District Council Elections. They looked strong favourites to take both seats. Labour selected Donald Dewar, out of Parlament since losing Aberdeen South to Iain Sproat in 1970 while the SNP picked Keith Bovey who had a finished in a decent second place in the October General Election. Bovey was a senior member of CND and had a reputation of being a pacifist. The Liberals stood down but the seat was contested by the renegade Scottish Labour Party of Jim Sillars as well as by the Communists and Socialist Workers.
Garscadden was vulnerable to a 10% swing. Dewar and Labour fought a great campaign and restricted the SNP to a 3.5% swing and won convincingly. That gave Labour the momentum needed to win the potentially more vulnerable Hamilton seat a month later. Margo McDonald contested for the SNP and was well beaten by George Robertson. The SNP lost ground in the 1978 Regional Council elections and were humiliated in the Berwick and East Lothian by-election later in the year.
In the 1979 General Election, the SNP were reduced to two Westminster seats and this led to a period of civil war between the old guard and the 79 group (including Alex Salmond). The latter group were expelled but later came back to take over the party.
Had Dewar lost, it is safe to assume that Hamilton would also have fallen and the next General Election might have panned out very differently in Scotland. Maybe the Government would have fallen before 1979 and the first devolution referendum might not have happened?
The SNP were riding high in opinion polls and had done well in the 1977 District Council Elections. They looked strong favourites to take both seats. Labour selected Donald Dewar, out of Parlament since losing Aberdeen South to Iain Sproat in 1970 while the SNP picked Keith Bovey who had a finished in a decent second place in the October General Election. Bovey was a senior member of CND and had a reputation of being a pacifist. The Liberals stood down but the seat was contested by the renegade Scottish Labour Party of Jim Sillars as well as by the Communists and Socialist Workers.
Garscadden was vulnerable to a 10% swing. Dewar and Labour fought a great campaign and restricted the SNP to a 3.5% swing and won convincingly. That gave Labour the momentum needed to win the potentially more vulnerable Hamilton seat a month later. Margo McDonald contested for the SNP and was well beaten by George Robertson. The SNP lost ground in the 1978 Regional Council elections and were humiliated in the Berwick and East Lothian by-election later in the year.
In the 1979 General Election, the SNP were reduced to two Westminster seats and this led to a period of civil war between the old guard and the 79 group (including Alex Salmond). The latter group were expelled but later came back to take over the party.
Had Dewar lost, it is safe to assume that Hamilton would also have fallen and the next General Election might have panned out very differently in Scotland. Maybe the Government would have fallen before 1979 and the first devolution referendum might not have happened?
