Deal? No deal.

[jonarny]

Nick Clegg looks at the Coalition deal on the table with the Conservative Party.  Many in his Party would prefer a deal with Labour than with the Conservatives.  A deal has almost been ironed out  but there are two huge sticking points:

1.  A referendum on proportional representation.   Cameron tries to fob him off with a referendum on AV, but Clegg insists on a truly proportional system.
2.  Lib Dems must be free to follow their General Election promise and vote against tuition fees.  

Instinctively, Clegg's desire for power is tempered by a bit of common sense.  Political parties have broken promises before, but tuition fees will come up early in the term and the electorate might not easily forgive.  And would AV really make that much difference to the political system?

The deal just isn't good enough.  Clegg draws his lines in the sand; without movement on those two issues there would be no deal.  It proves a step too far for Cameron.

The arithmetic isn't really there for a Labour-Lib Dem pact though.  Clegg would struggle to work with Brown, who had lost the popular vote, and their personalities clashed anyway.  After a couple of hours of negotiation it becomes clear that the differences there were too wide, notwithstanding the fact that they would need other minor parties to join in.

Nick Clegg feels compelled to make an announcement, which wrong-foots both Cameron and Brown.  The Lib Dems could not enter a coalition agreement with either Labour or the Conservatives.  They would abstain on the Queen's Speech, and Cameron's minority government would stand or fall on its merits.

An unstable minority Conservative government makes for a virtual recipe for a fresh set of elections within a year.  Talk of a 'Fixed-term Parliament Act', as some called it, was lost in the bin underneath the negotiating table.  If Cameron proved to be a popular PM, he would dissolve Parliament in short order and seek a fresh mandate.  If he proved unpopular, it would not be long before his opponents managed to contrive an issue around which to hang a vote of no confidence.

One thing was certain: politics in late 2010 would be very interesting indeed.  

Some years later when Clegg wrote his memoirs, he called the decision 'the most important decision of my career'.  "If", he wrote, "I had signed that Coalition agreement, there's a very real chance that the Party might have fallen into a downward spiral from which it would take decades to recover, if at all."  

[manchesterman]

I must confess that that is precisely what I expected Clegg to do (i.e. sit on his hands) after the election took its course. It would then have been up to a Tory minority govt to stand or fall on its own record.

I had hoped for a Lib-LD coalition in the day leading up to the election (as this is roughly where I stand politically) but once the maths worked out that that couldnt happen, I honestly thought Clegg would have abstained on a Queens Speech, backed the Tory Govt where they thought it was right, and voted it down where they thought it was wrong. That is how I believe politics should be run, rather than shady trade-offs of this policy for that one, in darkly lit rooms with no one knowing whats really going on.

Excellent piece John.

[mrhell]

I suspect we'd get blamed for allowing an unstable government (if Cameron had half a brain it's what he should say). I'd be surprised if Cameron didn't win a new election and we struggled in it.

[Crimson King]

Yes, you missed the bit where the economy goes tits up, and we get wiped out in the Autumn election, folowed by five years of unfettered tory government (all the austerity and more, no pupil premium, no increases in basic allowance, fewer apprenticeships, no childcare support and additional free school meals etc etc)

We might have had a great time mopping up council seats in opposition whilst the country suffered, but sometimes you have to do what is right, even if it hurts.

[jonarny]

I don't necessarily share the view that the Conservatives would automatically win an autumn election; 1974 was very different in many respects and doesn't in my view set a precedent. I don't think that, in the political climate of the time, it was likely that the Conservatives could achieve the 40% (say) of the vote required for a workable majority which would go a full term.

The minority government would have felt it necessary to introduce at least some cuts immediately, which wouldn't have been particularly popular.

Part of the reason for Labour's 2010 defeat was Gordon Brown's unpopularity. He would presumably have been forced to resign as Labour leader anyway, and I think there's scope here for someone other than Ed Miliband to have been chosen as the replacement.

With another General Election on the cards, I suspect that Labour would have had incentive to go for a stronger communicator. With a second election expected soon, other candidates might have emerged (I'm thinking of Alan Johnson for example, who might have stood under such circumstances). Cameron's minority government wouldn't have lasted long, but the Conservatives were not a particularly united force.

The main reason I wrote the original post, was I was interested in people's speculation about what would have happened next. Each of the following seem plausible to me:

1. A second General Election produces a similar outcome to the first. Cameron gets a bit of benefit of the doubt, which counteracts a small Labour bounce from their leadership election.
2. Labour recover a tiny amount and become the largest overall Party, possibly leading to the question of a Labour/Lib Dem coalition.
3. A wafer-thin Conservative overall majority, sufficient to get them through a couple of years but not a full term.

I suspect under such circumstances the Lib Dem vote might have suffered a couple of percentage points squeeze, but that they would hold on to their seats easily enough. In such a scenario, the rise of UKIP would be much more difficult as well.

[Crimson King]

I think we will have to agree to disagree. I have no doubt that an autumn election "to give the country the clear government it obviously needs" on the background of a financial crisis still plausibly layable at the feet of the outgoing government and with a seriously financially depleted Labour and Liberal Democrat parties would have led to a workable Tory majority

[jonarny]

Labour in 1974 were able to demonstrate some progress before going to the country. Even then, in a Parliament with far fewer minor party seats, they only achieved an overall majority of 3.

Another question: would a second election really have happened by the autumn? In 1974, the gap was from February to October with a Parliament that was much more hung (Con and Lab were only 4 seats apart). A new Parliament would not have got very far before the summer recess, so after a Lib Dem abstention on the Queen's Speech there wouldn't have been much time to do anything by the autumn.

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 6, 2014 0:20:58 GMT manchesterman said:

I must confess that that is precisely what I expected Clegg to do (i.e. sit on his hands) after the election took its course. It would then have been up to a Tory minority govt to stand or fall on its own record.

I had hoped for a Lib-LD coalition in the day leading up to the election (as this is roughly where I stand politically) but once the maths worked out that that couldnt happen, I honestly thought Clegg would have abstained on a Queens Speech, backed the Tory Govt where they thought it was right, and voted it down where they thought it was wrong. That is how I believe politics should be run, rather than shady trade-offs of this policy for that one, in darkly lit rooms with no one knowing whats really going on.

Excellent piece John.

An excellent prospect

Assuming you meant a Lab-LD coalition there would have been huge political issues, numbers aside. Who becomes PM? Brown? [but we've just voted him out"] Miliband? [an unelected PM].

[Deleted]

Dr. B would be a tory by now. As it is (checks watch), we have another 5 months to go.

[carlton43]

Nov 6, 2014 0:20:58 GMT manchesterman said:

I must confess that that is precisely what I expected Clegg to do (i.e. sit on his hands) after the election took its course. It would then have been up to a Tory minority govt to stand or fall on its own record.

I had hoped for a Lib-LD coalition in the day leading up to the election (as this is roughly where I stand politically) but once the maths worked out that that couldnt happen, I honestly thought Clegg would have abstained on a Queens Speech, backed the Tory Govt where they thought it was right, and voted it down where they thought it was wrong. That is how I believe politics should be run, rather than shady trade-offs of this policy for that one, in darkly lit rooms with no one knowing whats really going on.

Excellent piece John.

I just love "...darkly lit rooms" now that smoking has been outlawed. Are there special dark light bulbs?

[manchesterman]

I think I was overly tired when I wrote that gramatically-incorrect tripe

The general thrust stands (I hope)

[manchesterman]

Actually I quite like "darkly lit" - I think I just invented a new oxymoron

[carlton43]

Cameron was either an inexperienced fool to go into coalition, or he needed a coalition to temper the quite strong right-wing and euro-sceptic tendency in his party. I am quite sure that that an emergency austerity package by a minority Conservative administration would have been well received by enough people to win a majority at the second GE probably called or forced within 18-months.

Then there would have been policies much more along the lines suggested by CK above. In the second GE the LibDems would have taken a squeeze and UKIP would have lost that initial propulsion caused by revulsion of many on the right to coalition. So, on balance I am happy that Cameron did what he did as it helped UKIP very materially.

[finsobruce]

Nov 15, 2014 0:08:56 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 6, 2014 0:20:58 GMT manchesterman said:

I must confess that that is precisely what I expected Clegg to do (i.e. sit on his hands) after the election took its course. It would then have been up to a Tory minority govt to stand or fall on its own record.

I had hoped for a Lib-LD coalition in the day leading up to the election (as this is roughly where I stand politically) but once the maths worked out that that couldnt happen, I honestly thought Clegg would have abstained on a Queens Speech, backed the Tory Govt where they thought it was right, and voted it down where they thought it was wrong. That is how I believe politics should be run, rather than shady trade-offs of this policy for that one, in darkly lit rooms with no one knowing whats really going on.

Excellent piece John.

I just love "...darkly lit rooms" now that smoking has been outlawed. Are there special dark light bulbs?

Well, yes there are: www.glow.co.uk/uv-black-light-bulb.html  "Ideal for people wanting to play with black light without having to change batteries or mount any new light-fixtures to the wall."
This is mostly , but not exclusively, UV we're talking about : en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_light

[carlton43]

Nov 15, 2014 10:14:17 GMT finsobruce said:

Nov 15, 2014 0:08:56 GMT carlton43 said:

I just love "...darkly lit rooms" now that smoking has been outlawed. Are there special dark light bulbs?

Well, yes there are: www.glow.co.uk/uv-black-light-bulb.html  "Ideal for people wanting to play with black light without having to change batteries or mount any new light-fixtures to the wall."
This is mostly , but not exclusively, UV we're talking about : en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_light

One may always rely upon you for the interestingly esoteric fact. I nearly understand this one!

[manchesterman]

Yes those are the bulbs they have installed in those rooms where coalition deals are thrashed out! It all comes full circle in the end

[anthony]

Nov 16, 2014 12:06:41 GMT manchesterman said:

Yes those are the bulbs they have installed in those rooms where coalition deals are thrashed out! It all comes full circle in the end

I like the way that it's implied that people engaged in something sneaky wouldn't want to see very well.