Post by mrhell on Nov 4, 2014 21:32:20 GMT
Steven Douglas decides that he is more interested in running for President in 1860 than winning the 1858 Illinois Senate race vs Lincoln. To this end he doesn't moderate his language on slavery and loses Democratic votes in the north of Illinois (and possibly the endorsement of former Whig John Crittenden). Instead of winning 54-46 (in those days Senators were elected by the legislature) he loses to Lincoln.
The Southern Democrats are satisfied with Douglas as the Democrat candidate for 1860 as he hasn't compromised on slavery and so see no need to nominate Breckinridge in opposition (the reality is that the northern Democrats nominated Douglas and the southern Democrats nominated Breckinridge). Assuming that the northern Democrats are still satisfied with Douglas we should be left with a straight Lincoln-Douglas fight unless Bell's Constitutional Union Party gets involved. Looking at the results from 1860 I'm not sure it would have made much difference. Douglas would have probably picked up California and Oregon but that's only seven extra votes. He may have done worse in New Jersey. If only California and Oregon change then Douglas still loses by 173-130. Lincoln would probably lose the popular vote as he will still get annihilated in the south.
Another interesting vote from that time was Alabama's vote to secede with 61-39 which may be the closest successful secession vote. I wonder what would have happened if 11 votes had gone the other way. Obviously, their future wouldn't have been great surrounded by the Confederacy but it might have given the Union a way in through the south if they acted quickly.
The Southern Democrats are satisfied with Douglas as the Democrat candidate for 1860 as he hasn't compromised on slavery and so see no need to nominate Breckinridge in opposition (the reality is that the northern Democrats nominated Douglas and the southern Democrats nominated Breckinridge). Assuming that the northern Democrats are still satisfied with Douglas we should be left with a straight Lincoln-Douglas fight unless Bell's Constitutional Union Party gets involved. Looking at the results from 1860 I'm not sure it would have made much difference. Douglas would have probably picked up California and Oregon but that's only seven extra votes. He may have done worse in New Jersey. If only California and Oregon change then Douglas still loses by 173-130. Lincoln would probably lose the popular vote as he will still get annihilated in the south.
Another interesting vote from that time was Alabama's vote to secede with 61-39 which may be the closest successful secession vote. I wonder what would have happened if 11 votes had gone the other way. Obviously, their future wouldn't have been great surrounded by the Confederacy but it might have given the Union a way in through the south if they acted quickly.
