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Post by Right Leaning on Oct 22, 2014 17:01:21 GMT
I attach the Manchester results since 1973 which I hope are of interest to people. Fascinating to see the decline of the Tories over the years. Cheers Steve Manchester MB.xlsx (906.39 KB) |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774 
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Post by john07 on Oct 23, 2014 12:23:41 GMT
I attach the Manchester results since 1973 which I hope are of interest to people. Fascinating to see the decline of the Tories over the years. Cheers Steve View AttachmentIt is amazing how the Conservatives who were competitive over most of the City in the mid-1970s have declined so rapidly and then wiped out. The results seem to stop at 2003. |
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Post by Right Leaning on Oct 23, 2014 14:07:04 GMT
Yes I have not got them up to date, but those results are available on Andrew Teales site.
I will try to get them updated, but was concentrating on the older results.
Steve
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Nov 6, 2014 17:31:52 GMT
It is amazing how the Conservatives who were competitive over most of the City in the mid-1970s have declined so rapidly and then wiped out. The results seem to stop at 2003. Huge demographic changes is the main reason. It's completely different from when I was a child in the 1980's. There was huge amounts of immigration along with students pushing the middle class out of the Tories old strongholds. Not just demographic change but also generational change. Even so that goes nowhere near explaining the extent of the collapse in the Conservative vote, not just in Manchester but throughout Stockport and Tameside. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 23, 2014 18:53:30 GMT
It is amazing how the Conservatives who were competitive over most of the City in the mid-1970s have declined so rapidly and then wiped out. The results seem to stop at 2003. Huge demographic changes is the main reason. It's completely different from when I was a child in the 1980's. There was huge amounts of immigration along with students pushing the middle class out of the Tories old strongholds. Check the census statistics. Neither Didsbury ward has more than 10% students, both are more than 75% white British and both have over 50% in the first two NS-Sec categories. I don't think you can blame it upon a different electorate there. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,426
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Post by iain on Nov 23, 2014 19:29:33 GMT
Of the 12 Lib Dem gains from Labour in 2005:
1 was a special case (Brent East)
2 were regains after losing to Labour in '97
9 were held by the Tories under Thatcher
Might give a clue
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 15,774
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Post by john07 on Nov 24, 2014 1:09:58 GMT
Check the census statistics. Neither Didsbury ward has more than 10% students, both are more than 75% white British and both have over 50% in the first two NS-Sec categories. I don't think you can blame it upon a different electorate there. Yes I can, check on what were single houses and are now flats. Predominately starter flats to the hipster market of Manchester. Young professionals live there and a lot of public sector workers. The people that lived in Withington when my rich uncles lived in Fallowfield and Didsbury in the 80's are vastly different to the people that live there now. Back when my uncles lived there it was predominately smart large house single occupancy housing which was the final house they bought in the progression up the market. It's a lot different now. That may sound plausible as an explanation of demographic change, as if it was just an implication of movements of population. However where have the Tory voters moved to? They can't all have moved deeper into the suburbs although some undoubtedly have. We are not just talking about Withington and Didsbury, the same thing can be said about wards such as Chorlton, Whalley Range, Barlow Moor, Levenshulme, all of which were once solid Conservative territory. Move over the border into Stockport and you get the Heaton wards which have turned from rock solid Conservative to safeish Labour. In Stockport there was essentially a pincer movement with Labour taking Tory seats in the former County Borough area and the Liberals/Liv Dems doing likewise in the remainder. It wasn't too different in Manchester with Labour taking the more marginal seats directly while the Lib Dems effectively replaced the Conservatives in the more middle class seats. Subsequently Labour took all those wards from the Lib Dems in Manchester but not, of course, in Stockport. Similar changes have taken place in areas like Morningside and Merchiston in Edinburgh. This is not so much to do with people moving but with the traditional Tory vote out. The area is now filled with youg professionals working at places such as the Universities and the Hospitals rather than 'Morningside Ladies'. It is more to do with generational change. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Dec 11, 2014 22:53:13 GMT
A constant move of Tory voters to Trafford from Manchester probably kept the Conservatives there alive. The Tories in Trafford have a very working class base activist base compared to some places,and a lot in my experience were once in Moss Side, Whalley Range etc.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Dec 12, 2014 0:38:12 GMT
Trafford - the Wandsworth of the north.
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Post by manchesterman on Dec 21, 2014 15:50:08 GMT
The words "Trafford" and "flagship" are never separated by many words in election reports in recent years. They really have clung on to power against all odds in the last decade or so!
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Post by thirdchill on Dec 28, 2014 19:23:13 GMT
The Tories certainly did well in Trafford this year, but I don't think it's that great an achievement to hold on when you consider the demographics, especially when you consider that it's always been a simple red-blue contest with little LibDem or third party presence. Not that long ago there was a lib dem mini insurgency in some dark blue areas of Trafford that seem to have been contained, hopefully. Although that insurgency was largely confined two the two wards that each contain a part of Timperley. One ward they still win most years (Village), the other ward is now on a knife edge every year (Timperley). |
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