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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 15, 2014 13:40:10 GMT
Assuming the Falklands War still would've happened as it did it is hard to see the Conservatives not winning in 1983/4.
However would've have the SDP split still occurred in 1981? It instead might've happened during the Miners Strike (assuming that still happened!)
Could David Owen still have been a future Labour leader?
Had 6 Foot voting MPs voted for Healey then history would've have been different. How different though is hard to guess.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 15, 2014 17:36:08 GMT
Of course, such a scenario means Benn might well have ended up challenging Healey for the actual leadership - the infighting then would surely have been even more vicious.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 15, 2014 17:54:00 GMT
Of course, such a scenario means Benn might well have ended up challenging Healey for the actual leadership - the infighting then would surely have been even more vicious. Might? There is no doubt that Benn would have gone for it and the party would have been plunged into a real civil war. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2014 18:33:22 GMT
I don't believe we'd have lost so heavily in 1983 with Healey, although nothing was so clear at that time, prior to the SDP and the Falklands. The SDP was already on the horizon and several MPs who subsequently defected claim to have voted for Michael Foot.
It is quite depressing to recollect the calibre of the politicians of the time - Michael Foot was a remarkable parliamentarian and Denis Healey (still with us) was a remarkable intellect with one hell a back-story. You could say the same about Tony Benn. Depressing when compared to the minnows of today.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2014 18:52:48 GMT
I don't believe we'd have lost so heavily in 1983 with Healey, although nothing was so clear at that time, prior to the SDP and the Falklands. The SDP was already on the horizon and several MPs who subsequently defected claim to have voted for Michael Foot. It is quite depressing to recollect the calibre of the politicians of the time - Michael Foot was a remarkable parliamentarian and Denis Healey (still with us) was a remarkable intellect with one hell a back-story. You could say the same about Tony Benn. Depressing when compared to the minnows of today. True, although we're quite blessed to have avoided a lot of the events and circumstances that forged them. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2014 19:34:22 GMT
True.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 15, 2014 20:55:11 GMT
Maybe worth at this point recounting an anecdote that might be interesting to our Labour members. Some of you might be aware that the Oxford University Labour Club split during World War Two, into OULC and the Oxford Democratic Socialists. Some of you may be aware in turn that the OUDS split was led by Roy Jenkins and Tony Crosland.
Well, several years ago whilst I was doing my finals, I got a phone call from a friend of mine who had been OULC president (I always have had a lot of Labour friends), who told me that he and another friend had managed to find the archives hidden away in the Bodleian Annexe. So I went down there, and lo and behold, the juvenilia of Jenkins and Crosland, and mentions of the likes of Iris Murdoch and Denis Healey. It's there if you're ever in town and fancy a look, it's very interesting.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2014 21:17:44 GMT
Labour would have done alrightish in 1983, Tory majority about 90. Down to 20 in 1987. Henley quits after two defeats and Benn takes over.
Thatcher doesn't dare go for the poll tax due her tiny majority and stays on as leader until 1992. Labour win an small overall majority in that year.... Then Black Wednesday happens. The Labour Party is torn in two with the formation of the SDP and loses its majority. Fresh elections in 1993 yield a Con / SDP coalition. The Lib SDP merger never takes place.
Come 2014 and the Tories are lead by one Nigel Farage (Maastrict was never ratified)
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Post by Guest on Oct 16, 2014 11:06:28 GMT
What a dystopia!
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Post by Tangent on Oct 16, 2014 12:12:22 GMT
Of course, such a scenario means Benn might well have ended up challenging Healey for the actual leadership - the infighting then would surely have been even more vicious. Might? There is no doubt that Benn would have gone for it and the party would have been plunged into a real civil war. Indeed. The great war for the direction of the Labour party had reached such a point that it was obvious that a battle would have to be fought for the party's soul. It might made things even worse: Healey elected by the PLP, the unions calling the shots at Wembley, and then Benn challenging him for a party-wide mandate. But one of the major reasons the defectors to the SDP behaved as they did is that they had lost confidence in Healey's ability to fight the left. |
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Post by Tangent on Oct 16, 2014 12:23:15 GMT
Labour would have done alrightish in 1983, Tory majority about 90. Down to 20 in 1987. Henley quits after two defeats and Benn takes over. Thatcher doesn't dare go for the poll tax due her tiny majority and stays on as leader until 1992. Labour win an small overall majority in that year.... Then Black Wednesday happens. The Labour Party is torn in two with the formation of the SDP and loses its majority. Fresh elections in 1993 yield a Con / SDP coalition. The Lib SDP merger never takes place. Come 2014 and the Tories are lead by one Nigel Farage (Maastrict was never ratified) I have always thought that Black Wednesday could not have taken place under a newly-elected Labour government, for the simple reason that the markets would never have had the confidence in Labour that they did in the Conservatives. Labour would have had to choose realignment or devaluation as soon as they entered office - at worst, within a matter of hours. |
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john07
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Post by john07 on Oct 16, 2014 12:38:37 GMT
Labour would have done alrightish in 1983, Tory majority about 90. Down to 20 in 1987. Henley quits after two defeats and Benn takes over. Thatcher doesn't dare go for the poll tax due her tiny majority and stays on as leader until 1992. Labour win an small overall majority in that year.... Then Black Wednesday happens. The Labour Party is torn in two with the formation of the SDP and loses its majority. Fresh elections in 1993 yield a Con / SDP coalition. The Lib SDP merger never takes place. Come 2014 and the Tories are lead by one Nigel Farage (Maastrict was never ratified) I have always thought that Black Wednesday could not have taken place under a newly-elected Labour government, for the simple reason that the markets would never have had the confidence in Labour that they did in the Conservatives. Labour would have had to choose realignment or devaluation as soon as they entered office - at worst, within a matter of hours. Black Wednesday took place for one reason. The Government took Sterling into ERM at an unsustainably high exchange rate. Either stay out or allow the Pound to quietly float downwards for a few months prior to joining ERM. |
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 16, 2014 12:51:24 GMT
It has been posited that the goodwill the EU would have felt towards a new Labour government in 1992 might have enabled a relatively painless "realignment" of the £. The main danger here is that Labour people might have felt obliged to prove their "credibility" (or, if you prefer, machismo) by trying to keep the currency at the unrealistic Major level. Rather like Callaghan fought devaluation to the bitter end in 1967.....
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Oct 16, 2014 13:40:58 GMT
I don't believe we'd have lost so heavily in 1983 with Healey, although nothing was so clear at that time, prior to the SDP and the Falklands. The SDP was already on the horizon and several MPs who subsequently defected claim to have voted for Michael Foot. It is quite depressing to recollect the calibre of the politicians of the time - Michael Foot was a remarkable parliamentarian and Denis Healey (still with us) was a remarkable intellect with one hell a back-story. You could say the same about Tony Benn. Depressing when compared to the minnows of today. I've bemoaned this before. There is a serious lack of intellectual oomph in. Parliament today. Unfortunately MPs are too busy being social workers to properly think about anything. |
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Post by carlton43 on Oct 16, 2014 13:46:24 GMT
I don't believe we'd have lost so heavily in 1983 with Healey, although nothing was so clear at that time, prior to the SDP and the Falklands. The SDP was already on the horizon and several MPs who subsequently defected claim to have voted for Michael Foot. It is quite depressing to recollect the calibre of the politicians of the time - Michael Foot was a remarkable parliamentarian and Denis Healey (still with us) was a remarkable intellect with one hell a back-story. You could say the same about Tony Benn. Depressing when compared to the minnows of today. Agree every word. Good to have you back CL. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 16, 2014 14:37:47 GMT
Labour would have done alrightish in 1983, Tory majority about 90. Down to 20 in 1987. Henley quits after two defeats and Benn takes over. Thatcher doesn't dare go for the poll tax due her tiny majority and stays on as leader until 1992. Labour win an small overall majority in that year.... Then Black Wednesday happens. The Labour Party is torn in two with the formation of the SDP and loses its majority. Fresh elections in 1993 yield a Con / SDP coalition. The Lib SDP merger never takes place. Come 2014 and the Tories are lead by one Nigel Farage (Maastrict was never ratified) I'm not convinced Labour win in 1992 with Benn as leader. If they do, what would their stance on Europe have been anyway, given Benn's views on the subject and how would that impact on Black Wednesday happening or not. |
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Post by Tangent on Oct 16, 2014 14:44:51 GMT
I have always thought that Black Wednesday could not have taken place under a newly-elected Labour government, for the simple reason that the markets would never have had the confidence in Labour that they did in the Conservatives. Labour would have had to choose realignment or devaluation as soon as they entered office - at worst, within a matter of hours. Black Wednesday took place for one reason. The Government took Sterling into ERM at an unsustainably high exchange rate. Either stay out or allow the Pound to quietly float downwards for a few months prior to joining ERM. Or realign within the ERM. But no-one (and I mean among the pro-ERM forces in all parties) was appreciating the kind of distortion which German reunification would bring. Without that, there might have been the leeway to realign at some point, although the French were the big obstacles until 1993. But, in any case, no Labour government would have the luxury of quietly working for a realignment. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2014 15:46:06 GMT
I don't believe we'd have lost so heavily in 1983 with Healey, although nothing was so clear at that time, prior to the SDP and the Falklands. The SDP was already on the horizon and several MPs who subsequently defected claim to have voted for Michael Foot. It is quite depressing to recollect the calibre of the politicians of the time - Michael Foot was a remarkable parliamentarian and Denis Healey (still with us) was a remarkable intellect with one hell a back-story. You could say the same about Tony Benn. Depressing when compared to the minnows of today. Agree every word. Good to have you back CL. Thank you Carlton and everyone else. Too much going on in the wonderful world of psephology to stay away. |
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Post by Tangent on Oct 16, 2014 16:03:19 GMT
We particularly missed your take on Heywood & Middleton, CL.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2014 16:26:19 GMT
We particularly missed your take on Heywood & Middleton, CL. It was too close to home for me to be honest Tangent, with Jim being a dear friend. I have now posted my reflection on the Heywood and Middleton result; it is safe to say that, whilst I was surprised at how close it was at the end, I wasn't surprised that UKIP did well. |
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