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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 23, 2014 23:36:42 GMT
First SNP by-election gain since December 2011.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312 
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Post by maxque on Oct 23, 2014 23:37:25 GMT
North Ayrshire Argyll and Bute (2012; 2014by):
SNP: 40.9% (+6.1; +12.8)
Ind: 23.6% (-16.1; -2.3)
Lab: 19.9% (+19.9; -5.0)
Con: 15.6% (-0.7; -5.5)
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 24, 2014 6:56:04 GMT
Believe the Conservatives gained quite comfortably the Gloucestershire seat, something like 959 to 550 UKIP and 455 Independent althoughy others not known. No news yet on the Forest of Dean seat.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 24, 2014 7:53:22 GMT
So first evidence is that there's been a definite bump for the SNP post-referendum. We'll see what happens next week...
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 24, 2014 8:20:32 GMT
So first evidence is that there's been a definite bump for the SNP post-referendum. We'll see what happens next week... It'll be interesting if/when we get one where the Greens and/or SSP run, and see what the level of preference transfer to the SNP is like. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2014 8:27:00 GMT
Would expect Greens to contest Troup and Midlothian East at least, given they have already have a councillor on each of those authorities.
South Kintyre has a perennial socialist candidate in Deirdre Henderson, though she stood as an independent in 2012.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 24, 2014 8:28:23 GMT
So first evidence is that there's been a definite bump for the SNP post-referendum. We'll see what happens next week... It'll be interesting if/when we get one where the Greens and/or SSP run, and see what the level of preference transfer to the SNP is like. We're definitely putting up a candidate in Midlothian one on 27th Nov. Not sure about the Aberdeenshire one on the same day. It will be interesting to see what level of the SNP vote transfers to us as we sweep to victory  or maybe the other way round... |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2014 8:43:19 GMT
Gloucestershire, Mitcheldean
Con 959
UKIP 550
Ind 455
Lab 278
LD 150
Grn 106
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2014 8:56:14 GMT
Chichester, Rogate
Con 342
UKIP 138
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Post by marksenior on Oct 24, 2014 9:01:44 GMT
Durham Evenwood
Lab 546
Con 396
UKIP 309
Ind 108
Green 72
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Post by La Fontaine on Oct 24, 2014 9:03:13 GMT
Durham Evenwood
lab 546
con 396
Ukip 309
ind 108
green 72
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2014 9:06:43 GMT
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Post by marksenior on Oct 24, 2014 9:12:00 GMT
F/Dean Newnham Ind hold
Ind 321 Con 216 UKIP 102 Lab 100 Green 70 Lib Dem 25
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,906
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 24, 2014 9:16:53 GMT
Turnout was up compared to July by-election (which may just be not having it in the summer holidays) 2664 valid votes compared to 2415. Labour vote, numerically has stayed almost dead level 530 compared to 526. Conservative vote down by 30 votes, but SNP almost doubling 1090 from 595, although this must be taken against the context, IIRC, of selection difficulties at the last by-election which harmed their vote then.
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2014 9:22:21 GMT
Can I just personally object to the concept of an "Ind hold". Independents aren't a party, every independent candidate is essentially a separate party. In these cases, I personally call it a "New Independent gain".
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 24, 2014 9:23:24 GMT
What's interesting is that despite all the talk of Labour and Conservatives being close because they happened to be on the same side in the indyref, the Conservative transfers didn't show much evidence of it (183 to Independent, 91 to Labour and 12 to SNP). And in the same light, for all the talk of Labour and SNP as dire opponents, Labour voters could have prevented the SNP winning if they had made sure to transfer to the Independent. Instead when Labour was eliminated, 268 transferred to Independent and 97 to SNP with 256 non-transferable. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 24, 2014 9:24:13 GMT
Can I just personally object to the concept of an "Ind hold". Independents aren't a party, every independent candidate is essentially a separate party. In these cases, I personally call it a "New Independent gain". Depends on the area. In some areas the Independents are a party, either informally or formally. |
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 24, 2014 9:47:47 GMT
Can I just personally object to the concept of an "Ind hold". Independents aren't a party, every independent candidate is essentially a separate party. In these cases, I personally call it a "New Independent gain". Depends on the area. In some areas the Independents are a party, either informally or formally. This is true, but such "Independent groups" are silly, and I refuse to recognise their legitimacy.  |
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,312
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Post by maxque on Oct 24, 2014 9:51:26 GMT
Chichester:
Con: 71.2% (-19.9)
UKIP: 28.8% (+28.8)
Evenwood:
Lab: 38.2% (-7.8)
Con: 27.7% (-0.3)
UKIP: 21.6% (-4.4)
Ind: 7.5% (+7.5)
Grn: 5.0% (+5.0)
Forest of Dean:
Ind: 38.5% (-1.6)
Con: 25.9% (-4.9)
UKIP: 12.2% (+12.2)
Lab: 12.0% (-1.0)
Grn: 8.4% (-7.7)
LD: 3.0% (+3.0)
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 24, 2014 10:11:00 GMT
North Ayrshire (2012; 2014by): SNP: 40.9% (+6.1; +12.8) Ind: 23.6% (-16.1; -2.3) Lab: 19.9% (+19.9; -5.0) Con: 15.6% (-0.7; -5.5) Since when was Oban in Ayrshire?  |
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or maybe the other way round...
