French Senate Election

[Devil Wincarnate]

Somehow I missed the French senate election that took place at the weekend.  It looks like the UMP have achieved a small majority, and the FN have entered the senate for the first time, in Bouches-du-Rhone (i.e. Marseille) and Var (mainly around the FN stronghold of Frejus).  It looks as if Jean-Pierre Raffarin will emerge from the grave to become senate leader.  Very unusually, in the Allier department, a Communist-leaning senator lost to the UMP.  Bouches-du-Rhone has also re-elected the PS renegade (take that comment as you will) Jean-Noel Guerini.

I will endeavour to find more information.

[relique]

Well, dear Devil Wincarnate , let me, 6 years after, give us a bit more information.

The senate is the "high chamber" of the French Republic. It has some limited powers. It cannot censor a government, but it helps shape the law. The Assemblée Nationale however, after what we call "navette parlementaire" always has the final say.

The president of the senate is institutionnally more important than the president of the Assemblée Nationale. It is him (it never has been 'her' to this day) that replaces the Président de la République if he dies or resigns. It's been the case two times: when de Gaulle resigned in 1969, Poher became president until an election was held. Poher was also a fierce opponent of de Gaulle in the referendum on a reform of the senate that de Gaulle proposed. De Gaulle losing the referendum made him resign. Poher, winner of the referendum, became president and was candidate in the 1969 presidential election. It is Pompidou former PM of de Gaulle, however, who was elected against Poher in the second run. The first of many fights between gaullist and non gaullist right during the 5th Republic. (the communist candidate, Jacques Duclos, famously said of the second run match between Poher and Pompidou "c'est bonnet blanc et blanc bonnet")

Poher became a second time president when Pompidou died in 1974. The presidential election was won by Giscard d'Estaing, who was part of the non gaullist right, against Jacques Chaban Delmas, Pompidou's PM between 1969 and 1972.

It is worth noting that a president of the senate should have become president a third time, earlier than that. During the 4th Republic, the senate was called "Conseil de la République". The Président de la République was elected by the "Congrès", which was the addition of Assemblée Nationale and Conseil de la République. In 1953, to replace Vincent Auriol, the election was quite difficult. Due do the vote on the European Defense council, the left and the right were divided. Apparently there was an unwritten rule during the third and the fourth republic that if an election was unclear, the president of the Senate (or here the Conseil de la République) was designated.

But between 1947 and 1968, the president of the Conseil de la République (and then called again Senate during the 5th republic) was Gaston Monnerville, MP for Guyane in the 1930s, member of the government in 1937 and 1938, part of the resistance during the war, he was elected senator for Guyane in 1946 then for the Lot département in 1948 and until 1972. According to some historians (and himself) it is due to the colour of his skin that he wasn't chosen to be president in 1953.

He was a fierce defender of the senate, member of the Parti Radical which made and unmade governments during the third and the fourth republic, he was elected as president of the Conseil de la République by the right against a communist supported by the socialist. He later joined a center-left group in the senate.

The senate is partially renewed every three years. In the past, there were three "series" of départements, and therefore the term was 9 years. Since 2014, the senators are elected for only 6 years and the senate is renewed by half every three years.

The "grands électeurs" which vote for the senators are:

- the members of the Assemblée Nationale

- the regional councillors (which are elected in derpartmental lists, so they vote in their département of election)

- the departmental councillors

- some local (municipal) councillors: 1 in "communes" (villages/cities/every synonym possible) of less than 500 inhabitants; 3 between 500 and 1499 inhabitants; 5 between 1500 and 2499 inhabitants; 7 between 2500 and 3499; 15 between 3500 and 9999 inhabitants. They are elected by the municipal council. Between 9000 and 29999 inhabitants, all councillors are "grands électeurs" (which means between 29 and 35 councillors); if there are vacancies or if some council members are foreigners (citizens of another EU country who can vote and be elected at the local level but cannot vote in national election ie senate election), they can designate replacement grand électeurs. In cities above 30 000 inhabitants, there are additionnal delegates which are elected by the municipal council: one additionnal councillor for every 800 inhabitants above 30 000. All councillors are grands électeurs and the same rule apply for vacancies or foreign councillors

- incumbent senators as well

So for each département, there is not more than a few thousand electors. The election takes place at the "préfecture de département" (the préfet is the representative of the State in the département).

- If there are only 1 or 2 seats to fill, there can be two rounds. In the first round, every grand électeur has one or two votes (if there is one or two seats), and they can vote only once for each candidate. If a candidate gets more than 50% of the votes, he is deemed elected. If there is at least one seat left to fill, a second run is held and the candidates with the most votes are elected. It happens quite often that both a left-wing and a right-wing senators are elected, some "grands électeurs" chosing their senators based on personal or geographical relationships. 

In the past, this was also the case for départements with 3 seats, but this was modified (twice).

- If there are 3 or more seats to fill (there are 12 senators of Paris and 11 in the Nord, although the Nord is more populated and has more MPs - 21 against 18), the candidates are obligated to form a list (with alterning men and women) of the number of seats to fill (+ replacers). There is only one round and the seats are filled with the highest average method.

In 2011, following disastrous local elections by the Sarkozy majority in 2008, 2010 and 2011, the senate was gained by the left (after a mig showing in the 2008 election as well).PS's  Jean-Pierre Bel was elected president of the senate with the votes of the different left-wing groups (communists, greens, radical(ie center)-left and of course socialists). In 2012, for the first time, the left had all the powers: senate, national assembly and president.

In 2014, there were local elections (at the municipal level only) which were a disaster for the left. So in september, six months after, the left lost the senate elections (Jean-Pierre Bel was not even candidate for reelection in his département).

In 2014 and 2020, the following départements are contested:

01 Ain

02 Aisne

03 Allier

04 Alpes de Haute-Provence

05 Hautes-Alpes

06 Alpes-Maritimes

07 Ardèche

08 Ardennes

09 Ariège

10 Aube

11 Aude

12 Aveyron

13 Bouches-du-Rhône

14 Calvados

15 Cantal

16 Charente

17 Charente-Maritime

18 Cher

19 Corrèze

2A Corse-du-Sud

2B Haute-Corse

21 Côte d'Or

22 Côtes d'Armor

23 Creuse

24 Dordogne

25 Doubs

26 Drôme

27 Eure

28 Eure-et-Loir

29 Finistère

30 Gard

31 Haute-Garonne

32 Gers

33 Gironde

34 Hérault

35 Ille-et-Vilaine

36 Indre

67 Bas-Rhin

68 Haut-Rhin

69 Rhône

70 Haute-Saône

71 Saône-et-Loire

72 Sarthe

73 Savoie

74 Haute-Savoie

76 Seine-Maritime

79 Deux-Sèvres

80 Somme

81 Tarn

82 Tarn-et-Garonne

83 Var

84 Vaucluse

85 Vendée

86 Vienne

87 Haute-Vienne

88 Vosges

89 Yonne

90 Territoire-de-Belfort

973 Guyane

977 Saint-Barthélémy

978 Saint-Martin

986 Wallis-et-Futuna

987 Polynésie française

French from overseas (the electors are the members of the Assemblée des français de l'étranger, and they vote every three year for 6 senators - so 12 in total).

In 2017, every other départements were contested. A group "En Marche" was created in june 2017, a few months before the elections. It included 25 senators including 23 socialists. There were a couple of new senators defecting from other groups after that.

21 faced reelection in 2017. 3 incumbents (Alain Richard, ex-PS, Val d'Oise, André Gattolin, ex Green, Hauts-de-Seine, Thani Mohamed Soilihi, ex-left, Mayotte) were reelected in 2017 while 18 weren't reelected (some of them weren't candidates or didn't have the LREM support). There were 8 newly elected senators in 2017 (Julien Bargeton, ex-PS, Paris, Arnaud de Belenet, ex-LR, Seine-et-Marne, Michel Dennemont, ex-PS and elected as head of the PS list but defected just after his reelection, La Réunion, Abdallah Hassani, no party, Mayotte, Martin Lévrier, right-wing, Yvelines, Frédéric Marchand, ex-PS, Nord, Didier Rambaud, ex-PS, Isère, Dominique Théophile, left-wing, Guadeloupe) with only 6 elected as LREM. Xavier Iacovelli, elected as PS in 2017 in Hauts-de-Seine, joined the group in 2019.

So in 2020, there are 10 members of the 23-member group which are concerned with the election.

- The president, François Patriat (ex-PS) in Côte d'Or is facing a very tough reelection against a right-wing list which gained 2 seats last time and a left-wing list which wants to take back his seat.

- Françoise Cartron (ex-PS, Gironde) who joined the group in 2018 will probably not be reelected (we don't know yet if she'll be candidate).

- Bernard Cazeau (ex-PS, Dordogne) will not be candidate again and there's no chance LREM gets a senator there.

- Agnès Constant, who replaced left-wing (and former PS -excluded- who joined LREM in 2017) Robert Navarro after he was convicted of abuse of trust (abus de confiance) and dispossessed of his civil rights in 2016, confirmed on appeal in 2018 and then in 2019 in the "cour de cassation", will be a LREM candidate but with little chance of getting a seat.

- Claude Haut (ex-PS, Vaucluse) decided not to contest the election but supports the LREM list. A United left list (which is quite rare in senate elections) was formed to get back the seat for the PS.

- Bernard Buis (ex-PS, Drôme) was third in the PS list and was elected during Didier Guillaume's stay in government and following his resignation after his leaving the government. He will head the LREM list but will have trouble getting one seat. The right seems poised to get one more seat and the PS keep one (out of the two elected in 2014).

- Georges Patient (ex-left-wing more or less PS, Guyane) is not sure to be candidate again but could be. He could be reelected.

- Antoine Karam (ex-left-wing, Guyane) will not be candidate again. It is unclear which group other potential candidates (left-wing or not) like the mayor of Cayenne will join after their possible election. 

- Noëlle Rauscent (ex right-wing, Yonne) was the replacement of Jean-Baptiste Lemoyne (ex-LR) who was nominated in the Edouard Philippe government (confirmed in the Castex government). He was at one time candidate in the Bayonne (Pyrénées Atlantiques) city in the 2020 municipal elections but since he was facing at the time another list where Didier Guillaume, senator from Drôme was candidate, both from the government, they were both asked no to be candidates. Noëlle Rauscent will be candidate again but was waiting for Lemoyne to say if he wanted to be "titulaire" and her "remplaçante". They probably won't be reelected in this two-seat constituency, the right-wing LR quite clearly wanting to take back this seat.

- Patricia Schillinger (ex-PS, Haut-Rhin) will head the LREM list, now with more centrist and right-wing candidates. She could be reelected, as the left lost a good deal of councillors here and are not very active anymore. Centrist list in 2014 got 1 seat with Jean-Marie Bockel (former PS, joined the Sarkozy government), so she might be able to tap into these votes (Bockel's replacement said she will not be candidate again).

- Finally, Richard Yung (ex-PS, foreign-based french) will not face reelection this year because... the foreign-based french senate election was postponed until 2021 due to Covid. Unsure if he will be candidate. LREM didn't get a seat in the 2017 senate election of the foreign-based french.

So out of the 10 senators facing elections, I think LREM might be able to keep between 0 to 3 (Patriat, Schillinger, Patient).

It will be difficult for them to gain seats elsewhere. Even in more populated département like Gironde (Bordeaux), Rhône (Lyon), Bouches-du-Rhône (Marseille), Seine-Maritime (Le Havre), Haute-Garonne (Toulouse), Hérault (Montpellier) their results at the municipal level were quite bad, and they should not get seats. In Seine-Maritime, the senator quite close to Edouard Philippe is still part of the LR group (and is the head of the united right-and-center list without LREM).

The 2014 results (with which seats flipped) (with the 2014 labels, so sometimes PS became LREM etc)

UDI-UC = center-right (the Union Centriste group in the senate regroups former UDF, UDI and Modem senators, despite their political fights)

UMP = right (former RPR, now LR)

DVD = right-wing without partisan affiliation

DVG = left-wing without partisan affiliation

RDSE = former the Parti Radical which was centrist and divided into to wings: the left wing PRG (former MRG) and the right-wing PRV (Parti Radical Valoisien), now part of the UDI. They still caucus together, however, nowadays, it is dominated by PRG as some PRV joined the UC group. This group is also used for DVG senators like Pierre Yves Collombat (Var), Jean-Pierre Chevènement (Territoire-de-Belfort) or former PS like Tropéano (Hérault) for instance.

01 Ain: 1 UDI-UC, 1 UMP, 1 PS (+1 UMP, -1 PS)
02 Aisne: 2 UMP, 1 PS (=)
03 Allier: 2 UMP (+1 UMP, -1 PCF)
04 Alpes de Haute-Provence: 1 PS (=)
05 Hautes-Alpes: 1 UMP (=)
06 Alpes-Maritimes: 4 UMP, 1 PS (=)
07 Ardèche: 2 UMP (+2 UMP, -2 PS)
08 Ardennes: 2 UMP (=)
09 Ariège: 1 PS (=)
10 Aube: 1 DVD, 1 UMP (=)
11 Aude: 2 PS (=)
12 Aveyron: 1 UDI-UC, 1 UMP (+1 UDI-UC, -1 PS)
13 Bouches-du-Rhône: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC, 1 FN, 1 PS, 3 DVG (+1 FN, -3 PS, -1 PCF)
14 Calvados: 1 UMP, 1 PS, 1 UDI-UC (-1 UMP, +1 PS)
15 Cantal: 1 UDI-UC, 1 RDSE (=)
16 Charente: 2 PS (=)
17 Charente-Maritime: 2 UMP, 1 PS (-1 UMP, +1 PS)
18 Cher: 2 UMP (=)
19 Corrèze: 2 UMP (+2 UMP, -2 PS)
2A Corse-du-Sud: 1 UMP (+1 UMP, -1 RDSE)
2B Haute-Corse: 1 RDSE (=)
21 Côte d'Or: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS, 1 UMP (+1 UDI-UC, -1 PS)
22 Côtes d'Armor: 1 PS, 1 UMP, 1 PCF (-1 PS, +1 UMP)
23 Creuse: 2 PS (=)
24 Dordogne: 2 PS (=)
25 Doubs: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS, 1 UMP (+1 UDI-UC, -1 PS)
26 Drôme: 2 PS, 1 UMP (-1 PS, +1 UMP)
27 Eure: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC (=)
28 Eure-et-Loir: 3 UMP (=)
29 Finistère: 1 UDI-UC, 2 PS, 1 UMP (+1 UDI-UC, -1 PS)
30 Gard: 2 UMP, 1 PS (+1 UMP, -1 PS)
31 Haute-Garonne: 1 RDSE, 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS, 2 UMP (-1 RDSE, +1 UDI-UC, -1 PS, +1 UMP)
32 Gers: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS (+1 PS, -1 RDSE)
33 Gironde: 3 PS, 3 UMP (=)
34 Hérault: 2 UMP, 1 DVG (Navarro), 1 PS (+1 DVG, -1 RDSE)
35 Ille-et-Vilaine: 2 PS, 1 UDI-UC, 1 UMP (-1 PS, +1 UDI-UC)
36 Indre: 2 UMP (=)

67 Bas-Rhin: 1 PS, 3 UMP, 1 UDI-UC (+1 UDI-UC, -1 UMP)
68 Haut-Rhin: 1 PS, 1 UDI-UC, 2 UMP (=)
69 Rhône: 4 UMP, 1 UDI-UC, 2 PS (+2 UMP, -1 UDI-UC, -1 PCF)
70 Haute-Saône: 2 UMP (+2 UMP, -2 PS)
71 Saône-et-Loire: 1 PS, 2 UMP (+1 PS, -1 UMP)
72 Sarthe: 1 PS, 2 UMP (+1 PS, -1 UMP)
73 Savoie: 2 UMP (+1 UMP, -1 PS)
74 Haute-Savoie: 1 UDI-UC, 2 UMP (=)

76 Seine-Maritime: 1 PCF, 2 PS, 1 UDI-UC, 2 UMP (=)

79 Deux-Sèvres: 2 UMP (=)
80 Somme: 1 UMP, 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS (-1 UDI-UC, +1 PS)
81 Tarn: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS (+1 UDI-UC, -1 PS)
82 Tarn-et-Garonne: 1 RDSE, 1 UMP (-1 RDSE, +1 UMP)
83 Var: 1 FN, 2 UMP, 1 RDSE  (+1 FN, -1 UMP)
84 Vaucluse: 2 UMP, 1 PS (=)
85 Vendée: 2 UMP, 1 UDI-UC (+1 UMP, -1 DVD)
86 Vienne: 2 UMP (=)
87 Haute-Vienne: 1 PS, 1 UDI-UC (-1 PS, +1 UDI-UC)
88 Vosges: 2 UMP (=)
89 Yonne: 2 UMP (=)
90 Territoire-de-Belfort 1 UMP (+1 UMP, -1 RDSE)

973 Guyane: 2 DVG-PS (=)
977 Saint-Barthélémy: 1 UMP (=)

978 Saint-Martin: 1 RDSE (-1 UMP, +1 RDSE)
986 Wallis-et-Futuna: 1 UMP (=)
987 Polynésie française: 2 UDI-UC (+2 UDI-UC, -1 DVG-PS, -1 DVD)

The Greens will try to get back a group that they lost in 2017. They hope to get 2 seats in a united left alliance list in Rhône (with the third going PS and a potential fourth to PCF), maybe getting Corse nationalists to join if they are elected, maybe one in Bouches-du-Rhône (but we don't know if there will be a united left list and wether they will have a good place; alone, they cannot get a seat), one in Haute-Garonne where they failed to win Toulouse but won smaller cities (they are alone in their list; PS should win one from RDSE and LR or UDI-UC losing one seat - the UDI-UC candidate is supported by LREM), 1 seat in Gironde where they won Bordeaux in an alliance with PS (PS should get back the seat that went LREM, LR losing one seat), but this time in a Green-only list (the parties decided they could win 4 seats while divided) and 1 seat in Bas-Rhin where they gained Strasbourg from PS (PS losing their seat).

They need 10 seats to form a group. Some current senators will probably join (Esther Benbassa, Greens, Paris, Joël Labbé, close to Greens, Morbihan, Guillaume Gontard, close to Greens and Grenoble's mayor, Isère, Ronand Dantec, former Greens, Loire-Atlantique, Sophie Taillée-Pollian, former PS now Générations (Hamon's party), Val-de-Marne). So they probably only need 5 or 6 seats. 3 should be quite sure (2 in Rhône, 1 in Gironde) and 2 are probable (Haute-Garonne and Bas-Rhin).

Overall, the left should do better than 2014, but will not frighten Gérard Larcher, LR, for his reelection (the senate president has a three-year term).

LREM will probably lose quite a lot of seats but will (barely) keep a group.

Communists should keep their group as well (they have 16 senators, will lose Pierre-Yves Collombat from Var (former RDSE) and probably Christine Prunaud from Côtes-d'Armor but keep their seat in Seine-Maritime. They might get back a seat in Rhône in the united left list, maybe one in Bouches-du-Rhône if they have a good place in a united left alliance list, one in Dordogne where they are in alliance with PS (one seat each). Two senators might leave them for the Greens' new group, Esther Benbassa and Guillaume Gontard (not sure for this one, though). So lose 4, maybe gain 2 or 3.

RDSE has 23 seats currently. They will probably lose quite a few seats. They have 10 seats not facing reelection but two of them (Ronan Dantec and Joël Labbé) might leave for the Green's group. They might keep seats in Cantal, Gers, Haute-Garonne, Gironde, Haute-Vienne, Saint-Martin and Tarn-et-Garonne.

Also, the only two RN senators were elected in this series of Départements. RN will most probably lose their two seats from Bouches-du-Rhône (they lost the sectorial mayorship in Marseille and all their political representation in the Aix-en-Provence council) and Var (they lost Le Luc and a bunch of councillors in most cities). They can also have good results in Vaucluse (but are always against far-right Ligue du sud and they 'cancel' each other) and Hérault (with Béziers and neighbouring cities) but it will probably not be enough to get a seat.

At the municipal election, they lost a lot of seats.

[relique]

The election will be on sunday. My personal predictions:

01 Ain: 1 RASNAG, 1 LR, 1 PS (=)
02 Aisne: 2 LR, 1 PS (=)
03 Allier: 1 PCF, 1 PS (-1 LR, -1 LIRT, +1 PCF, +1 PS)
04 Alpes de Haute-Provence: 1 RDSE (=)
05 Hautes-Alpes: 1 LR (=)
06 Alpes-Maritimes: 5 LR (-1 PS, +1 LR)
07 Ardèche: 2 LR (=)
08 Ardennes: 2 LR (=)
09 Ariège: 1 PS (=)
10 Aube: 1 UDI-UC, 1 LR (-1 RASNAG, +1 LR)
11 Aude: 2 PS (=)
12 Aveyron: 1 LR, 1 LIRT (-1 UDI-UC, +1 LR)
13 Bouches-du-Rhône: 3 LR, 1 UDI-UC, 1 PCF, 1 PS, 2 RDSE (-1 FN, -1 RDSE, +1 PCF, +1 UDI-UC)
14 Calvados: 1 LR, 1 PS, 1 UDI-UC (=)
15 Cantal: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS (-1 RDSE, +1 PS)
16 Charente: 2 PS (=)
17 Charente-Maritime: 2 LR, 1 PS (may seat with RDSE or LREM) (=)
18 Cher: 2 LR (=)
19 Corrèze: 1 LR, 1 LIRT (=)
2A Corse-du-Sud: 1 LR (=)
2B Haute-Corse: 1 LR (-1 RDSE, +1 LR)
21 Côte d'Or: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS, 1 LR (-1 LREM, +1 PS)
22 Côtes d'Armor: 1 PS, 1 LR, 1 PCF (=)
23 Creuse: 1 PS, 1 RDSE (=)
24 Dordogne: 1 PS, 1 PCF (-1 LREM, +1 PCF)
25 Doubs: 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS, 1 LR (=)
26 Drôme: 1 PS, 2 LR (-1 LREM, +1 LR)
27 Eure: 1 LREM, 1LR, 1 UDI-UC (-1 LR, +1 LREM)
28 Eure-et-Loir: 2 LR, 1 RDSE (-1 LR, +1 RDSE)
29 Finistère: 3 PS, 1 LR (-1 UDI-UC, +1 PS)
30 Gard: 2 LR, 1 PS (-1 UDI-UC, +1 LR)
31 Haute-Garonne: 1 RDSE, 2 PS, 2 LR (-1 UDI-UC, +1 PS)
32 Gers: 1 RDSE, 1 PS (=)
33 Gironde: 3 PS, 1 EELV, 1 LR, 1 RDSE (-1 LREM, -1 UDI-UC, +1 PS, +1 EELV)
34 Hérault: 2 LR, 1 PS (-1 LREM, -1 RDSE, +2 PS)
35 Ille-et-Vilaine: 2 PS, 1 UDI-UC, 1 LR (=)
36 Indre: 2 LR (=)

67 Bas-Rhin: 4 LR, 1 UDI-UC (-1 PS, +1 LR)
68 Haut-Rhin: 1 LREM, 3 LR (-1 UDI-UC, +1 LR)
69 Rhône: 2 LR, 1 UDI-UC, 2 EELV, 1 PS, 1 PCF (-2 LR, -1 PS, +2 EELV, +1 PCF)
70 Haute-Saône: 2 LR (=)
71 Saône-et-Loire: 1 PS, 2 LR (=)
72 Sarthe: 2 PS, 1 LR (+1 PS, -1 LR)
73 Savoie: 2 LR (=)
74 Haute-Savoie: 1 UDI-UC, 2 LR (=)

76 Seine-Maritime: 1 PCF, 2 PS, 2 UDI-UC, 1 LR (=)

79 Deux-Sèvres: 2 LR (=)
80 Somme: 1 LR, 1 UDI-UC, 1 PS (-1 LIRT, +1 LR)
81 Tarn: 1 RDSE, 1 PS (-1 UDI-UC, +1 RDSE)
82 Tarn-et-Garonne: 1 RDSE, 1 PQ (-1 LR, +1 PS)
83 Var: 3 LR, 1 PS (-1 CRC, -1 RASNAG, +1 LR, +1 PS)
84 Vaucluse: 2 LR, 1 PS (-1 LREM, +1 PS)
85 Vendée: 2 LR, 1 UDI-UC (=)
86 Vienne: 2 LR (=)
87 Haute-Vienne: 2 PS (-1 RDSE, +1 PS)
88 Vosges: 2 LR (=)
89 Yonne: 1 UDI-UC, 1 LR (-1 LREM, +1 LR)
90 Territoire-de-Belfort 1 LR (=)

973 Guyane: 1 DVG-PS (might seat with LREM), 1 LREM (-1 LREM, +1 PS)
977 Saint-Barthélémy: 1 LR (=)
978 Saint-Martin: 1 LR (-1 RDSE, +1 LR)
986 Wallis-et-Futuna: 1 LIRT (=)

987 Polynésie française: 2 UDI-UC (=)

That would lead to:

RASNAG (non registered to any grouping, mostly right-wing or far-right): -3 (including 2 former FN seats)

LR: +6

LIRT (right-wing close to En Marche): -2

UDI-UC: -5

LREM: -8

RDSE: -5

PS: +10

CRC: +3

EELV: +4 (not enough to form a grouping; they need 5)

[relique]

Results:

32 départements (over 63) have known perfect stability (either all incumbents were reelected or senators from the same party replaced incumbents):

- Ain, Allier, Alpes-de-Haute-Provence, Hautes-Alpes, Ardèche, Ardennes, Ariège, Aube, Aude, Calvados, Charente-Maritime, Cher, Corrèze, Corse-du-Sud, Côte-d'Or, Côtes-d'Armor, Creuse, Drôme, Eure-et-Loir, Indre, Haute-Saône, Saône-et-Loire, Sarthe, Savoie, Haute-Savoie, Deux-Sèvres, Vendée, Vienne, Yonne, Territoire-de-Belfort, Saint-Barthélémy, Polynésie Française

So for these départements, there were and still are:

RASNAG: 2

LR: 39

LIRT: 3

UC: 8

LREM: 3

RDSE:  2

PS: 11

CRC: 1

11 Départements have known a tilt to the right:

Aisne (-1 PS, +1 LR)

Alpes-Maritimes (-1 PS, +1 LR)

Cantal (-1 RDSE, +1 LR)

Charente (-1 PS, +1 LR)

Doubs (-1 PS, +1 UC)

Finistère (-1 PS, +1 LREM)

Gers (-1 RDSE, +1 UC)

Seine-Maritime (-1 PS, +1 LR)

Tarn (-1 PS, +1 UC)

Tarn-et-Garonne (-1 RDSE, +1 UC)

Saint-Martin (-1 RDSE, +1 LR)

8 Départements have known a tilt to the left:

Dordogne (-1 LREM, +1 PCF)

Gard (-1 UC, +1 LR)

Gironde (-1 LREM, +1 EELV)

Hérault (-1 LR, -1 LREM, +1 PS, +1 RDSE)

Vaucluse (-1 LREM, +1 PS)

Haute-Vienne (-1 RDSE, +1 PS)

Guyane (-1 LREM, +1 PS)

Wallis-et-Futuna (-1 LIRT, +1 DVG)

5 have known realignment on the right:

Aveyron (-1 UC, +1 LR)

Eure (-1 LR, +1 LREM)

Haut-Rhin (-1 UC, +1 LIRT)

Somme (-1 LIRT, +1 LR)

Vosges (-1 LR, +1 UC)

In more urban départements, there have been more changes:

- Bouches-du-Rhône (13, Marseille): RN succeeds in keeping their seat at the general surprise because they lost their Marseille's sector; Guérini (former PS) lost two of his list seats to the left (resulting in 1 PCF, 1 PS and 1 EELV for the united left list). 

- Haute-Garonne (31, Toulouse): PS regained their second seat from RDSE's Françoise Laborde.

- Ille-et-Vilaine (35, Rennes): PS lost one of their two seats to EELV

- Bas-Rhin (67, Strasbourg): PS lost their seat to EELV (logically following EELV's conquest of Strasbourg)

- Rhône (69, Lyon): LR lost one seat, a UC seat transformed into LIRT, PS lost one seat. EELV gained two in the united left list (PS accepted only the third place and knew they would lose one; in fact, the left won a seat) following Lyon's conquest.

- Var (83, Toulon): RN lost their seat to LR while PS got back the seat of Pierre-Yves Collombat which switched from RDSE to the PCF grouping (he supported Mélenchon at the presidential election).

There are still a lot of uncertainty for some new senators group choice, so I had to chose myself for them to give you an idea of what happenned.

Overall, the changes:

RASNAG: -1

LR: +5

LIRT: =

UC: +1

LREM: -3

RDSE: -7

PS: -3

PCF: +1

EELV: +7

Since there will probably be 2 RDSE members, 2 CRC members and 1 PS member which will join the EELV grouping, it will be -9 for RDSE, -4 for PS and -1 for PCF.

For my predictions:

I predicted correctly 133 senators (for 168 seats). I was mostly biased against the right and the greens which is quite consistant with my political bias

[relique]

3 years later, the Senate elections come back. They will be held tomorrow in the Départements that did not see an election 3 years ago. So between number 37 (Indre-et-Loire) and 66 (Pyrénées Orientales) + all the Île-de-France départements (Paris, Seine-Saint-Denis, Hauts-de-Seine, Val-de-Marne, Val-d'Oise, Seine-et-Marne, Essonne and Yvelines) + part of the over-sees départements (Guadeloupe, Martinique, La Réunion, Mayotte, Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon and Nouvelle Calédonie) and half of the abroad-french senators.

I explained a bit who are the "grands électeurs" who will vote and how the senators are elected.

No major shift should be expected here. Greens might gain 2-5 senators. Communists might manage to even things out (tough, though), socialists as well.

I'll try to do a bit of a general appraisal of what might happen and why later today if the rugby doesn't hinder my ability to think and type.

[relique]

So, département by département:

(reminder:

RASNAG = senators without a group; often independents or people who 'lost the whip', it is also where RN senators are, as they don't have enough to form a group

RN = rassemblement national = marine le pen

Rec = reconquête = eric zemmour

LR = les républicains = historic right

UDI = union démocrate indépendant = center-right

PRV = parti radical valoisien = used to be borloo

Hor = horizon = edouard philippe, former PM to Macron

Ren = renaissance = macron

Modem = mouvement démocrate = bayrou

PRG = parti radical de gauche = former allied of PS, then macronists then reunited with PRV then anti-macronist and now ... I don't know anymore...

PS = parti socialiste = historic left

MDC = mouvement des citoyens = one of the political heirs of jean-pierre chevènement, they refused to go with him to support macron; they now support cazeneuve

EELV = europe écologie les verts = greens

PCF = parti communiste français  = communists

Ins = insoumis = mélenchon)

37, Indre-et-Loire (préfecture: Tours)

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 center-right.

Major changes in the 2020 municipal election: 

Tours (130,000 inhab) center-right => united-left (EELV)

Saint-Pierre-des-Corps (15,000) PCF => right-wing

Lists: RN, LR (with one incumbent), Hor-Ren (with the son of the right-wing incumbent at the head), united-left (PS-EELV-PCF), Insoumis.

Probability: 1 LR, 1 Hor, 1 PS

38, Isère

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 EELV, 1 PS, 1 Ren

Major changes:

Fontaine (22,000) PCF => Modem

Meylan (17,000) LR => PS

Saint-Egreve (16,000) right => EELV

Lists: Rec, RN, LR-UDI (2 inc.),right-wing, centrist, Ren (inc.), center-left, united left (EELV-PCF-PS with Green incumbent), Insoumis

Probability: LR-UDI: 2, Ren or center-left: 1, united left: 2 (EELV + PCF).

39, Jura

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 PRV

Major changes:

Lons-le-Saunier (17,000) LR => PS

Candidates (see upthread, when there are two seats, each voter has two votes): RN, right-wing, LR 1, LR 2, PRV (inc.), Hor, centrist, PS-PCF, Ins 1, Ins 2

Probability: 1-2 LR, 0-1 PRV. 

40, Landes

Incumbents: 2 PS

Dax (20,000) PS => right-wing

Candidates: RN, LR, Ren, PS 1 (inc.), PS 2 (inc.), EELV, PCF 1, PCF 2, Ins

Probability: 2 PS

41, Loir-et-Cher

Incumbents: 1 Modem, 1 UDI

Candidates: RN, LR-UDI, UDI-LR, Re, centrist-Re, centrist, PS, EELV-PCF

Probability: 1 LR, 1 UDI (but 1 centrist might be closing in and if LR, centrists and the left are still divided on the second round, one PS might get through, but it will be hard)

42,  Loire

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 PS, 1 PCF

Firminy (17,000) former PCF => LR

Rive-de-Gier (15,000) LR => PCF

Lists: RN, LR, right-wing (supported by Ren), PS, EELV, PCF, Ins

Probability:  2 LR, 0-1 right-wing, 0-1 PCF, 0-1 PS (last time PCF was ahead of PS)

43, Haute-Loire

Incumbents: 1 UDI, 1 LR

Candidates: RN, LR (inc.), UDI (inc.), Ins

Probability: 1 UDI, 1 LR

44, Loire-Atlantique

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 Hor, 2 PS, 1 former EELV (still allied)

Orvault (27,000) right => left

Bouguenais (20,000) PS => LR

Lists: RN, LR-UDI (inc.), Hor (inc.), former PS, united-left (headed by inc. former EELV, with PS, EELV and PCF), Ins

Probability:  1 LR, 1-2 Hor, 2-3 united left (so 1 former EELV, 1 PS and maybe 1 EELV), 0-1 former PS

45, Loiret

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 PS

Fleury-les-Aubrais (22,000) UDI => PS

Lists: RN, LR-UDI, Hor, PS-PCF, Ins-EELV

Probability: 1-2 LR-UDI, 0-1 Hor, 0-1 PS-PCF (PS)

46, Lot

Incumbents: 1 PS, 1 PRV

Candidates: LR, PRV-Re, Re, PRG, PS-EELV (inc), PS-EELV, former PS, PCF

Probability: 1-2 PS, 0-1 PRV-Re

47, Lot-et-Garonne

Incumbents: 1 UDI, 1 LR

Villeneuve-sur-Lot (23,000) PS => LR

Marmande (18,000) Hor => PS

Candidates: RN, LR (inc), UDI (inc), center-right, Re, PS, EELV, PCF, Ins 1, Ins 2

Probability: 1 UDI, 1 LR

48, Lozère

Incumbent: 1 PS (sits with RDSE grouping, as did the former senator she replaced in 2020)

Candidates: right wing, PS (inc), PCF-EELV, Ins

Probability: 1 PS or maybe right-wing if the others from the left maintain their candidacy in the second round

49, Maine-et-Loire

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 Hor, 1 PS

Lists: RN, LR-UDI (1 inc), right-wing, Hor (inc), PS, former-PS-EELV, Ins

Probability: 2-3 LR-UDI, 1-2 Hor, 0-1 former-PS-EELV, 0-1 PS

The left will probably pay their division

50, Manche

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 PS

Granville (12,000) right => left

Lists: RN, LR (2 inc.), right-wing, Hor-Ren, (former)Hor-Ren, PS-PCF, EELV, Ins

Probability: 1-2 LR, 0-1 Hor-Ren, 1 PS

51, Marne

Incumbents: 2 UDI, 1 LR

Lists: RN, LR-UDI, Hor, PS-PCF-EELV, Ins, former-EELV

Probability: 2-3 LR-UDI (1 right, 1 UDI, maybe 1 LR), 0-1 Hor,

RN might not be so far off

52, Haute-Marne

Incumbents: 2 LR

Candidates: RN, LR1 (inc), LR2, right-wing 1, right-wing 2, centrist, PRG, Ins1, Ins2

Probability: 2 LR

53, Mayenne

Incumbents: 1 UDI, 1 LR

Candidates: RN, LR (inc), UDI1 (inc), UDI2, PS, EELV, Ins.

Probability: 1-2 UDI, 0-1 LR (but probably both incumbents reelected)

54, Meurthe-et-Moselle

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 PRV, 1 PS

Nancy (105,000): PRV => PS

Lists: RN, right-wing, LR-PRV (2 inc), ecologists, PS-PCF (Inc), Ins

Probability: 2-3 LR-PRV (1 LR, 1 PRV, maybe 1 LR), 1-2 PS-PCF (1 PS, maybe 1 PCF)

55, Meuse

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 PRV

Candidates: RN, LR, PRV (inc), right-wing1, right-wing2, centrist, PS, Ins

Probability: who knows in this very rural part of the world. 2 right-wing senators anyway.

56, Morbihan

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 UDI, 1 former EELV

Lorient (57,000) PS => UDI

Lists: RN, right-wing, LR, center-right, PS-PCF, left-EELV, Ins

Probability: 1-2 LR, 1-2 center-right, 0-1 PS-PCF, 0-1 left-EELV.

57, Moselle

Incumbents: 1 RASNAG, 1 LR, 1 UDI, 1 center-right, 1 PS

Metz (116,000) PS => LR

Forbach (21,000) PS => LR

Lists: RN, LR-UDI (2 incumbents), right-wing1 (1 incumbent), right-wing2, PRV, center-right, Hor, left-wing, PS, RDG-PCF, 2 independents

Probability: with that much division, it is tough to predict. LR-UDI might keep two, but barely. RN might get 1. There will be at least 1 seat in the center-right, and PS might keep theirs although it will be hard.

58, Nièvre

Incumbents: 1 UDI, 1 PS

Varennes-Vauzelle (9,000) right => PCF

Candidates: RN, UDI-LR (inc), Re1, Re2, centrist-ecologist, left-wing, PS1 (inc), PS2, PCF, EELV1, EELV2, Ins1, Ins2, independent

Probability: 1 UDI-LR, 0-1 PS, 0-1 Re1 (an MP), but I'd say the most probable is status quo.

59, Nord

Incumbents: 2 LR, 2 UDI, 2 right-wing, 1 Re, 2 PS, 2 PCF

Faches-Thumesnil (17,000) UDI => Ins

Bailleul (14,000) center-right => center-left

Seclin (12,000) PCF => right-wing

Lists: Rec, RN, LR (2 inc), UDI (1 inc), right-wing1 (2 inc but one in last position), former UDI1 (supported by other UDI inc), former UDI2, right-wing2, right-wing3, Hor, Re,  former-PS (1 inc), PS (1 inc), PCF (2 inc), EELV, Ins

Probability: the left will be happy to keep four, there's no guarantee. 1 PS is guaranteed, I believe they'll get 2. 1 PCF is guaranteed, they might get two thanks to divisions everywhere. The former-PS incumbent might get 1 but I don't think so.

On the right, LR will be happy to keep 1, there will be at least 1 UDI (but which one ??), and probably 2 right-wing1. There will be a battle between Hor and Re for 1 seat. Then, there could be second seats or first seats for any other right-wing list...

60, Oise

Incumbents: 3 LR, 1 PS

Lists: RN, LR1 (inc), LR2 (inc), LR3 (inc), centrist, Re-Hor, PS-PCF-EELV, Ins

As there are 3 male incumbent LR senators, they couldn't be all elected in 1 list (they need to alternate male-female and could only be 1st, 3rd and 5th, wth four senators elected). It can prove risky with a united left list that could keep the PS seat and a united Re-Hor and a centrist list.

Probability: 1-3 LR, 0-1 PS, 0-1 centrist, 0-1 Re-Hor

61, Orne

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 UDI

Candidates: RN, LR (inc), UDI-Re (inc), Hor, PS, EELV, PCF, Ins

Probability: 1 LR, 1 UDI

62, Pas-de-Calais

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 UDI, 1 Modem, 1 Re (elected as PS), 1 MDC, 1 former PS, 1 PCF

Bruay-la-Buissière (21,000) left => RN

Lists: RN, LR-UDI (2 inc), Hor, Modem-Re (1 modem inc), PS-MDC (1 MDC inc), PCF-left (1 PCF and 1 former PS inc), EELV, Ins

Probability: 0-1 RN, 1-2 LR-UDI, 1-2 Modem-Re, 2 PS-MDC, 1-2 PCF-left

63, Puy-de-Dôme

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 center-left, 1 PS

Lists: RN, LR (inc), UDI, center-left-PRG (inc), PS-PCF-EELV, Ins

Probability: 0-1 LR, 1 UDI, 0-1 center-left, 0-1 PS-PCF-EELV

64, Pyrénées-Atlantiques

Incumbents: 1 LR, 1 Modem, 1 PS

Biarritz (25,000): Modem => LR

Lists: Rec, RN, LR (inc), Modem (inc), PS (inc), PCF, EELV, Ins, 1 independent

Probability: 1-2 LR, 1 Modem, 0-1 PS

65, Hautes-Pyrénées

Incumbents: 1 PRG, 1 PS

Candidates: RN, LR, Hor, centrist, PRG (inc), PS (inc), EELV, PCF1, PCF2, Ins

Probability: 1 PRG, 1 PS

66, Pyrénées-Orientales

Incumbents: 2 LR

Perpignan (120,000) LR => RN

Candidates: far-right, RN1, RN2, LR1 (inc), LR2, PS, EELV, PCF, LFI

Probability: 1-2 LR, 0-1 RN, 0-1 PS

75, Paris

Incumbents: 2 LR, 2 former LR, 1 Re, 1 former EELV, 2 former PS, 3 PS, 1 PCF

Lists: LR (1 inc), right-wing1 (1 LR inc), right-wing2, Re-Modem-Hor, PS-PCF-EELV (3 inc), Ins, 2 independents

Probability: the united left will probably get 7-8 seats (3 PS, 2-3 EELV, 1 former PS inc, 1 PCF),  0-1 Re, and the rest between the right-wing LR lists.

77, Seine-et-Marne

Incumbents: 3 LR, 1 UDI, 1 Hor, 1 PS

Villeparisis (26,000) LR => PS

Lists: RN, LR (3 inc), right-wing1, right-wing2, PRV, Hor-Re, PS-EELV-PCF, Ins

Probability: 3-4 LR, 1-2 PS-EELV-PCF (which would be 1 PS and 0-1 PCF), and then seats among the centrists and right-wing, probably 1 Hor-Re

78, Yvelines

Incumbents: 4 LR, 1 UDI, 1 Re

Houilles (32,000) right => Re

Le Chesnay-Rocquencourt (31,000) right => Modem

Lists: RN, right-wing, LR-UDI (5 inc. including current president of the Senate Gérard Larcher), center-right, Ren-Hor-Modem (inc), EELV-PS-PCF, Ins, 1 independent

Probability: 5-6 LR-UDI, 0-1 Re, 0-1 EELV

91, Essonne

Incumbents: 2 LR, 2 UDI, 1 Modem

Corbeil-Essonnes (51,000) LR => PCF

Savigny-sur-Orge (36,000) LR => EELV

Athis-Mons (34,000) LR => PS

Lists: RN, LR (1 inc), right-wing (1 LR inc), UDI (2 inc), Modem-Ren-Hor (inc), centrist, PS-PCF-EELV, Ins

Probability: 1-2 LR or former LR, 1-2 UDI, 0-1 Modem, 1-2 PS-PCF-EELV (1 PS + 0-1 PCF)

92, Hauts-de-Seine

Incumbents: 3 LR, 1 UDI, 2 Re (1 elected as PS in 2017, 1 elected as EELV in 2011, reelected as En Marche in 2017), 1 PCF

Colombes (85,000) LR => EELV

Châtillon (36,000) LR => PS

Lists: RN, LR (3 inc), former LR, UDI (inc), Re-Hor (1 inc), PCF-EELV-PS (1 inc), Ins, 1 independent

Probability: 2-3 LR, 0-1 former LR, 1 UDI, 1 Re-Hor, 1-2 PCF-EELV-PS (1 PCF, 0-1 EELV)

93, Seine-Saint-Denis

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 UDI, 1 PS, 2 PCF

Saint-Denis (112,000) PCF => PS

Aubervilliers (88,000) PCF => UDI

Bondy (54,000) PS => LR

Bobigny (54,000) UDI => PCF

Saint-Ouen-sur-Seine (50,000) UDI => PS

Noisy-le-Sec (44,000) UDI => PCF

Lists: Rec, RN, LR (1 inc), UDI (1 inc), PRV, PRG, PS-EELV, PCF (1 inc), Ins, 2 independents

Probability: 2 LR, 1 UDI, 2 PS, 1 PCF

94, Val-de-Marne

Incumbents: 2 LR, 1 UDI, 1 EELV, 2 PCF

Champigny-sur-Marne (77,000) PCF => LR

Villejuif (54,000) LR => PCF

Choisy-le-Roi (45,000) PCF => LR

Villeneuve-Saint-Georges (33,000) PCF => right

Lists: RN, LR-UDI (1 LR inc), former-UDI-Hor-Modem (1 UDI inc), PCF-PS (1 PCF inc, + 1 PS inc from Oise), former-PS-EELV, Ins, 2 independents

Probability: 2 LR-UDI, 1-2 formerUDI-Hor-Modem, 1-2 PCF-PS (1 PCF + 0-1 PS), 0-1 former-PS-EELV (0-1 former PS)

95, Val-d'Oise

Incumbents: 1 Rec (elected as former LR), 2 LR, 1 Re (elected in 2011 as PS, in 2017 as En marche), 1 PS

Lists: Rec (inc), RN, LR (2 inc), UDI-Hor, Re (inc), PS-PRG (Inc), PCF-Ins-EELV, left-wing 

Probability: 2-3 LR, 0-1 Rec, 0-1 UDI-Hor, 0-1 Re, 0-1 PS

[relique]

Before I even tried to finish this (I'll do it though) the first Big casualty of the day:

The only government minister candidate for the Senate, Sonia Backès, beaten in Nouvelle Calédonie by a former LR candidate and by (for the first time) an independentist !

She was quite a big deal in Nouvelle Calédonie with different positions she held over the years, and there have been weeks of negociations on the subject just now.

On the first round there were four big loyalists candidates (including two incumbents, the minister and this former LR) and she came third, former LR elected on the first round, an independentist coming second and hier third. The two incumbents withdrew from the second round and there was a possibility for loyalists to unite for Backès but, apparently, some of them were quite happy with sacrificing loyalists ideas to get rid of her.

I'll update this post with the results.

First, the complete results (mostly départements with 1 or 2 senators who were elected on the first round):

Sept 23, 2023 17:38:28 GMT relique said:

40, Landes

Incumbents: 2 PS

Dax (20,000) PS => right-wing

Candidates: RN, LR, Ren, PS 1 (inc.), PS 2 (inc.), EELV, PCF 1, PCF 2, Ins

Probability: 2 PS

First round:
PS incumbent Monique Lubin: 56% (+11) elected
PS incumbent Eric Kerrouche: 53% (+10) elected
Ren Lafenêtre: 25% (= compared to 2017 Modem, +14 compared to 2017 En Marche)
LR Vernier: 18% (-13)
PCF1 and 2 8% et 7% (+1, =)
RN: 7% (+6)
EELV: 2% (new)
Ins: 1% (new)

Sept 23, 2023 17:38:28 GMT relique said:

43, Haute-Loire

Incumbents: 1 UDI, 1 LR

Candidates: RN, LR (inc.), UDI (inc.), Ins

Probability: 1 UDI, 1 LR

UDI incumbent Cigolotti: 79% (+6)
LR incumbent Duplomb: 74% (+22)
Ins: 7% (-13 compared with 2017 PS)
RN: 6% (+3)
There was a En Marche candidate in 2017 with 25%

Sept 23, 2023 17:38:28 GMT relique said:

48, Lozère

Incumbent: 1 PS (sits with RDSE grouping, as did the former senator she replaced in 2020)

Candidates: right wing, PS (inc), PCF-EELV, Ins

Probability: 1 PS or maybe right-wing if the others from the left maintain their candidacy in the second round

PS incumbent Guylaine Pantel: 54% (+14 compared to former incumbent Alain Bertrand she replaced when he died, and +3 compared with his second round result) elected
right-wing Astruc: 38% (+18 compared to his own first-round result in 2017, -7 compared to the second round)
PCF: 6% (-2)
Ins: 2% (-2)

Sept 23, 2023 17:38:28 GMT relique said:

65, Hautes-Pyrénées

Incumbents: 1 PRG, 1 PS

Candidates: RN, LR, Hor, centrist, PRG (inc), PS (inc), EELV, PCF1, PCF2, Ins

Probability: 1 PRG, 1 PS

PRG incumbent Maryse Carrère: 69% (+14) elected
PS incumbent Viviane Artigalas: 62% (+19) elected
Hor Delcasso: 16% (+1, but there were 2 candidates last time)
LR 12% (+1)
RN: 6% +5

[relique]

Results in full:

Indre et Loire, 37:  1 LR, 1 PS, 1 Hor                                                                                                     (-1 LR, +1 PS)

Isère, 38: 3 LR, 1 EELV, 1 Re                                                                                                                    (-1 PS, +1 LR)

Jura, 39: 1 LR, 1 PRV (=)

Landes, 40: 2 PS (=)

Loir-et-Cher 41: 1 UDI, 1 Re                                                                                                                    (-1 Modem, +1 Re)

Loire, 42: 1 LR, 1 independent-right, 1 PS, 1 PCF                                                                                (-1 LR, +1 independent right)

Haute-Loire, 43: 1 LR, 1 UDI (=)

Loire-Atlantique, 44: 1 LR, 1 Hor, 1 independent-left, 1 EELV, 1 PS                                                 (-1 PS, +1 independent-left)

Loiret, 45: 2 LR, 1 PS (=)

Lot, 46: 1 PRV, 1 PS (=)

Lot-et-Garonne, 47: 1 LR, 1 PS                                                                                                                 (-1 UDI, +1 PS)

Lozère, 48: 1 PS (=)

Maine-et-Loire, 49: 1 LR, 2 Hor, 1 independent-left                                                                             (-1 LR, -1 PS, +1 Hor, +1 independent-left)

Manche, 50: 2 LR, 1 PS (=)

Marne, 51: 1 independent-right, 1 UDI, 1 Hor                                                                                     (-1 LR, -1 UDI, +1 independent-right, +1 Hor)

Haute-Marne, 52: 1 LR, 1 independent-right                                                                                         (-1 LR, +1 independent-right)

Mayenne, 53: 1 LR, 1 UDI (=)

Meurthe-et-Moselle, 54: 1 LR, 1 PRV, 1 PS, 1 PCF                                                                                 (-1 LR, +1 PCF)

Meuse, 55: 1 independent-right, 1 UDI                                                                                                 (-1 LR, +1 independent-right)

Morbihan, 56: 1 LR, 1 independent-right, 1 PS                                                                                     (-1 UDI, -1 EELV, +1 independent-right, +1 PS)

Moselle 57: 2 LR, 1 independent-right, 1 UDI, 1 PS                                                                             (-1 independent-right, +1 LR)

Nièvre 58: 1 UDI, 1 PS (=)

Nord 59: 1 RN, 1 LR, 2 independent-right, 2 UDI, 2 PS, 2 PCF                                                             (-1 LR, +1 RN)

Oise, 60: 3 LR, 1 PS (=)

Orne, 61: 1 UDI, 1 Hor                                                                                                                                 (-1 LR, +1 Hor)

Pas-de-Calais, 62: 1 RN, 1 LR, 1 UDI, 1 PS, 1 independent-left, 1 PCF                                                 (-1 Re, -1 MDC, +1 PS, +1 RN)

Puy-de-Dôme, 63:  1 LR, 1 PRG, 1 PS (=)

Pyrénées-Atlantiques, 64: 1 LR, 1 Modem, 1 PS (=)

Hautes-Pyrénées, 65: 1 PRG, 1 PS (=)

Pyrénées-Orientales, 66: 2 LR (=)

Paris, 75: 4 LR, 3 PS, 3 EELV, 1 independent-left, 1 PCF                                                                             (-1 Re, -1 independent-left, +2 EELV)

Seine-et-Marne, 77: 1 RN, 2 LR, 1 Hor, 1 PS, 1 PCF                                                                                 (-1 LR, -1 UDI, +1 RN, +1 PCF)

Yvelines, 78: 3 LR, 1 UDI, 1 Re, 1 EELV                                                                                                     (-1 LR, +1 EELV)

Essonne, 91: 2 LR, 2 UDI, 1 PS                                                                                                                     (-1 Modem, +1 PS)

Hauts-de-Seine, 92: 3 LR, 1 UDI, 1 Modem, 1 Re, 1 PCF                                                                         (-1 Re, +1 Modem)

Seine-Saint-Denis, 93: 1 LR, 1 UDI, 2 PS, 1 independent-left, 1 PCF                                                     (-1 LR, -1 PCF, +1 PS, +1 independent-left)

Val-de-Marne, 94: 2 LR, 1 UDI, 1 PS, 1 independent-left, 1 PCF                                                         (-1 EELV, -1 PCF, +1 PS, +1 independent-left)

Val-d'Oise, 95: 3 LR, 1 PS, 1 PCF                                                                                                                 (-1 Rec, -1 Re, +1 LR, +1 PCF)

Guadeloupe, 971: 2 macronist-left, 1 PS                                                                                                 (-1 PS, +1 macronist-left)

Martinique, 972: 1 PS, 1 independent-left                                                                                                 (-1 PS, +1 independent-left)

La Réunion, 974: 1 LR, 1 UDI, 1 PS, 1 independent-left                                                                         (-1 independent-right, -1 Re, +1 PS, +1 independent-left)

Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, 975: 1 independent-left                                                                                 (-1 independent-right, +1 independent-left)

Mayotte, 976: 2 macronist (=)

Nouvelle-Calédonie, 988: 1 LR, 1 independentist                                                                                     (-1 UDI, +1 independentist)

Français hors de France, 99: 1 LR, 2 independent-right, 1 Hor, 1 PS, 1 EELV                                         (-2 LR, -1 PS, +1 independent-right, +1 Hor, +1 EELV)

So, of course, the third round will be the affiliation of each senator to a group. There are still a lot of uncertainties among the "independent-left" and "independent-right".

But, broadly speaking, we have:

Rec: -1

RN: +3

LR: -11

independent-right: +3 (some might go to LR)

UDI: -5

Hor: +4

Re: -3 (including macronist from Mayotte and Guadeloupe)

Modem: -1

PS: +2

independent-left: +5 (including MDC)

EELV: +2

PCF: +1

independentist from Nouvelle-Californie: +1 (might go with PCF or EELV)

+11 for the left, 

= for presidential majority (but Edouard Philippe's movement is gaining while the others are losing, as he built a good network of local politicians while Macron only built a network of national politicians who, when they got back to their constituency, received rotten tomatoes)

-13 for the right and center-right

+2 for the far-right (with Rec losing one senator and RN gaining 3)