Rochester and Strood

[Devonian]

Nigel Farage gives his analysis of where and how UKIP won

[Pimpernal]

Well we did in the UKIP offices and several of the public mentioned it as possible... It was as possible as any of the other 10/0 scores I set...

[The Bishop]

Nov 21, 2014 14:41:49 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I've hardly seen any of the TV coverage of this by-election so have no view as to how wonderful Ms Khan was as a candidate. I don't know whether there might not be a bit of group think going on here about that. I do observe that she retained just under half of the vote won by Labour in their previous, less than stellar performance in this seat.

Well I know its only anecdotal, but I have just been talking to my old man about this by-election (yes, he supports Labour - but doesn't obsessively follow the minutiae of these things like we do) and he said "why didn't more people vote Labour, they had by FAR the best candidate?" He also described Tolhurst as "f***ing awful" and expressed total incredulity at the idea some Labour (and LibDem) people might have voted tactically for her.

Motwyw

[Pete Whitehead]

Well I saw enough of Tolhurst to agree she was awful but saw nothing really of Khan. I'm not disputing her wonderfulness just querying how it was manifested. I agree about the tactical voting - I really don't buy it, certainly not in terms of Labour voters. The kind of leftie Labour supporters who are most antagonistic towatrds UKIP are generally the kind of tribalists who viscerally hate the Tories and could not bring themselves to vote for them (much as I would find it almost impossible to vote for Labour even if faced with a potentially worse evil such as Caroline Lucas or George Galloway)

[The Bishop]

I suppose the point is you can't judge candidate quality just by the result. Even the LibDem here was better than some who have scored a bit higher than 0.9%.....

ISTR the Tory in S Shields last year getting some complimentary coverage, despite their mediocre result there.

[iain]

I can see middle class Lib Dem and Labour supporters tactically backing the Tories to keep out UKIP, but I can see more working class supporters of the two parties wanting to give Cameron a bloody nose, so I'd suggest there is reasonable tactical voting both ways.

[Sibboleth]

What's usually meant by the whole 'good candidate, pity about the circumstances' is that the candidate was articulate and enthusiastic.

[tomc]

Re tactical voting, I think there must have been a good chunk of the Tory vote that was from Labour and Lib Dem voters trying to keep UKIP out, otherwise where did UKIP's vote come from given that the Tories still hot 34%, assuming we took a lot of their 2010 vote they must have made it up from other parties. Which is supported by the drop in the Labour vote. Crucial for us is whether we can hold on the ex Tory vote and whether Labour voters will be prepared to vote Conservative in a GE.

[Devil Wincarnate]

You encounter plenty of enthusiastic and articulate candidates, but you aren't going to vote for them if they hold opposing views to you.

[timokane]

Nov 22, 2014 14:19:37 GMT Pimpernal said:

Nov 21, 2014 20:16:54 GMT timokane said:

The bookies make the Tories odds on to retake the seat at the GE. Why ? Simple maths. Turnout 51% and UKIP win by under 3000 . In the GE the turnout is going to be around 65%. The same third of people who never vote will not vote again. That leaves 14% of the other voters who will cast their vote. If they couldn't be persuaded to vote UKIP in the last few weeks of hectic campaigning they never will. The only way you can assume a UKIP hold is assume the absent voters will split evenly and that just is not going to happen. Mark Reckless political future finishes on May 7th 2015.

I might have expected this logic from a Tory but not from Labour.
In GE where the turnout will be 10-15% higher, the main beneficiary of the 'only vote at GEs' used to be Labour - but UKIP have a considerable chunk of that demographic now. I would have thought that anyone desperate to stop UKIP would have voted in this election - that number is not likely to be particularly greater next year than now. Remember - in 2010 Labour made loads of council seat gains whilst losing the GE - all because of the higher turnout. A great chunk of our vote is now also only likely to bother to vote in a GE and we could do better than previously assumed, simply because of that fact.

And your example of where UKIP have increased their share of the vote from by election to general election by enough to win the seat Is where exactly ? 

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2014 17:26:25 GMT tomc said:

Re tactical voting, I think there must have been a good chunk of the Tory vote that was from Labour and Lib Dem voters trying to keep UKIP out, otherwise where did UKIP's vote come from given that the Tories still hot 34%, assuming we took a lot of their 2010 vote they must have made it up from other parties. Which is supported by the drop in the Labour vote. Crucial for us is whether we can hold on the ex Tory vote and whether Labour voters will be prepared to vote Conservative in a GE.

Spot on.

[Andrew_S]

"Nick Robinson apologises for Britain First 'selfie'
Nick Robinson in series of robust exchanges with critics after being photographed in 'selfie' with Britain First candidate"

www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/11245011/Nick-Robinson-apologises-for-Britain-First-selfie.html

[carlton43]

Nov 22, 2014 19:20:08 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Nick Robinson apologises for Britain First 'selfie'
Nick Robinson in series of robust exchanges with critics after being photographed in 'selfie' with Britain First candidate"

www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/11245011/Nick-Robinson-apologises-for-Britain-First-selfie.html

Evil, evil man not to have had her vetted by security before the vile conduct of being photographed with a woman. How could he? Resignation is hardly good enough. I think the BBC is so discredited by this that it should be disbanded and all former members of it shunned for life.

[Pimpernal]

Nov 22, 2014 17:37:03 GMT timokane said:

Nov 22, 2014 14:19:37 GMT Pimpernal said:

I might have expected this logic from a Tory but not from Labour.
In GE where the turnout will be 10-15% higher, the main beneficiary of the 'only vote at GEs' used to be Labour - but UKIP have a considerable chunk of that demographic now. I would have thought that anyone desperate to stop UKIP would have voted in this election - that number is not likely to be particularly greater next year than now. Remember - in 2010 Labour made loads of council seat gains whilst losing the GE - all because of the higher turnout. A great chunk of our vote is now also only likely to bother to vote in a GE and we could do better than previously assumed, simply because of that fact.

And your example of where UKIP have increased their share of the vote from by election to general election by enough to win the seat Is where exactly ? 

it's from my own canvassing... the same people who used to say they'd vote Labour but only actually voted in the GE and not at other times.

[Richard Cromwell]

Nov 22, 2014 19:35:29 GMT carlton43 said:

Nov 22, 2014 19:20:08 GMT Andrew_S said:

"Nick Robinson apologises for Britain First 'selfie'
Nick Robinson in series of robust exchanges with critics after being photographed in 'selfie' with Britain First candidate"

www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/tvandradio/bbc/11245011/Nick-Robinson-apologises-for-Britain-First-selfie.html

Evil, evil man not to have had her vetted by security before the vile conduct of being photographed with a woman. How could he? Resignation is hardly good enough. I think the BBC is so discredited by this that it should be disbanded and all former members of it shunned for life.

Were his detractors expecting him to have spat in her face and torn off her jacket?

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2014 18:39:14 GMT joe said:

Nov 22, 2014 17:26:25 GMT tomc said:

Re tactical voting, I think there must have been a good chunk of the Tory vote that was from Labour and Lib Dem voters trying to keep UKIP out, otherwise where did UKIP's vote come from given that the Tories still hot 34%, assuming we took a lot of their 2010 vote they must have made it up from other parties. Which is supported by the drop in the Labour vote. Crucial for us is whether we can hold on the ex Tory vote and whether Labour voters will be prepared to vote Conservative in a GE.

Spot on.

I lean the other way, Lab and Lib voting UKIP for a laugh and the Tory vote holding up well. Will this be classed as a Tory hold when they regain the seat at the GE.

[Deleted]

Nov 22, 2014 20:24:08 GMT @jimboo said:

Nov 22, 2014 18:39:14 GMT joe said:

Spot on.

I lean the other way, Lab and Lib voting UKIP for a laugh and the Tory vote holding up well. Will this be classed as a Tory hold when they regain the seat at the GE.

It ought to be classed as a Con regain if that does happen.

[gwynthegriff]

Nov 22, 2014 20:16:37 GMT Richard Cromwell said:

Nov 22, 2014 19:35:29 GMT carlton43 said:

Evil, evil man not to have had her vetted by security before the vile conduct of being photographed with a woman. How could he? Resignation is hardly good enough. I think the BBC is so discredited by this that it should be disbanded and all former members of it shunned for life.

Were his detractors expecting him to have spat in her face and torn off her jacket?

No, but "who are you" might have been a reasonable question.

Or one might have expected the BBC's Chief Political Correspondent to recognise candidates ...............

[Crimson King]

the badge saying "candidate" might have been a bit of a give away as well

[Robert Waller]

May I remind that there may actually be some evidence as to what happened to the 2010 general election party vote?
This poll's top line figures weren't ridiculously far out in the end.

lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/Rochester-Strood-poll-Nov-14-Full-tables.pdf

Table 3 crossbreaks, for example, suggest that very many more Labour voters in 2010 said they would switch to UKIP than to the Conservatives. A higher proportion of Liberal Democrats did say they would switch to the Conservatives,.though from a lower base.

However I'd be careful about calling this 'tactical voting'. It is very easy for political enthusiasts here to assume that most people are made up of 'Labour voters'. 'Liberal Democrats' etc. Evidence from serious longitudinal studies (eg the BES) has shown that for years now we should have been considering most voters as 'floating', in the old phrase, rather than committed supporters of any party.