cefin
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Post by cefin on Nov 17, 2014 18:16:31 GMT
That's possibly the most hilarious thing I have ever read about in regards to political scaremongering.
If there's one question that I would imagine has never been asked as a precursor to buying a house it's " what party does the local MP belong too?"
The suggestion that the local MP's political affiliation has any effect on the value of house prices is a classic and if the report is true gives final confirmation of the beginning of the end for the tory party as a serious entity.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2014 18:35:31 GMT
If that quote is accurate, I can only assume the Agent is just having a laugh at the candidate's expense.
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Post by Robert Waller on Nov 17, 2014 22:06:12 GMT
Thank you for the tag, Joe; but I really don't have time at present for any analysis of my own, still less 'models'.
I do wonder how Goodwin and Ford came up with their 'demographics', though. How much, if any, weight did they give to region?
Even a cursory glance at the actual voting figures in the Euro-elections as above suggests a strong relationship between being in the eastern part of England and UKIP support in 2014.
The jury will be out until the May general election (as Thursday's is a byelection in very particular circumstances), and we'll see how well academics perform as well as parties!
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2014 22:15:52 GMT
The problem with extrapolating from 'Medway' as a Unitary is the wide divergence of the areas it covers, and as has sort of eeked out through this thread, we feel the strength of that Medway vote didn't come from the parts that make up R&S but more from other areas. Similarly in 'Swale' we noted that the balance between Sittingbourne and Sheppey boxes was considerably higher than in Faversham boxes. On that basis you could easily find that the vote in R&S was 5 or more % lower than the combined total suggests, and much higher elsewhere. The thing is ... It's not a diverse area really. Chatham, Aykesford, Strood etc. are much of a muchness. Outside of a few nice streets of historic housing and a few more nice streets Rochester isn't that different. We aren't talking the difference between Wimbledon and Mitcham and Morden are we.. I agree R and S is likely to be a little weaker than C and A for ukip, but surely not much. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 17, 2014 23:23:54 GMT
That is a brilliant picture of Kelly Tolhurst: she looks like a petulant teenager who has been told to turn up here when she'd rather be in her bedroom on Snapchat. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 17, 2014 23:58:10 GMT
That is a brilliant picture of Kelly Tolhurst: she looks like a petulant teenager who has been told to turn up here when she'd rather be in her bedroom on Snapchat. "Stuff you James.............Am I bovvered? Am I bovvvvered? Kelly. 43.75.....Rochester, Kent. Europe, the World, the Universe, the Galaxy..........Oh...chocolate! |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 18, 2014 1:37:25 GMT
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 18, 2014 12:20:02 GMT
Derivative of Frank Dobson's claim in Tower Hamlets in the mid-1990s, I think. "What does BNP stand for? Negative equity!" |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 18, 2014 12:34:50 GMT
The suggestion that the local MP's political affiliation has any effect on the value of house prices is a classic and if the report is true gives final confirmation of the beginning of the end for the tory party as a serious entity.
Not quite sure about that, but it certainly does belong alongside the usual Labour-will-introduce-a-secret-police, Tories-will-sell-the-NHS, Liberals-will-force-your-kids-to-appear-in-porn-films garbage that some politicians delight in bringing us. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 18, 2014 12:36:20 GMT
I was in the office yesterday and saw (briefly) Sky showing that candidates' debate. I couldn't believe how dire Kelly Tollhurst appeared to be, she acted and sounded like a Catherine Tate spoof. Especially when she turned to the Labour woman and said "Nah nah nah nah nah" rather than actually engage with what she had just said.
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Post by troubadour on Nov 18, 2014 15:26:34 GMT
Does anyone think that house prices will fall in Rochester and Strood if Kelly wins? Perhaps poor school performance is more likely to deflate house values. Best to be rid of both the sitting MP and the Council Cabinet member for Education.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 18, 2014 17:13:22 GMT
I was in the office yesterday and saw (briefly) Sky showing that candidates' debate. I couldn't believe how dire Kelly Tollhurst appeared to be, she acted and sounded like a Catherine Tate spoof. Especially when she turned to the Labour woman and said "Nah nah nah nah nah" rather than actually engage with what she had just said. As of one mind. See my post above. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 18, 2014 17:20:33 GMT
I was in the office yesterday and saw (briefly) Sky showing that candidates' debate. I couldn't believe how dire Kelly Tollhurst appeared to be, she acted and sounded like a Catherine Tate spoof. Especially when she turned to the Labour woman and said "Nah nah nah nah nah" rather than actually engage with what she had just said. As of one mind. See my post above. I hadn't seen your post when I made mine, but clearly she really does give off that vibe! I wouldn't choose to vote UKIP, but given the choice of candidates, someone clearly that poor a performer would not be of any use as a MP and Reckless has to be the better option. |
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Post by Devonian on Nov 18, 2014 19:08:13 GMT
As of one mind. See my post above. I hadn't seen your post when I made mine, but clearly she really does give off that vibe! I wouldn't choose to vote UKIP, but given the choice of candidates, someone clearly that poor a performer would not be of any use as a MP and Reckless has to be the better option. I think it possible that the performance of Tolhurst could cause a couple of last minute swings. The first obviously would be Conservative to UKIP. The second however might be Conservative to Labour. Earlier in the thread joe mentioned encountering Labour voters who planned to vote tactically for the Conservatives (a sort of 'vote for the evil Tory, its important' mindset). Over the course of the campaign, particularly with the debates on TV and Radio, they will have had a number of opportunies to see (and/or speak to others who have seen) Tolhurst's dire performance, the Tories' transparent attempt to (as they see)out-UKIP UKIP and also the rather good performance of the Labour candidate. They will also, crucially have had several opportunities to see or hear about headlines about the Tories giving up hopes of actually winning the seat. Those are all good reasons for that particular group of voters to switch back to Labour. I wonder if both UKIP and Labour might do better than polls predict. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 18, 2014 19:29:02 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2014 12:05:44 GMT
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 19, 2014 12:26:32 GMT
I don't like that at all.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2014 12:29:00 GMT
just shows how clueless the Labour Leadership is. One minute they say they won't follow UKIP or make promises they couldn't keep on immigration. The current Labour party under Ed Miliband have no vision and will say anything to get elected. |
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Post by keithn on Nov 19, 2014 13:25:43 GMT
"UKIP: EU migrants in UK legally would be able to stay" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694The main concern about this story is, not what Mark Reckless may or may not have said, but the ICM poll that says 25% of the population would agree with 'repatriating' (i.e. deporting) immigrants! (Presumably EU immigrants - although that is not clear). So even UKIP's policy is not going far enough with a quarter of the population. John Major talked about things being 'un-British' but maybe it is the British character that is changing and we are no longer the 'fair play, chaps' gentlemanly nation we think we are. |
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Richard Allen
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Post by Richard Allen on Nov 19, 2014 13:53:58 GMT
"UKIP: EU migrants in UK legally would be able to stay" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694The main concern about this story is, not what Mark Reckless may or may not have said, but the ICM poll that says 25% of the population would agree with 'repatriating' (i.e. deporting) immigrants! (Presumably EU immigrants - although that is not clear). So even UKIP's policy is not going far enough with a quarter of the population. John Major talked about things being 'un-British' but maybe it is the British character that is changing and we are no longer the 'fair play, chaps' gentlemanly nation we think we are. There has always been a sizeable portion of the population that would quite happily "send the lot back". |
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