French polls

[Devonian]

Surprising Presidential election poll from IFOP from yesterday. These indicate not only Marine Le Pen winning the first round but that in the event of the second round being Hollande - Le Pen she would win the second round 54% to 46%



www.lefigaro.fr/politique/2014/09/05/01002-20140905ARTFIG00167-sondage-marine-le-pen-en-tete-de-la-presidentielle-dans-tous-les-cas-de-figure.php

[Devonian]

Sept 7, 2014 5:40:09 GMT carlton43 said:

Hollande, the political elixir that reaches parts of the public that other elixirs cannot reach. Please, please, please, bend every effort to making it to a weak second Francois. One just knew at the outset that this ugly little shit was going to wreck everything and stiff the left. It has been a joy to watch as his train crash took place in wonderful slow motion. The intense joy of seeing the French cock everything up is very compulsive. I feel a Noel Coward moment coming on and a need to take a slash on Colombey les deux...!!!

According to another poll, this one from TNS sofres his approval rating has hit yet another record low. It was a record low of 18%, it now stands at 13%. His disapproval rating is 85%, in other words his net approval is an eye watering -72%

What has done further damage to his popularity is a kiss and tell book brought out by his former partner,  Valérie Trierweiler. What has caused people to react is not her revelations about his unfaithfulness (she started her affair with him when they were both married to other people so I'm not quite sure what she expected). What has shocked people in France is that this great champion of the working class does like poor people.

"He presented himself," writes Trierweiler, "as the man who doesn't like the rich. In reality, the president doesn't like the poor". More than any revelation about his philandering, this aspersion cast on his leftwing credentials could bring down the president. Because until this moment, Hollande's ideological copybook has been impeccable.

In France, money and the desire to make it are perceived as dirtier than sex. That's why no one blenched when Hollande said in 2006: "I don't like the rich. I admit it." Again, in a speech in 2012 that helped carry him into power: "I like people while others are fascinated by money."

However, in private, according to his ex, the president mocks the poor and, echoing a 16th-century French proverb, a man without money is like a wolf without teeth, calls them "les sans dents", the toothless.'

No one here cared much about his trysts with Gayet or his bad behaviour towards Trierweiller but people do care about this. Within minutes of the revelation about his "toothless" remark, social networks were ablaze. Two new Facebook groups emerged, the leftwing Nous les Sans Dents and the rightwing La Revolution des Sans Dents, the tagline of which is: "Better no teeth than no balls."

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/06/francois-hollande-valerie-trierweiler-new-book-controversy

I know that you might find it difficult to credit that a champagne socialist like Hollande might turn out to be a vicious snob who hates poor people but that is her accusation and people are believing it.

[The Bishop]

Is said poll in the OP that "surprising", Devonian? As you subsequently relate, Hollande is currently about as popular as Ebola.

[Devonian]

Sept 7, 2014 9:06:52 GMT The Bishop said:

Is said poll in the OP that "surprising", Devonian? As you subsequently relate, Hollande is currently about as popular as Ebola.

The bit I found surprising was the part which said Le Pen would win a second round vote in an election against Hollande. Remembering the 2002 second round run off and the large number of people who would vote for 'anyone but Le Pen' Marine Le Pen has obviously done well in cleaning up the FN's image to be polling ahead of anyone in the second round, even Hollande.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 7, 2014 9:30:24 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 7, 2014 9:06:52 GMT The Bishop said:

Is said poll in the OP that "surprising", Devonian? As you subsequently relate, Hollande is currently about as popular as Ebola.

The bit I found surprising was the part which said Le Pen would win a second round vote in an election against Hollande. Remembering the 2002 second round run off and the large number of people who would vote for 'anyone but Le Pen' Marine Le Pen has obviously done well in cleaning up the FN's image to be polling ahead of anyone in the second round, even Hollande.

MLP is a much more marketable prospect than her father of course, but even so, for polls to indicate she could win in the second round suggests that the FN have reached a tipping point where they are respectable without being part of the system.

J-MLP as president in 2002 would have been greeted with horror and terror in France and beyond- Marine does not give off that air.

On that note, I remember in 2002 seeing a list published by the FN about American products to avoid and their French replacements.  Very autarkic but that sort of stuff appears to have been jettisoned.

[The Bishop]

Sept 7, 2014 9:30:24 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 7, 2014 9:06:52 GMT The Bishop said:

Is said poll in the OP that "surprising", Devonian? As you subsequently relate, Hollande is currently about as popular as Ebola.

The bit I found surprising was the part which said Le Pen would win a second round vote in an election against Hollande. Remembering the 2002 second round run off and the large number of people who would vote for 'anyone but Le Pen' Marine Le Pen has obviously done well in cleaning up the FN's image to be polling ahead of anyone in the second round, even Hollande.

IMO it as at least as much a comment about the current utter toxicity of Flanby, as Marine "cleaning up" the FN (though I fully accept that is a significant factor)

[iainbhx]

Sept 7, 2014 9:30:24 GMT Devonian said:

Sept 7, 2014 9:06:52 GMT The Bishop said:

Is said poll in the OP that "surprising", Devonian? As you subsequently relate, Hollande is currently about as popular as Ebola.

The bit I found surprising was the part which said Le Pen would win a second round vote in an election against Hollande. Remembering the 2002 second round run off and the large number of people who would vote for 'anyone but Le Pen' Marine Le Pen has obviously done well in cleaning up the FN's image to be polling ahead of anyone in the second round, even Hollande.

She's not the old man, she seems much more reasonable and moderate and the French are pig sick of their politicians.

Should Hollande get through, it's going to be "Votez pour Flanby, il est important" as THE campaign theme.

However, I don't see him, or any PS figure getting through at the moment. It's going to be UMP vs FN.

[East Anglian Lefty]

It's not a great surprise that UMP voters are less interested in the concept of a cordon sanitaire than are PS voters.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Sept 7, 2014 11:18:11 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

It's not a great surprise that UMP voters are less interested in the concept of a cordon sanitaire than are PS voters.

Which is ironic, when you consider how much of the FN vote in France came across from PCF voters.

[Sibboleth]

You mean significantly less than is usually assumed? Mostly the old PCF voters just died...

[Devonian]

The French Département elections are to take place in march and I've just discovered this poll from Odoxa that covers (amongst other things) those elections (fieldwork 11-12 December)

How would you vote in the first round of the Département elections?

FN 28%
UMP 25%
PS 17%
FdG 9%
EELV 7%
UDI 7%
MoDem 5%
L’extrême gauche 2%

How would you vote in the second round if it was between PS, UMP & FN

UMP 39%
PS 32%
FN 29%

www.franceinter.fr/sites/default/files/2014/12/15/1021757/fichiers/barometre-politique-odoxa-lexpress-presse-regionale-france-inter-decembre-2014.pdf

[Devil Wincarnate]

Bit odd to offer a choice of three parties for a question about the second round.

Also surprising to see Melenchon's motley crew up to 9%.

[neilm]

Don't they have multiple parties in the second round in non presidential elections? I'm fairly sure I've seen three party second rounds before.

[Deleted]

Jan 21, 2015 12:58:15 GMT neilm said:

Don't they have multiple parties in the second round in non presidential elections? I'm fairly sure I've seen three party second rounds before.

yes, if a candidate gets over 12.5% of the registered voters in the first round they can enter the second round.

[Devonian]

New Ifop Presidential poll (fieldwork 21-23 Jan)
Like the previous Ifop poll Marine Le Pen is again shown as coming first in the first round although losing in the second. Hollande is up compared to last year's polls.

First round




Second round





www.marianne.net/choc-marine-le-pen-30%25

[Devonian]

New Presidential opinion poll from CSA, fieldwork 27-29 Jan

First Round




Second Round

Hollande 51% Le Pen 49%
Valls 60% Le Pen 40%
Sarkozy 57% Len Pen 43%
Juppe 62% Le Pen 38%


media.rtl.fr/internal/binary/2015/0129/7776381771_les-intentions-de-vote-pour-la-presidentielle-2017.pdf

[Devonian]

Ifop poll for next month's Departmental elections Fieldwork 11-13 February.

Who would you vote for in the first round of the departmental elections if they were held this Sunday

FN 29%
UMP/UDI 27%
PS 21%
FdG 7%
EELV 6%
MoDem 6%
Far Left 2%
Other 2%

www.ifop.com/media/poll/2940-1-study_file.pdf

[mrhell]

National Front doing poorly with those voters aged 50+ while UMP very strong with voters 65+.