Prediction - Scottish Independence Referendum

[Deleted]

Anything above 70% is not on my radar but maybe you'd like to plump for it....

[Deleted]

Sadly, I don't think it will even be close. No landslide that will not be reflected in the polling prior to the event.
65 - 35

[The Bishop]

A very bold prediction there.

The persistent reports that "yes" have a big advantage in the ground war do concern me a bit.

[Tony Otim]

Yes will have won the campaign but lost the actual vote - something like 55-45. Most of Better Together's loss in vote share down to self-inflicted wounds rather than anything achieved by the Yes campaign.

[thirdchill]

Somewhere between 60/40 and 65/35 ('no' winning).

[Robert Waller]

I think it'll be slightly more 'No' than whatever the final polls suggest; maybe 55-45 or 57-43.
I'm about to 'trade' or change my beginning of year Election Game prediction from under 40% yes to over 40%.

[iainbhx]

I have a nasty feeling that the enthusiasm gap will mean Yes squeaks it. Then we get to watch Salmond unravel.

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2014 12:48:36 GMT @trident said:

Sept 3, 2014 11:35:26 GMT iainbhx said:

I have a nasty feeling that the enthusiasm gap will mean Yes squeaks it. Then we get to watch Salmond unravel.

For all the talk about the enthusiasm gap, each Cybernat ranting on Twitter can only vote once.

The sections of the population that are more strongly NO - like more affluent voters and the elderly - are always more likely to turn out and vote.

I think Curtice estimated that the enthusiasm gap could be worth up to 2% for Yes, although most polls factor this in via likelihood to vote.

[Tony Otim]

The enthusiasm gap also reduces the higher the turnout is and there's a chance we could be looking at a very high turn out for this one.

[Deleted]

Sept 3, 2014 14:45:38 GMT Tony Otim said:

The enthusiasm gap also reduces the higher the turnout is and there's a chance we could be looking at a very high turn out for this one.

True, but it should also reduce the relative impact of those that normally vote (looking at you ABs and 60+)

[MeirionGwril]

Today's polls may make a few voting in this thread adjust their predictions??

[The Bishop]

Maybe not if one remembers the 1995 Quebec precedent - independence 7-8% ahead in the final polls, just losing on the day?

[Deleted]

Sept 7, 2014 9:01:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Maybe not if one remembers the 1995 Quebec precedent - independence 7-8% ahead in the final polls, just losing on the day?

Al Jazera had an article comparing the two referendums and the importance of getting out you vote on the day.

blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/europe/scotland-seeing-quebec-effect

[Richard Cromwell]

I think 'Yes' will take it but not by much.

[Deleted]

We're a clever bunch