maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
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Post by maxque on Sept 11, 2014 23:00:53 GMT
Collingham and Meering, in %
Con: 41.2% (-33.8%)
Ind: 35.5% (+35.5%)
UKIP: 15.8% (+15.8%)
Lab: 8.6% (-16.4%)
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 11, 2014 23:33:19 GMT
Quite an encouraging result for the LibDems - Oxford West and Abingdon is often cited as a possible seat they might win next time
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Post by thirdchill on Sept 12, 2014 7:28:08 GMT
The Carlisle/Cumbria results are encouraging for us, the Abingdon result considerably less so.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 12, 2014 7:44:14 GMT
The Carlisle/Cumbria results are encouraging for us, the Abingdon result considerably less so. I feel the same about UKIP except for Abingdon, but there it was all about a LD-Con fight and one can see that the UKIP and Lab parties were irrelevant on that night there. The inability to have made it far closer must be a worry for the Cons. The good solid UKIP figures elsewhere show that the core hold up to national polling levels except in London (but it is improving there) and in special situations. |
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Post by marksenior on Sept 12, 2014 8:06:18 GMT
Weston TC Wyvern ward result was Labour hold
Lab 208 UKIP 90 Con 68 LD 45
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Sept 12, 2014 8:19:52 GMT
The Ollerton result is:
Michael Pringle (Labour) 837
Mary Brown (Conservative) 323
Moritz Dawkins (UKIP) 280
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
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Post by maxque on Sept 12, 2014 8:30:56 GMT
Ollerton, in %:
Lab: 58.1% (+7.5%)
Con: 22.4% (-4.6%)
UKIP: 19.4% (+19.4%)
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 12, 2014 8:39:14 GMT
The Carlisle/Cumbria results are encouraging for us, the Abingdon result considerably less so. I feel the same about UKIP except for Abingdon, but there it was all about a LD-Con fight and one can see that the UKIP and Lab parties were irrelevant on that night there. The inability to have made it far closer must be a worry for the Cons. The good solid UKIP figures elsewhere show that the core hold up to national polling levels except in London (but it is improving there) and in special situations. The results in Carlisle were what I would have expected but I think the results in Nottinghamshire were poor, especially in Ollerton where there wasn't a strong Independent candidate to help explain it away |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 12, 2014 8:41:09 GMT
I agree with Pete's analysis. In it's own way I actually think the Newham result is a better performance by UKIP than the Newark ones.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 12, 2014 8:52:03 GMT
Carlisle, Castle - Labour hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 | since 2012 | since 2011 | since 2010 | | Labour | 364 | 38.4% | +1.1% | -18.4%
| -3.9% | +4.0% | | Conservative | 212 | 22.4% | +3.4% | +8.2% | from nowhere | -1.3% | | UKIP | 208 | 22.0% | -1.0% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 121 | 12.8% | +1.9% | -6.8% | -21.0% | -22.2% | | Green | 42 | 4.4% | -3.0% | -5.0% | -6.0% | -2.5% | | TUSAC |
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| -2.4% |
| -6.9% |
| | BNP |
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| -6.5% |
| | Total votes | 947 |
| 81% | 81% | 73% | 41% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~1% since May 2014 but otherwise not particularly meaningful Cumbria, Castle - Labour hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2013 | since 2012 B | since 2009 | since 2007 B | since 2005 | | Labour | 389 | 37.7% | -2.8% | -5.4% | +13.6% | +16.0% | -2.2% | | Conservative | 245 | 23.7% | +13.2% | +13.9% | +4.2% | +12.3% | +7.4% | | UKIP | 235 | 22.8% | +2.8% | +20.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrats | 112 | 10.9% | -12.3% | -28.2% | -23.5% | -53.1% | -33.0% | | Green | 51 | 4.9% | +1.0% | -0.8% | -6.7% | +2.1% | from nowhere | | TUSAC |
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| -1.8% |
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| | BNP |
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| -10.4% |
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| | Total votes | 1,032 |
| 91% | 109% | 84% | 101% | 48% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 8% since 2013 and ~9½% since 2012 by-election although not particularly meaningful otherwise Newark & Sherwood, Collingham & Meering - Conservative hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2013 B | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Conservative | 568 | 41.2% | -33.9% | -24.3% | -24.2% | -11.6% | -11.2% | | Independent | 476 | 34.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | UKIP | 218 | 15.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 118 | 8.6% | -16.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat |
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| -34.6% | -34.6% | -23.1% | -23.3% | | Independent |
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| -24.1% | -24.3% | | Total votes | 1,380 |
| 93% | 82% | 83% | 69% | 69% |
Swing not meaningful Newark & Sherwood, Ollerton - Labour hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Labour | 837 | 58.1% | +7.5% | +5.9% | +20.2% | +22.7% | | Conservative | 323 | 22.4% | -4.5% | -4.7% | -4.3% | -5.2% | | UKIP | 280 | 19.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Independent | |
| -22.4% | -20.6% | -35.4% | -37.0% | | Total votes | 1,440 |
| 69% | 76% | 75% | 79% |
Swing Conservative to Labour ~5½% since 2011 otherwise not particularly meaningful Newham, Becton - Labour hold | Party | 2014 B votes | 2014 B share | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | since 2010 "top" | since 2010 "average" | | Labour | 1,006 | 51.0% | -7.4% | -12.7% | +3.1% | -0.7% | | Conservative | 584 | 29.6% | -4.1% | +0.9% | +5.9% | +6.0% | | UKIP | 215 | 10.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Green | 70 | 3.5% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Liberal Democrat | 43 | 2.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -18.7% | -15.4% | | Christian | 33 | 1.7% | -6.2% | -5.2% | -5.7% | -5.3% | | TUSAC | 21 | 1.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Total votes | 1,972 |
| 64% | 71% | 40% | 45% |
Swing Labour to Conservative most realistically ~1½% since both May 2014 and 2010 Vale 0f White Horse, Abingdon Dunmore - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2014 votes | 2014 share | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | since 2009 B | since 2007 "top" | since 2007 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 745 | 52.4% | +14.7% | +16.5% | -0.3% | -0.2% | -0.1% | | Conservative | 501 | 35.2% | -6.1% | -6.3% | -4.6% | -6.0% | -6.0% | | UKIP | 90 | 6.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | | Labour | 87 | 6.1% | -4.7% | -5.5% | +3.3% | -0.2% | -0.3% | | Green | |
| -10.2% | -11.0% | -4.7% |
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| | Total votes | 1,423 |
| 62% | 66% | 94% | 75% | 76% |
Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~11% since 2011, ~2% since 2009 by-election and ~3% since 2007
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 12, 2014 8:53:16 GMT
I feel the same about UKIP except for Abingdon, but there it was all about a LD-Con fight and one can see that the UKIP and Lab parties were irrelevant on that night there. The inability to have made it far closer must be a worry for the Cons. The good solid UKIP figures elsewhere show that the core hold up to national polling levels except in London (but it is improving there) and in special situations. The results in Carlisle were what I would have expected but I think the results in Nottinghamshire were poor, especially in Ollerton where there wasn't a strong Independent candidate to help explain it away I disagree Pete, as one who lived just to the north for many years up to 1997. Notts is a difficult area for us as I posted on the Newark thread. They are slow to react and very slow to change. I thought Ollerton was a good breakthrough being 3/4 of the Cons and over 1/4 of the Labour votes in a very stolid very tribal former mining village close society. It is still totally white and without experience of the grooming issues elsewhere. At Collingham it was OK bearing in mind a first start and the focus there on what was perceived to be a strong threat from the Independent. These are bases for growth. Some will now vote UKIP having seen others do so for the first time. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Sept 12, 2014 9:01:42 GMT
I agree with Pete's analysis. In it's own way I actually think the Newham result is a better performance by UKIP than the Newark ones. Yes that was a good performance considering that only 24% of the population are of British ethnicity (though this is one of the higher figures in Newham) |
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Post by anthony on Sept 16, 2014 13:59:44 GMT
Newham Tonii WILSON, Labour, 1,006 Syed Hussain AHMED, Conservative, 584 David MEARS, UK Independence Party, 215 Jane Alison LITHGOW, Green Party, 70 David THORPE, Liberal Democrat, 43 Kayode SHEDOWO, Christian People’s Alliance, 33 Mark DUNNE, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 21 Total Number of votes: 1,983 Electorate total: 10,510 Turn out: 18.86% Number of valid votes: 1,972 Number of Rejected Votes: 11 My superb agenting skills led to this amazing result. |
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Post by Ben Walker on Sept 16, 2014 14:23:09 GMT
We had YI's (Young Independence, UKIP's Youth Wing) London lot do a lot of the ground work for the Newham seat. Credit to them. Us yoof wings, even in the party of the over 95s, can be useful!
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,901
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Post by Tony Otim on Sept 16, 2014 14:55:49 GMT
Newham Tonii WILSON, Labour, 1,006 Syed Hussain AHMED, Conservative, 584 David MEARS, UK Independence Party, 215 Jane Alison LITHGOW, Green Party, 70 David THORPE, Liberal Democrat, 43 Kayode SHEDOWO, Christian People’s Alliance, 33 Mark DUNNE, Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition, 21 Total Number of votes: 1,983 Electorate total: 10,510 Turn out: 18.86% Number of valid votes: 1,972 Number of Rejected Votes: 11 My superb agenting skills led to this amazing result. You beat both the CPA and TUSC - this is a mighty achievement that we olverlook at our peril  |
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