Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2014 13:58:37 GMT
Not long to go now until the election on the 22nd of September. 2011 result
National 47.3% and 59 MPs (+1) Labour 27.5% and 34 MPs (-9) Green 11% and 14 MPs (+5) NZ First 6.6% and 8 MPs (+8) The threshold for list representation is 5% or holding a constituency seat. Broadly it's similar to the additional member system, but with the ability to 'coat-tail' on a constituency seat to gain list seats even if below the threshold. 70 Electorates (constituencies) and a minimum of 50 seats from the national list.
Conservative 2.65% and 0 MPs Māori 1.4% and 3 MPs (-2) Mana 1.1% and 1 MP (+1) ACT 1.1% and 1 MP (-4) United Future 0.6% and 1 MP --- National have been miles ahead in the polls and skirting 50% and an outright majority. The current prediction from a NZ polling blog (curiablog) is pretty grim for Labour, even after the ongoing 'Dirty Politics' book scandal. The first poll largely conducted after the book came out is a NZ Herald Digipoll. A bit of a hit for National, but Labour don't seem to be the beneficiaries. The Greens can smile, they'll likely end up the most successful national Green party in percentage turns (deary me), but have no hope of governing.  National 50.0% (-4.9%) Labour 25.2% (-1.3%) Green 13.7% (+3.8%) NZ First 4.7% (+0.1%) Maori 0.7% (+0.2%) United Future 0.4% (+0.4%) ACT 0.6% (+0.6%) Mana/Internet 2.1% (-0.1%) Conservative 2.6% (+1.4%) |
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 22, 2014 14:08:13 GMT
Er, shouldn't the title be 2014?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2014 14:16:52 GMT
Er, shouldn't the title be 2014? I think you're seeing things  . (edited) |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Aug 22, 2014 17:08:00 GMT
Polling in New Zealand tends to overestimate National and the Greens and underestimate Labour and minor crank parties, fwiw.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 27, 2014 10:39:52 GMT
Key short of majority according to new poll and would need NZ First, but no sign of Labour capitalising on Dirty Politics. Conservative also up to just below the 5% threshold.. 3 News-Reid Research poll: August 19-25, 1000 people polled, margin of error 3.1 percent National 45 percent, down 2.5 percent Labour 26.4 percent, down 2.6 percent Greens 13.5 percent, up 0.5 percent NZ First 6.3 percent, up 1.7 percent Conservative 4.6 percent, up 2.1 percent Internet Mana 2.1 percent, up 0.1 percent Maori Party 0.7 percent, down 0.1 Read more: www.3news.co.nz/politics/decision14/latest-political-poll-big-blow-for-john-key#ixzz3BaUuHCNJ |
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Post by timrollpickering on Sept 4, 2014 16:53:38 GMT
Interesting - any local polls on how United Future and especially ACT are doing in their pocket boroughs given the problems their MPs have both had?
And any demands for Key to have a cup of tea wink & nod to help the Conservatives get an electorate?
One minor point is that there are now 71 constituencies. The rules require South Island to have at least 16 general seats but as the growth is all on North Island this is pushing the quota down, steadily increasing the overall number of constituencies and potentially making overhangs more likely. One of the review recommendations was to fix the ratio of constituency to list seats at 3:2 - i.e. 72:48 - but a lack of consensus meant no legislation was brought forward.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 6, 2014 9:17:09 GMT
No constituency polls for ACT or UF, that I can see. Still looks like no deal for the Conservatives, they're polling about 3%. Perhaps unfortunately for them National seems to be recovering slightly based on the most recent polls, the last three have all shown national at 50%+. More here: curiablog.wordpress.com/ |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 11, 2014 16:48:29 GMT
Morgan had Cunliffe winning the last debate. Colmar have the Nats on 46, that needs to drop another 3 really. Its gonna get squeaky.
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 11, 2014 17:34:41 GMT
Helen Clark did so well in NZ for Labour. The Greens have clearly taken many of their votes. Although National under its present leadership is centrist.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2014 15:43:02 GMT
No constituency polls for ACT or UF, that I can see. Still looks like no deal for the Conservatives, they're polling about 3%. Perhaps unfortunately for them National seems to be recovering slightly based on the most recent polls, the last three have all shown national at 50%+. More here: curiablog.wordpress.com/Harawira is in serious trouble. 1% lead only. Mana having a nightmare campaign as well. |
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Post by Richard Cromwell on Sept 16, 2014 22:10:16 GMT
Are the Democrats running? They appear to be, but I can't find much more information (plus, I'm not too sure how the system works in New Zealand). Also, fun fact: their Wikipedia page actually suggests that they are the owner-operator of the Guardian newspaper. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Sept 16, 2014 22:11:42 GMT
No constituency polls for ACT or UF, that I can see. Still looks like no deal for the Conservatives, they're polling about 3%. Perhaps unfortunately for them National seems to be recovering slightly based on the most recent polls, the last three have all shown national at 50%+. More here: curiablog.wordpress.com/Harawira is in serious trouble. 1% lead only. Mana having a nightmare campaign as well. Ouch. So much for Internet-Mana. Despite some scandals this election has really been quite dull, can there really be any doubt that National will be governing again? |
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Sept 17, 2014 14:07:51 GMT
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Post by markgoodair on Sept 20, 2014 7:58:02 GMT
They will end up with a couple of seats in parliament. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Sept 20, 2014 8:23:22 GMT
They will end up with a couple of seats in parliament. 2, right now (21% of votes counted). |
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groznik
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Post by groznik on Sept 20, 2014 8:30:06 GMT
Hi I'm a newbie living in NZ. Sorry, haven't quite worked out how to put up a link but electionresults.govt.nz has the running details as everything collated centrally. Think it this stage each booth counts and transmits to the Central HQ and the definitive count takes place later. Final results are from memory 4 October.
Thus far, looking quite good (I support National). Like most people in NZ, would be ecstatic to see Hone Harawira kicked out of Te Tai Tokerau. The Internet Mana alliance is an absolute farce and for Mr DotCon to have nothing to show for his $4m would be magnificent. Kelvin Davis is a man who is greatly respected and would serve his constituents well. On the other results coming in, very tight in some of the Auckland Nat-Lab marginals -Auckland Central should be safer for National than the count suggests but it might be the order the polling places declare. Astonished to see Nicky Wagner so far ahead in Christchurch Central as no one gave her a chance with a majority of 47 and dissatisfaction with the rebuild.
Some huge majorities being built up outside the cities by National, but thankfully not wasted as only the party vote matter as to the final seat allocation. Hence, one can play games in your electorate vote and support 'client parties' perfectly safety. Some of the differences between a party's electorate vote and party vote in the same constituency are vast.
The big booths in the Pacific Island dominated constituencies of South Auckland
(Mangere, Manurewa and Manukau East) provide Labour's backbone and declare late. Some parties are hopeful they will make inroads into this especially as they tend to be religious social conservatives and are upset with liberal policies such as gay marriage which was introduced by the Labour MP for Manurewa. Also, surprised to see two races in West Auckland are tightish - this is white skilled working class country and the Labour Party is seen as not representing these folk any more.
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Post by Devonian on Sept 20, 2014 8:43:15 GMT
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groznik
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Post by groznik on Sept 20, 2014 8:50:21 GMT
Thanks. Looks like the advanced votes were being counted and reported first so now it's the votes on the day.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 20, 2014 9:20:08 GMT
Its all over bar the shouting. I am depressed.
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neilm
Non-Aligned
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Post by neilm on Sept 20, 2014 11:44:41 GMT
Excellent news, I wonder if they can get public spending down even further.
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. (edited)
