maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306 
|
Post by maxque on Aug 4, 2014 10:03:00 GMT
Bolsover DC - South Normanton East (Labour died)
2011: Lab 647/597, Con 248/228, BNP 176
2007: Lab 527/521, BNP 423
2003: Lab 448/396, Con 218/190
Tracey Cannon (The Labour Party Candidate)
Robert Sainsbury (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Lambeth LB - Knight's Hill (Labour disqualified as she was a council employee)
2014: Lab 2182/2169/1911, Con 468/442/382, Green 457/388/365, LD 256/238/202, UKIP 249
2010: Lab 3039/2900/2768, LD 1480/1430/1415, Con 942/926/809, Green 420/378/357
2006: Lab 1358/1352/1349, LD 1273/1218/1116, Green 514, Con 435/426/417
2002: LD 1331/1263/1260, Lab 949/926/908, Con 258/250/245, Green 251, Socialist Alliance 113
Nelly Amos
Robert Hardware (Liberal Democrat)
Christopher Hocknell (The Green Party)
Robin Lambert (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Heidi Nicholson (Conservative Party Candidate)
Sonia Winifred (Labour Party Candidate)
|
|
maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,306
|
Post by maxque on Aug 4, 2014 10:43:43 GMT
Bolsover DC - South Normanton East (Labour died) 2011: Lab 647/597, Con 248/228, BNP 176 2007: Lab 527/521, BNP 423 2003: Lab 448/396, Con 218/190 Tracey Cannon (The Labour Party Candidate) Robert Sainsbury (The Conservative Party Candidate) Judging by the BNP votes and the probable demographics, that could have been a ward where UKIP would do well if they had stood a candidate. Would do well, but would fail to win. If we check the result of the 2013 Derbyshire elections in the Bolsover districts, we see than UKIP finished in a distant second place in each of the 6 divisions of the district. 21%, 25%, 27%, 27%, 27%, 24%. The issue for them is than the worst Labour result was 54% (which is two times UKIP vote), in South Normanton and Pinxton. At least, the election is contested. In Bolsover, there was 13 Labour councillors elected unopposed in 2003, 13 Labour and 1 Independent in 2007. No issue in 2011, but 3 two-seaters were only having 2 Labour candidates and 1 opposition candidate on the ballot, which isn't great either. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 4, 2014 12:11:11 GMT
South Normanton is an old mining village and one of the poorest parts of Bolsover; the East ward is slightly poorer compared with West. I suspect that Labour has limited or no canvass returns because there has only ever been token opposition in previous elections (although unlike Shirebrook, it's had contested elections). It's therefore a classic ward which is vulnerable if there is an insurgent party which can make an appeal over the existing party system - cf Shirebrook North West where Respect won a seat in 2007.
But that's not likely to happen with a Conservative Party candidate. Most people in South Normanton would rather poke their eyes out than vote for a Conservative Party candidate.
|
|
|
|
Post by David Ashforth on Aug 7, 2014 16:22:32 GMT
| Ward maps | Census maps | | BOLSOVER - South Normanton East | link
| link
| | LAMBETH - Knight's Hill | link
| link
|
|
|
|
|
Post by Pete Whitehead on Aug 7, 2014 16:36:46 GMT
South Normanton is an old mining village and one of the poorest parts of Bolsover; the East ward is slightly poorer compared with West. I suspect that Labour has limited or no canvass returns because there has only ever been token opposition in previous elections (although unlike Shirebrook, it's had contested elections). It's therefore a classic ward which is vulnerable if there is an insurgent party which can make an appeal over the existing party system - cf Shirebrook North West where Respect won a seat in 2007. But that's not likely to happen with a Conservative Party candidate. Most people in South Normanton would rather poke their eyes out than vote for a Conservative Party candidate.The Conservatives contested only two wards in Bolsover district in 2003 these being South Normanton East and South Normanton West. Although they were outpolled by two to one by Labour in the East ward they were within 50 votes of winning a seat in South Normanton West. IN 2007 they declined to contest any wards in Bolsover district. IN 2011 they returned to the fray and were again only around 50 votes away from having a councillor elected in South Normanton West. One can only idly speculate, but given that 2007 was in general a better year for the Tories and worse for Labour than either 2007 or 2011, it seems quite plausible that had the Tories contested South Normanton West that year they would have won representation on this council (Labour were actually unopposed in West then and had only BNP opposition in East). So while the description might hold good for the ward in question here, it might not so much for South Normanton as a whole |
|
myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,840
|
Post by myth11 on Aug 7, 2014 19:22:25 GMT
I have visited the area recently and there is a lot of new build with more been built . It has changed a lot since I 1st visited 20 years ago then i would have agreed with you 100% david but now its fast becoming a commuter area thanks to its road links and i think 2019 could be cons year in west ward if they can put 3 cans up.
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Aug 11, 2014 17:49:09 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Aug 11, 2014 20:24:41 GMT
South Normanton is an old mining village and one of the poorest parts of Bolsover; the East ward is slightly poorer compared with West. I suspect that Labour has limited or no canvass returns because there has only ever been token opposition in previous elections (although unlike Shirebrook, it's had contested elections). It's therefore a classic ward which is vulnerable if there is an insurgent party which can make an appeal over the existing party system - cf Shirebrook North West where Respect won a seat in 2007. But that's not likely to happen with a Conservative Party candidate. Most people in South Normanton would rather poke their eyes out than vote for a Conservative Party candidate.The Conservatives contested only two wards in Bolsover district in 2003 these being South Normanton East and South Normanton West. Although they were outpolled by two to one by Labour in the East ward they were within 50 votes of winning a seat in South Normanton West. IN 2007 they declined to contest any wards in Bolsover district. IN 2011 they returned to the fray and were again only around 50 votes away from having a councillor elected in South Normanton West. One can only idly speculate, but given that 2007 was in general a better year for the Tories and worse for Labour than either 2007 or 2011, it seems quite plausible that had the Tories contested South Normanton West that year they would have won representation on this council (Labour were actually unopposed in West then and had only BNP opposition in East). So while the description might hold good for the ward in question here, it might not so much for South Normanton as a whole Lovely are with some beautiful little up-market villages. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 14, 2014 16:37:32 GMT
I look at by-elections in places like South Normanton and wonder to myself- if hard-left types, and the likes of the Scargillites, don't stand here, then why do they even bother continuing?
|
|
|
|
Post by Richard Cromwell on Aug 14, 2014 17:33:18 GMT
I look at by-elections in places like South Normanton and wonder to myself- if hard-left types, and the likes of the Scargillites, don't stand here, then why do they even bother continuing? I'd hazard a guess (as a hard-left type), though I could be way out, that the "anyone but the Tories" factor could actually count against such a prospect; there are even communists who consistently vote Labour simply to avoid the election of a conservative. A foothold could only, in my opinion, be gained here if the left was already fairing better and a Scargillite/Hard-Left/Social-Democrat candidate could properly confront Labour's "It's a two horse race!" scaremongering. |
|
|
|
Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 14, 2014 21:26:14 GMT
I look at by-elections in places like South Normanton and wonder to myself- if hard-left types, and the likes of the Scargillites, don't stand here, then why do they even bother continuing? I'd hazard a guess (as a hard-left type), though I could be way out, that the "anyone but the Tories" factor could actually count against such a prospect; there are even communists who consistently vote Labour simply to avoid the election of a conservative. A foothold could only, in my opinion, be gained here if the left was already fairing better and a Scargillite/Hard-Left/Social-Democrat candidate could properly confront Labour's "It's a two horse race!" scaremongering. You're probably right there. Just seems bizarre there they're so thin on the ground when, let's face it, the Tory vote there is so negligible. |
|
myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,840
|
Post by myth11 on Aug 14, 2014 21:39:11 GMT
turnout is a problem for the hard left as the group you would expect to vote for them just cant be moved to a cast a vote
|
|
myth11
Non-Aligned
too busy at work!
Posts: 2,840
|
Post by myth11 on Aug 14, 2014 21:59:21 GMT
South Normanton east contains most of the old mining core where labour,s main opp is "sit on bum" as young people and increasingly middle aged people just don,t vote in these areas so labour spends more time on the new builds gaining votes there.
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Aug 14, 2014 22:02:26 GMT
I would expect that in areas with little opposition to Labour, many hard left wingers would join the Labour Party knowing that with seats being so safe, being considered less electable due to one's views would be less of a problem. Dennis Skinner still sitting as MP for Bolsover, surviving all the New Labour era is sort of a case in point.
There was a single Green Cllr in Bolsover, but he resigned and then there was no Green candidate in the resulting by-ekection. One might assume that non-Labour parties in the area are largely one man bands.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 14, 2014 22:08:58 GMT
I once saw the Bolsover District Council planning committee in action. The most interesting thing was that the nominally opposition Independent councillors were just as much part of the council establishment as the Labour councillors were. Only the Green Party guy put some effort in to providing a different view, and he had a select few issues to pursue.
It seems that the local Conservative Association shares most of its organisation with Chesterfield and North East Derbyshire - the latter has some wealthy areas and was near marginal in 2010. Yet Lee Rowley (who was a Westminster City Councillor for eight years) managed to get over 10,000 votes in Bolsover in the 2010 general election. I don't know how much effort he put in given he was also defending his council seat simultaneously. He's now stood down from Westminster and is standing in North East Derbyshire.
|
|
|
|
Post by AdminSTB on Aug 14, 2014 22:16:14 GMT
I imagine it would be somewhat like meetings of Motherwell Community Forum, in which all members were officially politically independent, but at meetings would occasionally involve the Chairman reminding people not to discuss Labour group issues when I was present.  |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 14, 2014 22:27:56 GMT
Sonia Winifred re-elected with 61% of the vote.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 14, 2014 22:31:09 GMT
LAMBETH Knight's Hill
Sonia Winifred (Labour Party Candidate) 1,265 (63.7%)
Heidi Nicholson (Conservative Party Candidate) 248 (12.5%)
Christopher Hocknell (The Green Party) 230 (11.6%)
Robin Lambert (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 99 (5.0%)
Robert Hardware (Liberal Democrat) 94 (4.7%)
Nelly Amos 51 (2.6%)
|
|
|
|
Post by Andrew_S on Aug 14, 2014 22:51:44 GMT
You'd have expected the LDs to hold off UKIP in a ward like Knight's Hill.
How would this ward have voted in the 2010 general election?
|
|
|
|
Post by Ben Walker on Aug 14, 2014 22:58:31 GMT
You'd have expected the LDs to hold off UKIP in a ward like Knight's Hill. How would this ward have voted in the 2010 general election? The Lib Dems actually held this seat in '06 with 45%. In '10 they lost it to Labour with 25% who got 52%. |
|
