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Post by lookingintoart on Jul 18, 2014 10:54:44 GMT
Interesting that the Conservative-run Herefordshire Council lost two of its seats they defended in the Market towns and are now a minority administration. The winning two parties (IOC & Greens) are actually in the same grouping on the Council and didn't stand against one another in the By-election.
Interestingly UKIP got 10% and 15% which is a low as it get in safe Lib-Dem seats. Not the rural gains they must have hoped for. Equally in Leominster South the Herefordshire Independents which Pendleton was a member of actually lost 14.1% of their vote which will make it much less likely that they will see gains from a Tory collapse in 2015.
This follows on the IOC gain of Pontrilas against the resigning Conservative Cabinet member which also saw off a challenge from the Herefordshire Independents.
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Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Jul 18, 2014 13:47:13 GMT
Having a look at Its Our County's website - they are resolutely focused on local issues, but I could quite happily vote for them
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jul 18, 2014 13:55:14 GMT
Having a look at Its Our County's website - they are resolutely focused on local issues, but I could quite happily vote for them The fact that the Green Party already had one councillor aligned with them (Felicity Norman) and has now got a second, is a fair indication that they are not exactly beyond the pale. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 18, 2014 15:43:11 GMT
Wouldn't be surprised if they had been taking some tips from the nearby Health Concern, either. Certainly, their recent electoral showings have been impressive.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 18, 2014 15:51:52 GMT
It helps that the county council is widely reviled.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 18, 2014 17:31:33 GMT
These results tend to reinforce a belief in the 'Richard Allen Effect' that suggests the public mind is already shaping up to the 2015 GE by slipping back to the practicalities of national power politics. UKIP seem unable to hold seats and are slipping out of the 'sound second places' to 'good thirds'. Labour and LibDems are very solid where they have a good organization and look very resilient. Conservatives have some work to do but show evidence of consolidation and core strengths. It is possible that LibDems will hold more Westminster seats than Opinion Polls would suggest and that the figures will narrow between UKIP and LibDems in those polls, and that Conservatives will gain the largest national vote.
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Post by marksenior on Jul 18, 2014 17:41:43 GMT
These results tend to reinforce a belief in the 'Richard Allen Effect' that suggests the public mind is already shaping up to the 2015 GE by slipping back to the practicalities of national power politics. UKIP seem unable to hold seats and are slipping out of the 'sound second places' to 'good thirds'. Labour and LibDems are very solid where they have a good organization and look very resilient. Conservatives have some work to do but show evidence of consolidation and core strengths. It is possible that LibDems will hold more Westminster seats than Opinion Polls would suggest and that the figures will narrow between UKIP and LibDems in those polls, and that Conservatives will gain the largest national vote. A sound and realistic commentary and forecast . |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jul 18, 2014 18:20:23 GMT
The Lib Dems will approximately double UKIPs national vote share.
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Post by carlton43 on Jul 18, 2014 18:24:37 GMT
The Lib Dems will approximately double UKIPs national vote share. That is unclear Joe. Do you mean that by GE election day the LibDems actual vote will then be twice that of UKIP? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Jul 18, 2014 18:45:51 GMT
Being partly Cornish weird ward names are, well eveyday. I am still waiting for Ventongimps and Cocks. Thus I like the clean simplicity of Airfield. "London Apprentice and Sticker" perhaps? Just south of St Austell. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 19, 2014 9:17:23 GMT
Interesting that the Conservative-run Herefordshire Council lost two of its seats they defended in the Market towns and are now a minority administration. The winning two parties (IOC & Greens) are actually in the same grouping on the Council and didn't stand against one another in the By-election. Interestingly UKIP got 10% and 15% which is a low as it get in safe Lib-Dem seats. Not the rural gains they must have hoped for. Equally in Leominster South the Herefordshire Independents which Pendleton was a member of actually lost 14.1% of their vote which will make it much less likely that they will see gains from a Tory collapse in 2015. This follows on the IOC gain of Pontrilas against the resigning Conservative Cabinet member which also saw off a challenge from the Herefordshire Independents. Have just noticed that the IOC winner in Ledbury was the unsuccessful Tory candidate (out of the 3) there in 2011. |
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Post by marksenior on Jul 19, 2014 10:20:35 GMT
Interesting that the Conservative-run Herefordshire Council lost two of its seats they defended in the Market towns and are now a minority administration. The winning two parties (IOC & Greens) are actually in the same grouping on the Council and didn't stand against one another in the By-election. Interestingly UKIP got 10% and 15% which is a low as it get in safe Lib-Dem seats. Not the rural gains they must have hoped for. Equally in Leominster South the Herefordshire Independents which Pendleton was a member of actually lost 14.1% of their vote which will make it much less likely that they will see gains from a Tory collapse in 2015. This follows on the IOC gain of Pontrilas against the resigning Conservative Cabinet member which also saw off a challenge from the Herefordshire Independents. Have just noticed that the IOC winner in Ledbury was the unsuccessful Tory candidate (out of the 3) there in 2011. He is also a former mayor of Ledbury . |
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Post by lookingintoart on Jul 19, 2014 17:15:46 GMT
Have just noticed that the IOC winner in Ledbury was the unsuccessful Tory candidate (out of the 3) there in 2011. He is also a former mayor of Ledbury . He had already broken from the Tories before becoming mayor. But as a localist party IOC contain people from a range of parties and none - encouraging people to vote for national parties in national elections and local ones for local elections. Herefordshire was badly run under the Liberals, in coalition and under the Conservatives - the Independents and the Labour Party councillors merely followed the direction of the controlling group. There is no real party policy difference as they come from the same retired white male predomnantly farming social group. IOC has equal balance of men and women and 75% are of working age - like Terry Widows (aged 33) who has a full time job. |
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Jul 19, 2014 18:54:35 GMT
Looking at a result map in Herefordshire, there seems to be an increasing urban/rural split, which is kind of wierd for a remote place.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 19, 2014 23:07:57 GMT
Looking at a result map in Herefordshire, there seems to be an increasing urban/rural split, which is kind of wierd for a remote place. Not really. Rural and urban communities are still going to be distinct from each other. They're both very different from urban areas elsewhere, but as said urban areas don't impact much on their day to day lives, this difference isn't likely to be salient in terms of determining political allegiance. |
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 19, 2014 23:34:20 GMT
Hereford is also a proper city, rather than an overgrown market town. There is resentment at a bunch of farmers running a place that they only visit once a week. But even in the actual market towns there are similar 'issues'.
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Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Jul 19, 2014 23:35:34 GMT
But as a localist party IOC contain people from a range of parties and none - encouraging people to vote for national parties in national elections and local ones for local elections. Herefordshire was badly run under the Liberals, in coalition and under the Conservatives - the Independents and the Labour Party councillors merely followed the direction of the controlling group. There is no real party policy difference as they come from the same retired white male predomnantly farming social group. IOC has equal balance of men and women and 75% are of working age - like Terry Widows (aged 33) who has a full time job. Yes, this is exactly correct. |
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