By-elections - 17th July 2014

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 17, 2014 22:45:33 GMT cogload said:

Two Tory losses in Herefordshire. One to the Greens (Leominster South) and one to IOC (Ledbury).

Means the Conservatives have now lost majority control of the council:

C 27
Herefordshire Independents 14
It's OUR County 13
Liberal Democrats 3
Green Party 1

The Green Party candidate in Leominster South was endorsed by It's OUR County and is likely to join their group.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

HEREFORDSHIRE Ledbury

Terry WIDDOWS (It's OUR County (Herefordshire)) 835
Allen CONWAY (Local Conservatives) 618
Paul STANFORD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 166

[andrea]

Leomister South
Green 384
Con 222
Ind 198
Ukip 111
Lab 99.

Oban North

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[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jul 17, 2014 23:02:50 GMT andrea said:

Leomister South
Green 384
Con 222
Ind 198
Ukip 111
Lab 99

I'm not sure about this - there seem to be conflicting reports about the Herefordshire Council byelection and the Leominster Town Council byelection in the same ward. Herefordshire Council's twitter feed gives the Green vote in the unitary council byelection as 726.

[andrea]

Jul 17, 2014 23:07:15 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Jul 17, 2014 23:02:50 GMT andrea said:

Leomister South
Green 384
Con 222
Ind 198
Ukip 111
Lab 99

I'm not sure about this - there seem to be conflicting reports about the Herefordshire Council byelection and the Leominster Town Council byelection in the same ward. Herefordshire Council's twitter feed gives the Green vote in the unitary council byelection as 726.

726 would be in line with the votes cast for the winners in previous cycles.

The Parish by-election is supposed to be with only 2 candidates though
www.herefordshire.gov.uk/media/7848663/nop_leominster_south_parish_ward.pdf

[Pete Whitehead]

Labour close to taking another Oban seat

[brianj]

Mabe, Perranarworthal & St Gluvias (Cornwall):

Con 406 (32.6%, +4.1)
LibDem 405 (32.5%, +9.5)
UKIP 271 (21.7%, -6.9)
Lab 107 (8.6%, -0.4)
MebKer 58 (4.7%, no previous)

Tories go from a three-vote loss to a one-vote win.

[Davıd Boothroyd]

ARGYLL AND BUTE Oban North and Lorn

Gerry FISHER (Scottish National Party (SNP)) 595
John MACGREGOR (Independent) 548
Kieron GREEN (Scottish Labour Party) 526
Andrew VENNARD (Scottish Conservative and Unionist) 445
Marri MALLOY (Independent) 301

Exclusion of Malloy; Fisher +40, MacGregor +66, Green +46, Vennard +48, non-transferrable 101.
Second round: Fisher 635, MacGregor 614, Green 572, Vennard 493.

Exclusion of Vennard; Fisher +23, Green +109, MacGregor +157, non-transferrable 204.
Third round MacGregor 771, Green 681, Fisher 658.

Exclusion of Fisher; Green +193, MacGregor +149, non-transferrable 316.
Fourth round: MacGregor 920, Green 874.

Exclusion of Green; MacGregor +373, non-transferrable 501.
Fifth round: MacGregor 1,293 elected.

[middleenglander]

Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorne - Independent MacGregor gain fom SNP on 4th round

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012	since 2011B	since 2007
SNP	595	24.6%	-6.1%	-19.5%	+2.3%
Independent MacGregor	548	22.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	526	21.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	445	18.4%	+9.3%	-2.2%	+9.9%
Independent Malloy	301	12.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independents			-54.9%	-24.6%	-54.6%
Liberal Democrats			-5.2%	-10.6%	-14.6%
Total votes	2,415		67%	99%	53%

Swing not meaningful

Cornwall, Mabe. Perranarworthal & St Gluvias - Conservative gain from UKIP

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2013	since 2009
Conservative	406	32.6%	+4.1%	+2.6%
Liberal Democrat	405	32.5%	+9.5%	+7.0%
UKIP	271	21.7%	-6.9%	from nowhere
Labour	107	8.6%	-0.4%	+3.0%
Mebyon Kernow	58	4.7%	from nowhere	-3.2%
Independents			-11.1%	-31.2%
Total votes	1,247		86%	70%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2.7% since 2013 and 2.2% since 2009 as Conservative share increases less than the Liberal Democrat

East Dorset, Colehill East - Liberal Democrat hold7.0%

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Liberal Democrat	742	59.3%	+8.7%	+12.5%	+4.7%	+5.8%
Conservative	326	26.0%	-5.6%	-8.0%	-2.3%	-2.6%
UKIP	184	14.7%	+6.4%	+5.8%	+2.4%	+1.9%
Labour			-9.5%	-10.2%	-4.8%	-5.1%
Total votes	1,252		59%	64%	73%	77%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~7% / 10% since 2011 and ~4% since 2007

Harrogate, Hookstone - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2014B votes	2014B share	since 2014	since 2011	since 2010
Liberal Democrat	886	51.7%	+9.0%	-2.7%	-13.3%
Conservative	551	32.1%	-1.8%	-1.3%	-2.8%
UKIP	206	12.0%	-4.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	71	4.1%	-3.0%	-8.0%	from nowhere
Total votes	1,714		96%	81%	52%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 5½% since May 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative ¾% since 2011 and 5% since 2010 

Herefordshire, Ledbury - 

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2010B	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Row 2 column 1	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	Row 2 column 5	Row 2 column 6	Row 2 column 7	Row 2 column 8
Row 3 column 1	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	Row 3 column 5	Row 3 column 6	Row 3 column 7	Row 3 column 8
Row 4 column 1	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	Row 4 column 5	Row 4 column 6	Row 4 column 7	Row 4 column 8
Liberal Democrat			-14.2%	-14.9%	-36.0%	-23.6%	-22.3%
Labour			-13.0%	-15.1%
Independent					-14.5%	-19.8%	-20.6%
Green						-16.8%	-17.4%
No Description						-6.2%	-6.4%
Total votes	Row 10 column 2		Row 10 column 4	Row 10 column 5	Row 10 column 6	Row 10 column 7	Row 10 column 8

Swing

Herefordshire, Leominster South - 

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2008B	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Row 2 column 1	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	Row 2 column 5	Row 2 column 6	Row 2 column 7	Row 2 column 8
Row 3 column 1	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	Row 3 column 5	Row 3 column 6	Row 3 column 7	Row 3 column 8
Row 4 column 1	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	Row 4 column 5	Row 4 column 6	Row 4 column 7	Row 4 column 8
Row 5 column 1	Row 5 column 2	Row 5 column 3	Row 5 column 4	Row 5 column 5	Row 5 column 6	Row 5 column 7	Row 5 column 8
Row 6 column 1	Row 6 column 2	Row 6 column 3	Row 6 column 4	Row 6 column 5	Row 6 column 6	Row 6 column 7	Row 6 column 8
Independents			-33.6%	-29.5%	-41.4%	-20.7%	-21.8%
Liberal Democrat					-10.5%	-14.2%	-15.0%
Total votes	Row 9 column 2		Row 9 column 4	Row 9 column 5	Row 9 column 6	Row 9 column 7	Row 9 column 8

Swing

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Airfield - 

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	2007 result
Row 2 column 1	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	*	Row 2 column 6
Row 3 column 1	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	*	Row 3 column 6
Row 4 column 1	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	*	Row 4 column 6
Row 5 column 1	Row 5 column 2	Row 5 column 3	Row 5 column 4	*	Row 5 column 6
No Description			-15.7%	*	Row 6 column 6
Total votes	Row 7 column 2		Row 7 column 4	*

* only 1 Conservative, 1 Green, 1 Labour & 1 No Description for 2 seats

Swing

Oxford, Cowley - Labour hold

Party	2014B votes	2014B share	since 2014	since 2012	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	512	39.4%	-1.1%	-12.3%	-6.5%	-8.8%
Green	269	20.7%	+4.2%	-2.1%	+6.7%	+8.2%
Artwell	257	19.8%	-3.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	152	11.7%	+0.3%	-4.5%	-6.7%	-5.7%
UKIP	72	5.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	39	3.0%	-5.7%	-6.5%	-18.8%	-12.6%
Independent						-6.3%
Total votes	1,301		80%	107%	47%	91%

Swing Labour to Green 2.6% since May 2014 and 5% since 2012

Redditch, Church Hill - 

Party	2014B votes	2014B share	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Row 2 column 1	Row 2 column 2	Row 2 column 3	Row 2 column 4	Row 2 column 5	Row 2 column 6	Row 2 column 7
Row 3 column 1	Row 3 column 2	Row 3 column 3	Row 3 column 4	Row 3 column 5	Row 3 column 6	Row 3 column 7
Row 4 column 1	Row 4 column 2	Row 4 column 3	Row 4 column 4	Row 4 column 5	Row 4 column 6	Row 4 column 7
Row 5 column 1	Row 5 column 2	Row 5 column 3	Row 5 column 4	Row 5 column 5	Row 5 column 6	Row 5 column 7
Row 6 column 1	Row 6 column 2	Row 6 column 3	Row 6 column 4	Row 6 column 5	Row 6 column 6	Row 6 column 7
Row 7 column 1	Row 7 column 2	Row 7 column 3	Row 7 column 4	Row 7 column 5	Row 7 column 6	Row 7 column 7
Row 8 column 1	Row 8 column 2	Row 8 column 3	Row 8 column 4	Row 8 column 5	Row 8 column 6	Row 8 column 7
Independent			-0.7%
Total votes	Row 10 column 2		Row 10 column 4	Row 10 column 5	Row 10 column 6	Row 10 column 7

Swing

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Labour have gained Church Hill ward in Redditch.

[myth11]

Jul 17, 2014 22:53:10 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

HEREFORDSHIRE Ledbury

Terry WIDDOWS (It's OUR County (Herefordshire)) 835
Allen CONWAY (Local Conservatives) 618
Paul STANFORD (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 166

anti big build  groups seem to gaining some ground both here and in Lincolnshire

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Not sure which Independent is which but the Redditch result is said to be:

Labour 600
Conservative 339
UKIP 332
Liberal Democrat 40
Green 32
Independent 13
Independent 9

[AdminSTB]

Jul 18, 2014 0:03:04 GMT Davıd Boothroyd said:

Not sure which Independent is which but the Redditch result is said to be:

Labour 600
Conservative 339
UKIP 332
Liberal Democrat 40
Green 32
Independent 13
Independent 9

Armstrong polled 13, Wiecek polled 9.

Also a minor correction, the Greens have 34, not 32.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Jul 17, 2014 23:09:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Labour close to taking another Oban seat

It's worth noting that the majority of the ward's electorate is Lorn rather than Oban. I would presume that Labour does better in the latter than the former (particularly with our candidate being from Oban this time), though this being rural/small-town Scotland who can tell how much that made any difference?

[AdminSTB]

Is the Airfield counting tonight?

[marksenior]

The Yeovil TC West ward figures were

LD 722 UKIP 398 Lab 122

2013 CC results from the same ward were

LD 779 UKIP 486 Con 386 Lab 190 Green 95

[maxque]

The South West Norfolk Conservatives tweeted than turnout in Airfield was 19.03% (669 votes).

Sorry for not putting a link towards the source, but I have no clue how to link a tweet.

[maxque]

From Twitter:

Cons 305 (45.7%, +2.4%)
UKIP 233 (34.9%, +34.9%)
Green 72 (10.8%, -10.6%)
Lab 57 (8.5%, -11.1%)

[middleenglander]

Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorne - Independent MacGregor gain fom SNP on 4th round

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2012	since 2011B	since 2007
SNP	595	24.6%	-6.1%	-19.5%	+2.3%
Independent MacGregor	548	22.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	526	21.8%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	445	18.4%	+9.3%	-2.2%	+9.9%
Independent Malloy	301	12.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independents			-54.9%	-24.6%	-54.6%
Liberal Democrats			-5.2%	-10.6%	-14.6%
Total votes	2,415		67%	99%	53%

Swing not meaningful

Cornwall, Mabe. Perranarworthal & St Gluvias - Conservative gain from UKIP

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2013	since 2009
Conservative	406	32.6%	+4.1%	+2.6%
Liberal Democrat	405	32.5%	+9.5%	+7.0%
UKIP	271	21.7%	-6.9%	from nowhere
Labour	107	8.6%	-0.4%	+3.0%
Mebyon Kernow	58	4.7%	from nowhere	-3.2%
Independents			-11.1%	-31.2%
Total votes	1,247		86%	70%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 2.7% since 2013 and 2.2% since 2009 as Conservative share increases less than the Liberal Democrat

East Dorset, Colehill East - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Liberal Democrat	741	59.2%	+8.7%	+12.5%	+4.7%	+5.8%
Conservative	326	26.1%	-5.6%	-8.0%	-2.3%	-2.6%
UKIP	184	14.7%	+6.4%	+5.8%	+2.4%	+1.9%
Labour			-9.5%	-10.2%	-4.8%	-5.1%
Total votes	1,251		59%	64%	73%	77%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat ~7% / 10% since 2011 and ~4% since 2007

Harrogate, Hookstone - Liberal Democrat hold

Party	2014B votes	2014B share	since 2014	since 2011	since 2010
Liberal Democrat	886	51.7%	+9.0%	-2.7%	-13.3%
Conservative	551	32.1%	-1.8%	-1.3%	-2.8%
UKIP	206	12.0%	-4.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	71	4.1%	-3.0%	-8.0%	from nowhere
Total votes	1,714		96%	81%	52%

Swing Conservative to Liberal Democrat 5½% since May 2014 but Liberal Democrat to Conservative ¾% since 2011 and 5% since 2010 

Herefordshire, Ledbury - Its Our County gain from Conservative

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2010B	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Its Our County	835	51.6%	+16.8%	+19.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	618	38.2%	+0.2%	+0.8%	-11.4%	+4.5%	+4.9%
UKIP	166	10.3%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat			-14.2%	-14.9%	-36.0%	-23.6%	-22.3%
Labour			-13.0%	-15.1%
Independent					-14.5%	-19.8%	-20.6%
Green						-16.8%	-17.4%
No Description						-6.2%	-6.4%
Total votes	1,619		43%	51%	33%	39%	41%

Swing Conservative to Its Our County ~9% since 2011
- although voting patterns in 2007 and 2011 distort statistics

Herefordshire, Leominster South - Green gain from Conservative

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2008B	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Green	384	37.9%	+24.2%	+21.1%	+21.8%	+16.9%	+15.8%
Conservative	222	21.9%	-18.2%	-18.3%	-10.0%	-22.2%	-19.2%
Independent	198	19.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
UKIP	111	10.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	99	9.8%	-2.8%	-3.7%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independents			-33.6%	-29.5%	-41.4%	-20.7%	-21.8%
Liberal Democrat					-10.5%	-14.2%	-15.0%
Total votes	1,014		52%	67%	82%	54%	57%

Swing Conservative to Green ~20% since 2011 and 2007 and ~6% since 2008 by-election
- although voting patterns in 2007 and 2011 distort statistics

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Airfield - Conservative gain from Green

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	2007 result
Conservative	305	45.7%	+2.4%	*	2 unopposed
UKIP	233	34.9%	from nowhere	*
Green	72	10.8%	-10.6%	*
Labour	57	8.5%	-11.1%	*
No Description			-15.7%	*
Total votes	667		37%	*

* only 1 Conservative, 1 Green, 1 Labour & 1 No Description for 2 seats

Swing not meaningful

Oxford, Cowley - Labour hold

Party	2014B votes	2014B share	since 2014	since 2012	since 2010	since 2008
Labour	512	39.4%	-1.1%	-12.3%	-6.5%	-8.8%
Green	269	20.7%	+4.2%	-2.1%	+6.7%	+8.2%
Artwell	257	19.8%	-3.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Conservative	152	11.7%	+0.3%	-4.5%	-6.7%	-5.7%
UKIP	72	5.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	39	3.0%	-5.7%	-6.5%	-18.8%	-12.6%
Independent						-6.3%
Total votes	1,301		80%	107%	47%	91%

Swing Labour to Green 2.6% since May 2014 and 5% since 2012

Redditch, Church Hill - Labour gain from UKIP

Party	2014B votes	2014B share	since 2014	since 2012*	since 2011	since 2010
Labour	600	43.9%	+11.7%	-9.8%	-3.3%	+8.2%
Comservative	339	24.8%	+2.2%	-3.9%	-11.7%	-11.5%
UKIP	332	24.3%	-10.5%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	40	2.9%	-1.2%	-3.7%	-6.8%	-19.0%
Green	34	2.5%	-1.7%	-2.7%	-4.1%	-0.1%
Independent A	13	1.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent W	9	0.7%	-0.7%	-2.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent			-0.7%	-3.2%		-3.4%
Total votes	1,367		71%	88%	65%	38%

* average share basis 

Swing UKIP to Labour 11% since May 2014
- Conservative to Labour 4¾% since 2014, 4¼% since 2011 and ~10% since 2010, when Conservative won the seat, but ~3% Labour to Conservative since 2012

[Merseymike]

Jul 18, 2014 0:28:48 GMT East Anglian Lefty said:

Jul 17, 2014 23:09:17 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Labour close to taking another Oban seat

It's worth noting that the majority of the ward's electorate is Lorn rather than Oban. I would presume that Labour does better in the latter than the former (particularly with our candidate being from Oban this time), though this being rural/small-town Scotland who can tell how much that made any difference?

Its a very good result for us all the same even though we didn't quite make it. The independent tradition of rural Scottish elections means that some of the independents elected are Labour-minded - indeed, Peter Peacock, who had been independent leader of I think the old Highland council, became a Labour MSP. We didn't used to contest many of these seats but we seem to be doing better than the other parties in this area, so I think that Argyll and Bute shouldn't be written off. A lot will depend on whether the candidate is good.