Re: County Council By-elections

[middleenglander]

May 2013 sees the County Council elections. These seats were last fought in 2009 when Labour failed to win any of the Shire Counties and won only 8% of the Divisions against 68% for the Conservatives and 18% for the Lib Dems.

I believe we have now seen the last County Council by-election before May 2013 as the "6 month" rule applies to all the known current vacancies.

There have been 17 County Council by-elections since the end of April, the results of which can be summarised by:

May 3rd 2012
1. Cumbria CC, Kendal Strickland and Fell - Lib Dem hold following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 97% compared to 2009; (67% to 2005 General Election day)
LD 54.9% (-17.3%), Lab 27.1% (+19.9%), Con 12.7% (-4.7%) UKIP 5.2% from nowhere, no BNP (3.2%)
* swing Lib Dem to Labour 18½% since 2009, but 18½% Labour to Lib Dem since 2005 when Labour won seat.
2. Hertfordshire CC, Meridon Tudor - Lib Dem hold following resignation of previous councillor
Relative turnout 86% compared to 2009: (48% to 2005)
LD 40.2% (-3.6%), Lab 25.8% (+13.0%), Con 17.4% (-10.3%), UKIP 11.5% from nowhere, Green 5.0% (-2.5%) no BNP (8.2%)
* swing Lib Dem to Labour 8¼% since 2009 but 2¾% Labour to Lib Dem since 2005
3. North Yorkshire CC, Central Richmondshire - Independent gain from Conservative following resignation of previous Councillor
Relative turnout 78% compared to 2009; (47% to 2005)
Ind 43.7% (+18.5%), Con 41.1% (-3.4%) Lab 15.2% (+10.3%), no Lib Dem (16.9%), no Green (8.6%)
* swing Conservative to Independent 11% since 2009 and 6½% since 2005
4. Suffolk CC, Bixley - Conservative hold following death of previous Councillor
Relative turnout 87% compared to 2009; (49% to 2005)
Con 43.8% (-11.3%), Lab 28.6% (+15.0%), LD 6.4% (-10.9%), Green 9.6% (-4.4%), UKIP 11.6% from nowhere
* swing Conservative to Labour 13% since 2009 and 3¾% since 2005
5. Surrey, Worplesdon - Conservative hold following resignation of previous Councillor elected in a 2010 by-election
Relative turnout 80% compared to 2009 (110% to 2010 and 54% to 2005)
Con 53.6% (+5.1%), LD 32.7% (-2.4%), Lab 13.7% (+9.5%), no UKIP (12.2%)
* Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 3¾% since 2009, 2¼% since 2010 and 10% since 2005 when Lib Dems nearly won the seat
May 24th 2012
6. Cumbria, Aspatria & Wharrels - Conservative hold following resignation of previous Councillor elected in a 2010 by-election
Relative turnout 80% compared to 2009 (156% to 2010 and 54% to 2005)
Con 34.7% (-22.1%), Lab 28.9% (+4.1%), LD 11.5% (-6.9%), Ind 21.7% & Green 3.2% both from nowhere
*Swing Conservative to Labour 13% since 2009 and 6¼% since 2005 (2010 was Con / Green straight fight)
June 14th 2012
7. Kent, Tunbridge Wells East - Conservative hold following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 75% compared to 2009 (46% to 2005)
Con 32.3% (-17.0%), LD 28.2% (-3.6%), UKIP 27.6% (+15.2%), Lab 8.9% (+2.1%), Green 3.0% from nowhere
* Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 6¾% since 2009 but ½% Lib Dem to Conservative since 2005
June 21st 2012
8. Hertfordshire, Hemel Hemstead Town - Conservative hold following resignation of previous councillor
Relative turnout 66% compared to 2009 (40% to 2005)
Con 47.8% (-3.0%), Lab 23.5% (+8.8%), LD 15.4% (-5.8%), Green 6.1% (-7.2%), UKIP 5.1% and Ind 2.1% both from nowhere
* Swing Conservative to Labour 6% since 2009 but 9½% Labour to Conservative since 2005
June 28th 2012
9. Essex, Chelmford North - Lib Dem hold following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 74% compared to 2009 (46% to 2005)
LD 42.1% (-4.6%), Con 24.5% (-7.5%), Lab 18.5% (+10.7%), Green 3.5% (-3.8%) UKIP 11.3% from nowhere, no BNP 6.2%
* Swing Conservative to Lib Dem 1½% since 2009 and 5½% since 2005
July 12th 2012
10. Oxfordshire, Cowley & Littlemore - Labour hold following resignation of previous councillor
Relative turnout 73% compared to 2009 (36% to 2005)
Lab 64.6% (+22.4%), Con 15.4% (-6.2%), Green 13.3% (-8.5%), LD 6.7% (-7.7%)
* Swing Conservative to Labour 14.3% since 2009 and 13% since 2005
2nd August 2012
11. Lincolnshire, Lincoln East - Labour gain from Conservative following resignation of previous councillor
Relative turnout 63% compared to 2009 (40% to 2005)
Lab 48.8% (+14.5%), Con 27.2% (-11.8%), LD 8.2% (-18.4%), UKIP 6.8%, TUSC 6.8%, Eng Dem 2.1% all from nowhere
* Swing Conservative to Labour 13.1% since 2009 and 3.8% since 2005
6th September 2012
12. Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby - Conservative gain from Lib Dem following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 71% compared to 2009 (45% to 2005)
Con 43.4% (+9.4%), LD 25.4% (-35.2%), Lab 10.9% (+5.3%), UKIP 11.2%, Lincs Ind 8.3% & Eng Dem 0.9% all from nowhere
* Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 22.3% since 2009 and 16.4% since 2005
September 20th 2012
13. Nottinghamshire, Rufford - Labour gain from Independent following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 73% compared to 2009 (44% to 2005)
Lab 58.0% (+27.8%), Con 24.6% (-9.7%), Ind 12.9% (-22.7%), UKIP 4.6% from nowhere
* Swing Independent to Labour 25.2% since 2009, Conservative to Labour 5.3% since 2005
September 27th 2012
14. Norfolk, Clenchwarton & Kings Lynn South - Labour gain from Conservative following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 70% compared to 2009 (42% to 2005)
Lab 45.8% (+34.1%), Con 23.5% (-15.7%), LD 15.7% (-13.1%), UKIP 15.0% from nowhere, no BNP 12.1% nor Green 8.3%
* Swing Conservative to Labour 25% since 2009 and 13% since 2005 as local incinerator issue appears to have played a large part.
October 18th 2012
15. Kent, Maidstone Central - Lib Dem hold following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout ~58% compared to 2009 (~36% to 2005)
LD 40.1% (-4.1%), Con 24.1% (-2.8%), Lab 17.4% (+11.1%), UKIP 9.4% (-4.3%) Green 7.3% (-1.7%) Eng Dem 1.6% from nowhere
* Swing Lib Dem to Conservative 0.7% (average) or 2.0% "top" since 2009 but circa 4% Conservative to Lib Dem since 2005 with the Labour share down ~5%.
November 15th 2012
16. West Sussex, Midhurst - Conservative hold following resignation of previous councillor
Relative turnout 50% compared to 2009 (31% to 2005)
Con 78.2% (+9.8%), UKIP 21.8% from nowhere, no LD 26.3%, no Lab 5.4%
* Swing not meaningful given straight fight between Con & UKIP who did not contest previous elections
December 20th
17. Kent, Gravesham Rural - Conservative hold following death of previous Councillor
Relative turnout 42% compared to 2009 (25% to 2005)
Con 61.3% (+1.3%), Lab 13.7% (+4.2%), LD 3.1% (-6.0%), UKIP 21.8% from nowhere, no Green 10.5%, no Eng Dem 10.8%
* Swing Conservative to Labour 1½% since 2009 but Labour to Conservative of 5.3% since 2005

[middleenglander]

May 2013 also sees some Unitary Authority elections being contested for a second time since they were created from former County Councils and which were first contested in 2008 or 2009.

Again the "6 month" rule applies to all known vacancies.

A similar analysis for these Authorities to that for the County Councils is given by:

21st June 2012
1. Durham, Peterlee West - Labour re-gain from Lib Dem following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 71% compared to 2008 (41% to 2005 General Election day)
Lab 70.1% (+25.7%), LD 9.0% (-46.6%), Ind 16.5% and Con 4.3% from nowhere
* swing Lib Dem to Labour 36% since 2008 although no Lib Dem candidate in 2005
13th September 2012
2. Shropshire UA, Church Stretton & Craven Arms - Conservative hold following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 73% compared to 2009 (new seat)
Con 44.8% (+14.1%), LD 35.7% (+11.9%) Lab 19.5% (+7.4%), no No Desc 14.2%, Green 13.8% and BNP 5.3%
* swing Lib Dem to Conservative some 1% to 1½% since 2009
20th September 2012
3. Cornwall UA, St Keverne & Meneage - Conservative gain from Independent following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 55% compared to 2009 (new seat)
Con 55.3% (+21.0%), LD 26.4% (+19.8%), Lab 4.9% (+3.2%), UKIP 13.3% from nowhere, no Ind1 (35.2%), no Ind2 (18.6%, now Con candidate), no Other (3.5%)
* Swing 0.6% Lib Dem to Conservative since 2009 although not very meaningful.
6th December 2012
4. Cornwall UA, Gwinear - Gwithian St Erth - Conservative hold following death of previous councillor
Relative turnout 59% compared to 2009 (new seat)
Con 35.3% (-2.8%), Ind 17.7% (-16.3%), LD 12.9% (-9.3%), Lab 8.1% (+2.5%). Ind2 17.3%, MK 6.2%, Ind3 2.6% all from nowhere
* Swing 6.7% Independent to Conservative and 3.2% Lib Dem to Conservative although of limited meaning

[middleenglander]

There have been 17 County Council by-elections from May to the end of the year, including 5 on the main election date, with 5 seats (29%) changing hands. There will most likely be no more contests ahead of the May 2013 County Council elections as all known vacancies are covered by the "6 month" rule.

Seats	Contested	Defended	Retained	Gained	Lost	Won
Conservative	17	10	7	1	3	8
Labour	16	1	1	3	-	4
Lib Dems	14	5	4	-	1	4
Green	8	-	-	-	-	-
UKIP	13	-	-	-	-	-
Independent	4	1	-	1	1	1
Local Group	1	-	-	-	-	-
Eng Dem	3	-	-	-	-	-
TUSC	1	-	-	-	-	-
Total	77	17	12	5	5	17

The Local Group candidate was for the Lincolnshire Independents contesting Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby.

The Conservatives gained a seat from the Lib Dems but lost 2 to Labour and 1 to an Independent:
* gained Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby (06 / 09) from Lib Dems on a 22% swing since 2009 and 16% swing since 2005
* lost Lincolnshire, Lincoln East to Labour (02 / 08), a seat gained in 2009, on a 13% swing since 2009 and 4% since 2005
* lost Norfolk, Clenchwarton & Kings Lynn South to Labour (27 / 09), a seat gained from the Lib Dems in 2009, on a 25% swing since 2009 and 13% since 2013
* lost North Yorkshire, Central Richmondshire to an Independent (03 / 05) on a swing of 11% since 2009 and 6% since 2005.
In addition, Labour regained a seat lost to and Independent in 2009
* Nottinghamshire, Rufford (20 / 09) on a 25% swing since 2009 and a 5% swing from Conservatives since 2005

The Conservatives retained 7 seats with Labour in second place in 3 of the contests (2 where the Lib Dems had been in second in 2009), Lib Dems retaining second in 2 whilst UKIP were second in 2 of the by-elections (1 a straight fight with Conservative where Lib Dems were second in 2009 and 1 where English Democrats had come second in 2009).
The Lib Dems retained 4 seats with the Conservatives retaining second in 2 contests and Labour coming second in 2, one of which they pushed the Conservatives into 3rd from a runner up position in 2009.
Labour easily retained 1 seat where the Conservatives came second whilst the Greens were runner up in 2009.

[middleenglander]

The Labour performance in these County Council by-elections can be assessed by:

County	Division	Result	Labour Share	+ /- Since 2009	+ / - Since 2005
Cumbria	Kendal Strickland & Fell	LD hold	27.1%	+19.9%	-18.2%
Hertfordshire	Meridon Tudor	LD hold	25.8%	+13.0%	-4.5%
North Yorkshire	Central Richmondshire	Ind gain from Con	15.2%	+10.3%	no candidate
Suffolk	Bixley	Con hold	28.6%	+15.0%	+2.6%
Surrey	Worplesdon	Con hold	13.7%	+9.5%	+7.4%
Cumbria	Aspatria & Wharrels	Con hold	28.9%	+4.1%	-1.1%
Kent	Tunbridge Wells East	Con hold	8.9%	+2.2%	-8.8%
Hertfordshire	Hemel Hemstead Town	Con hold	23.5%	+8.8%	-10.1%
Essex	Chelmsford North	LD hold	18.5%	+10.7%	-6.8%
Oxfordshire	Cowley & Littlemore	Lab hold	64.6%	+22.4%	+22.6%
Lincolnshire	Lincoln East	Lab gain from Con	48.8%	+14.5%	+6.8%
Lincolnshire	Nettleham & Saxily	Con gain from LD	10.9%	+5.3%	-7.0%
Nottinghamshire	Rufford	Lab gain from Ind	58.0%	+27.8%	+9.6%
Norfolk	Clenchwarton & Kings Lynn South	Lab gain from Con	45.8%	+34.1%	+14.7%
Kent	Maidstone Central	LD hold	17.4%	+11.1%	-5.0%
West Sussex	Midhurst	Con hold	no candidate	polled 5.4%	no candidate
Kent	Gravesham Rural	Con hold	13.7%	+4.2%	-9.0%
	Arithmetic Average		28.1%	13.3%

Compared to 2009, when Labour won only 8% of all the 1,858 County Council Divisions across the country, its share has increased in all the 16 contests fought. On a very crude measure of arithmetic average its share in the by-elections has broadly doubled.

However, individual seats have ranged from an increase of 2.2% in Kent, Tunbridge Wells East (where both the Lib Dems and UKIP ran the Conservatives close) to an increase of 34.1% in Norfolk, Clenchwarton & Kings Lynn South (when Labour gained the seat from the Conservatives who had themselves gained it from the Lib Dems in 2009 and where the issue of a proposed incinerator may have played a significant part). Six of the contests saw the Labour share increase by less than 10%, a further 6 by between 10% and 15% and the remaining four by between almost 20% and 34%.

However compared to 2005, a General Election day when the County Council elections were also held with Labour not contesting 2 of the seats where there have been by-elections, the Labour share was lower in 9 of the contests, (ranging from 1.1% to 18.2% with an arithmetic average of nearly 8% lower) and higher in 6. Three of these were in the seats the party gained whilst a fourth was in Oxford where the Lib Dem share fell from 25% in 2005 to under 7% in 2012. The other 2 was a relatively small increase in Suffolk and from a very low base in Surrey where a Lib Dem challenge for the seat significantly faded.

It goes without saying that Labour should see a substantial increase in its share in most County Council seats compared to 2009. However, on the evidence of these by-elections, it may well struggle meet its 2005 share in many of less urban seats in the shire counties.

[middleenglander]

Whilst the Liberal Democrat performance in these County Council by-elections can be assessed by:

County	Division	Result	Lib Dem Share	+ /- Since 2009	+ / - Since 2005
Cumbria	Kendal Strickland & Fell	LD hold	54.9%	-17.3%	+18.6%
Hertfordshire	Meridon Tudor	LD hold	40.2%	-3.6%	+1.1%
North Yorkshire	Central Richmondshire	Ind gain from Con	no candidate	polled 16.9%	polled 23.0%
Suffolk	Bixley	Con hold	6.4%	-10.9%	-18.9%
Surrey	Worplesdon	Con hold	32.7%	-2.4%	-12.1%
Cumbria	Aspatria & Wharrels	Con hold	11.5%	-6.9%	-10.1%
Kent	Tunbridge Wells East	Con hold	28.2%	-3.6%	-8.4%
Hertfordshire	Hemel Hemstead Town	Con hold	15.4%	-5.8%	-5.2%
Essex	Chelmsford North	LD hold	42.1%	-4.6%	+3.0%
Oxfordshire	Cowley & Littlemore	Lab hold	6.7%	-7.7%	-17.4%
Lincolnshire	Lincoln East	Lab gain from Con	8.2%	-18.4%	-17.3%
Lincolnshire	Nettleham & Saxily	Con gain from LD	25.4%	-35.2%	-23.1%
Nottinghamshire	Rufford	Lab gain from Ind	no candidate	no candidate	no candidate
Norfolk	Clenchwarton & Kings Lynn South	Lab gain from Con	15.7%	-13.1%	-18.9%
Kent	Maidstone Central	LD hold	40.1%	-4.1%	+5.4%
West Sussex	Midhurst	Con hold	no candidate	polled 26.3%	polled 28.0%
Kent	Gravesham Rural	Con hold	3.1%	-6.0%	-7.8%
	Arithmetic Average		23.6%	-10.0%

Compared to 2009, when the Lib Dems won some 18% of the 1,858 County Council Divisions across the country, their share has fallen in all the 14 contests fought. On a very crude measure of arithmetic average the party's share in the by-elections has fallen by around 10% from some 33% achieved in 2009.

However, individual seats have ranged from a fall of 2.4% in Surrey, Worpleson (a second by-election in the Division since 2009) to a decrease of 35.2% in Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby (when the Conservatives gained both the County and a District seat from the Lib Dems). Five of the contests saw the Lib Dem share fall by less than 5%, four by between 5% to 10%, two 10% to 15%, another two 15% to 20% whilst there was the one at 35%.

When compared to 2005, a General Election day when the County Council elections were also held with the Lib Dems then not contesting one of the seats where there have been by-elections against three in 2012, the Lib Dem share was lower in 10 of the contests - ranging from 5.2% to 23.1% with an arithmetic average of nearly 14% lower - and higher in 4. These were all in the seats the party retained with 3 share increases in the range 1% to 5% whilst 18% in a seat won by Labour in 2005 but gained by the Lib Dems in 2009.

The Lib Dems successfully retained 4 of the 5 seats defended which will give some expectation that they can be more successful in May than the overall shares suggest. However, they must hope the loss of the Lincolnshire seat to the Conservatives on a 22% swing since 2009 and 16% since 2005 is indeed the exception that proves the rule.

[middleenglander]

and that for the Conservatives by:

County	Division	Result	Conservative Share	+ /- Since 2009	+ / - Since 2005
Cumbria	Kendal Strickland & Fell	LD hold	12.7%	-4.7%	-5.7%
Hertfordshire	Meridon Tudor	LD hold	17.4%	-10.3%	-8.6%
North Yorkshire	Central Richmondshire	Ind gain from Con	41.1%	-3.4%	+8.0%
Suffolk	Bixley	Con hold	43.8%	-11.3%	-5.0%
Surrey	Worplesdon	Con hold	53.6%	+5.1%	+8.4%
Cumbria	Aspatria & Wharrels	Con hold	34.7%	-22.1%	-13.7%
Kent	Tunbridge Wells East	Con hold	32.3%	-17.0%	-7.3%
Hertfordshire	Hemel Hemstead Town	Con hold	47.8%	-3.0%	+8.7%
Essex	Chelmsford North	LD hold	24.5%	-7.5%	-8.1%
Oxfordshire	Cowley & Littlemore	Lab hold	15.4%	-6.2%	-3.3%
Lincolnshire	Lincoln East	Lab gain from Con	27.2%	-11.8%	-1.0%
Lincolnshire	Nettleham & Saxily	Con gain from LD	43.4%	+9.4%	+9.7%
Nottinghamshire	Rufford	Lab gain from Ind	24.6%	-9.7%	-1.1%
Norfolk	Clenchwarton & Kings Lynn South	Lab gain from Con	23.5%	-15.7%	-11.8%
Kent	Maidstone Central	LD hold	24.1%	-2.8%	-4.7%
West Sussex	Midhurst	Con hold	78.2%	+9.9%	+39.7%
Kent	Gravesham Rural	Con hold	61.3%	+1.3%	+1.6%
	Arithmetic Average		35.6%	-5.9%

Compared to 2009, when the Conservatives won some 68% of the 1,858 County Council Divisions across the country, their share has fallen in 13 the 17 contests fought. On a very crude measure of arithmetic average the party's share in the by-elections has fallen by around 6% from some 42% achieved in 2009.

However, individual seats have ranged from an increase of an unrepresentative 9.9% in Sussex, Midhurst (a straight fight with UKIP) but also 9.4% in Lincolnshire, Nettleham & Saxilby (when the Conservatives gained both the County and a District seat from the Lib Dems) to a reduced share of 22.1% in Cumbria, Aspatria and Wharrels (a second byelection in short order). Four of the contests saw the Conservative share fall by less than 5%, three between 5% to 10%, another three 10% to 15% whilst two were between 15% to 20% together with the one at 22%.

When compared to 2005, a General Election day when the County Council elections were also held, the Conservative share was higher in 6 of the contests, including the Hemel Hemstead Town seat where Labour was just 5½% behind in 2005. It was lower in 11 of the contests, less than 5% in 5, 5% to 10% in 4 and 10% to 15% in the remaining 2. There is a less clear pattern here than for either Labour or the Lib Dems.

The results of the 4 by-elections in the Unitary Authorities which will also hold all out elections in May 2013 are broadly consistent with the County Council elections in similar profile areas; Labour easily regained a seat in Durham won unexpectedly by the Lib Dems in 2008 whilst the Conservatives held seats in Cornwall and Shropshire along with gaining another in Cornwall from an Independent, all three showing a small swing to the Conservatives from the Lib Dems.