Prediction Competition for July 2014

[Robert Waller]

For the record, I intended for Harrogate
Lib Dem 43 C 34.
My fault(ssssss ...!)


However, I believe I do have an IOC gain for Ledbury.

[middleenglander]

Jul 17, 2014 10:30:21 GMT Robert Waller said:

However, I believe I do have an IOC gain for Ledbury.

Amended, it should have been Joe for the Conservative hold.

[Pete Whitehead]

Have we had a prediction week previously with seats being defended by all of the Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dems, Greens, UKIP and the SNP ?

[middleenglander]

Argyll & Bute, Oban North & Lorne
tonyotim 11.0 faults, brianj 14.8+10, Mark Senior 35.8, PhilDav 38.4, Pete Whitehead 29.7+10, Joe 32.2+10, hempie 42.9, Myth11 43.9, David Boothroyd 38.4+10, Robert Waller 47.8+10

Cornwall, Mabe, Perranarworthal & St Gluvais
Pete Whitehead 13.3 faults, David Boothroyd 10.3+10, PhilDav 21.0, tonyotim 18.7+10, brianj 29.2, Joe 29.5, Mark Senior 22.1+10, hempie 24.1+10, Robert Waller 28.1+10, Myth11 32.1+10

East Dorset, Colehill
brianj 18.5 faults, Robert Waller 20.5, Joe 22.5, Pete Whitehead 23.3, PhilDav 23.9, tonyotim 24.1, Mark Senior 24.5, hempie 27.9, David Boothroyd 28.5, Myth11 38.5

Harrogate, Hookstone
PhilDav 13.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 15.9, tonyotim 17.0, hempie 17.4, David Boothroyd & Joe 19.4, Mark Senior 19.7, Myth11 33.7, brianj 33.4+10, Robert Waller 35.4+10

Herefordshire, Ledbury
PhilDav 9.5 faults, Mark Senior 15.5, Pete Whitehead 16.0, brianj 19.5, Robert Waller 21.2, David Boothroyd & Myth11 23.5, hempie 25.5, tonyotim 25.7, Joe 23.2+10

Herefordshire, Leominster South
tonyotim 37.3+10 faults, hempie 41.7+10, Joe 49.3+10, Robert Waller 49.7+10, Mark Senior 53.7+10, PhilDav 55.7+10, Pete Whitehead 58.7+10, brianj 59.3+10, Myth11 61.3+10, David Boothroyd 69.3+10

Oxford, Cowley
tonyotim 18.4 faults, Joe 18.7, Robert Waller 19.4, hempie 20.2, Pete Whitehead 20.9, Mark Senior 21.4, PhilDav 22.2, David Boothroyd 23.4, Myth11 34.6, brianj 36.2

Redditch, Church Hill
Joe 5.2 faults, PhilDav 15.4, tonyotim 16.6, Pete Whitehead 18.4, hempie 23.4, Robert Waller 25.2, David Boothroyd 27.4, Myth11 32.0, Mark Senior 35.2, brianj 39.4+10

and with one result to come, for the week
tonyotim 188.8 faults, PhilDav 209.5, Pete Whitehead 216.1, Joe 230.0, hempie 243.2, Mark Senior 247.9, David Boothroyd 270.1, Robert Waller 287.3, brianj 290.3, Myth11 319.4

Kings Lynn & West Norfolk, Airfield
Joe 21.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 23.3, brianj 25.9, Myth11 29.9, Robert Waller 31.3, David Boothroyd 37.3, hempie & Mark Senior 39.3, tonyotim 40.5, PhilDav 41.3, Pete Whitehead 52.3

and for the 3rd week of July:
tonyotim 229.4 faults, Pete Whitehead 239.5, PhilDav 250.8, Joe 251.4, Pete Whitehead 268.5, hempie 282.5, Mark Senior 287.3, David Boothroyd 307.5, brianj 316.2, Robert Waller 318.6, Myth11 349.3

and with 25 now completed of the 37 July contests:

648.4 PhilDav
671.8 tonyotim
688.6 Joe
700.8 Pete Whitehead
729.8 Pete Whitehead
750.4 Mark Senior

769.2 Robert Waller
797.8 hempie
828.6 David Boothroyd
872.2 brianj
898.3 Myth11

Objections please by noon Sunday.

There are 8 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 Thursday.

[Pete Whitehead]

I make my faults 23.3 in Airfield

[Tony Otim]

i'm away for the next few weeks, but middleenglander has my predictions for the next two weeks and can post them on the relevant days. My track record of forecasting weeks in advance is lousy, so expect me to drop down the leaderboard.

[middleenglander]

Jul 18, 2014 15:19:47 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

I make my faults 23.3 in Airfield

You are quite correct, I transpose the Green and UKIP predictions. Now corrected. Fingers crossed there are no more such errors!!

[myth11]

lets see if i can stay under 1200 
BLACKPOOL - Clifton

lab 44

con 24

ukip 16

green 7

lib dem 5

tusc 4

DONCASTER - Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun

lab 38

ukip 37

con 19

green 6

MAIDSTONE - Staplehurst

lib dem 32

con 30

ukip 20

lab 14

green 4

NORTHUMBERLAND - Longhoughton

con 36

indy 26

ukip 16

lib dem 12

lab 10

READING - Southcote

lab 52

con 21

green 12

ukip 9

lib dem 6

RHONDDA CYNON TAFF - Aberaman North

lab 59

pc 28

con 5

tusc 5

indy 3

WALSALL - Birchills Leamore

lab 42

con 28

ukip 26

english dem 4

WINDSOR & MAIDENHEAD - Clewer North

con 42

indy 40

lab 18

[Robert Waller]

BLACKPOOL - Clifton

lab 52

con 23

ukip 16

green 3

lib dem 3

tusc 3

DONCASTER - Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun

lab 49

ukip 29

con 19

green 3

MAIDSTONE - Staplehurst

lib dem 33

con 37

ukip 18

lab 9

green 3

NORTHUMBERLAND - Longhoughton

con 29

indy 36

ukip 15

lib dem 8

lab 12

READING - Southcote

lab 55

con 23

green 7

ukip 13

lib dem 2

RHONDDA CYNON TAFF - Aberaman North

lab 55

pc 22

con 6

tusc 7

indy 10

WALSALL - Birchills Leamore

lab 47

con 24

ukip 24

english dem 5

WINDSOR & MAIDENHEAD - Clewer North

con 37

indy 49

lab 14

[Davıd Boothroyd]

BLACKPOOL Clifton: Lab 54, C 20, UKIP 10, L Dem 8, GP 6, TUSC 2
DONCASTER Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall and Barnby Dun: Lab 45, UKIP 28, C 23, GP 4
MAIDSTONE Staplehurst: C 35, L Dem 30, UKIP 24, Lab 8, GP 3
NORTHUMBERLAND Longhoughton: C 36, Ind 35, L Dem 18, UKIP 7, Lab 4
READING Southcote: Lab 54, C 25, UKIP 10, L Dem 6, GP 5
RHONDDA CYNON TAFF Aberaman North: Lab 57, PC 29, Ind 9, TUSC 3, C 2
WALSALL Birchills Leamore: Lab 53, UKIP 27, C 16, ED 4
WINDSOR AND MAIDENHEAD Clewer North: Ind 55, C 39, Lab 6

[Deleted]

BLACKPOOL
Lab 50
Con 25
UKIP 17.5
Green 3.5
TUSC 2
LD 2

DONCASTER
Lab 50
UKIP 26
Con 20
Green 4

MAIDSTONE
LD 36
Con 35.5
UKIP 16
Lab 9
Green 3.5

NORTHUMBERLAND
Con 37
IND 32
LD 13
UKIP 10
Lab 8

READING
Lab 53
Con 24
UKIP 12
Green 7.5
LD 3.5

RHONDDA CYNON TAFF
Lab 55
PC 25
IND 11
Con 5
TUSC 4

WALSALL
Lab 47
Con 25
UKIP 24
ED 4

WINDSOR
IND 49
Con 38
Lab 13

[brianj]

Glad to have escaped the cellar! Woo-hoo.

Blackpool, Clifton: Lab 43, UKIP 24, Con 23, Green 6, LibDem 3, TUSC 1.
Doncaster, Edenthorpe etc.: Lab 44, UKIP 33, Con 15, Green 8.
Maidstone, Staplehurst: Con 32, UKIP 26, LibDem 20, Lab 13, Green 9.
Northumberland, Longhoughton: Ind 42, UKIP 22, Con 19, LibDem 12, Lab 5.
Reading, Southcote: Lab 52, Con 17, UKIP 13, Green 10, LibDem 8.
Rhondda, Cynon Taff: Lab 61, Plaid 21, Con 10, Ind 6, TUSC 2.
Walsall, Birchills Leamore: Lab 40, UKIP 35, Con 23, EDem 2.
Windsor & Maidenhead, Clewer North: Ind 44, Con 34, Lab 22.

[hempie]

Blackpool, Clifton: Lab 45, Con 28, UKIP 12, LD 8, Green 5, TUSC 2
Doncaster, Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun: Lab 45, UKIP 32, Con 19, Green 4
Maidstone, Staplehurst: Con 36, LD 30, UKIP 20, Lab 9, Green 5
Northumberland, Longhoughton: Con 32, Ind 27, LD 17, UKIP 16, Lab 8
Reading, Southcote: Lab 51, Con 23, Green 11, UKIP 10,LD 5
Rhondda, Cynon Taff: Lab 52, Plaid 30, Ind 10, Con 4,TUSC 4
Walsall, Birchills Leamore: Lab 45, UKIP 26, Con 25, ED 4
Windsor & Maidenhead, Clewer North: Ind 46, Con 40, Lab 14

[marksenior]

Blackpool Lab 51 Con 22 UKIP 16 Green 5 LD 4 TUSC 3
Doncaster Lab 51 UKIP 28 Con 17 Green 4
Maidstone Con 42 LD 28 UKIP 18 Lab 8 Green 4
Northumberland Ind 36 Con 30 UKIP 14 Lab 12 LD 8
Reading Lab 51 Con 25 UKIP 11 Green 8 LD 5
Rhondda Lab 60 Plaid 24 Ind 8 TUSC 5 Con 3
Walsall Lab 48 Con 24 UKIP 21 Eng Dem 7
Windsor Ind 46 Con 36 Lab 18

[Philip Davies]

Jul 24, 2014 1:16:04 GMT Philip Davies said:

Blackpool - Clifton
Bruce ALLEN (Conservative Party Candidate) 25
Gita GORDON (Liberal Democrats) 5
Tina ROTHERY (Green Party Stop Fracking Now) 8
Spencer SHACKLETON (UK Independence Party) 12
Luke TAYLOR (Labour Party Candidate) 48
Philip WATT (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 2

Doncaster - Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun
Nick ALLEN (The Conservative Party Candidate) 20
Paul BISSETT (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 25
Pete KENNEDY (Green Party) 7.5
David NEVETT (Labour Party Candidate) 47.5

Maidstone - Staplehurst
Louise BRICE (The Conservative Party Candidate) 43.5
David GEORGE (Green Party) 2.5
Jamie KALMAR (UKIP) 17.5
John RANDALL (Labour Party Candidate) 7.5
Paulina WATSON (Liberal Democrat) 29

Northumberland - Longhoughton
Kate CAIRNS (Liberal Democrats) 10
John HOPE (Conservative and Unionist Party) 20
Nicola MORRISON (Labour Party Candidate) 10
Wendy PATTISON (Independent) 48
Michael WEATHERITT (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 12

Reading - Southcote
Matthew LAWRENCE (Labour Party Candidate) 56
Alan LOCKEY (Green Party) 5
Margaret MCNEILL (Liberal Democrats) 4
Ellis WIGGINS (The Conservative Party Candidate) 23
Ann ZEBEDEE (UK Independence Party (UKIP)) 12

Rhonda Cynon Taf - Aberaman North
Sheryl EVANS (Welsh Labour / Llafur Cymru) 58
Mia HOLLSING (Trade Unionists and Socialists Against Cuts) 7
Lewis ISRAEL (Welsh Conservative Party Candidate) 5
Andrew THOMAS (Independent) 10
Julie WILLIAMS (Plaid Cymru - The Party Of Wales) 20

Walsall - Birchills Leamore
Gazanfer ALI (Conservative) 28
Chris JONES (Labour) 42
Chris NEWEY (English Democrats - For an Independent England) 5
Paul WHITE (UKIP) 25

Windsor & Maidenhead - Clewer North
John COLLINS (The Conservative Party) 38
Wisdom DA COSTA (Independent) 50
Peter SHEARMAN (Labour Party Candidate) 12

[Pete Whitehead]

Jul 23, 2014 15:34:35 GMT Pete Whitehead said:

Doncaster MB - Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun

Lab   43.5%
UKIP 32.7%
Con   18.9%
Grn     4.9%


Walsall MB - Birchills Leamore

Lab   49.1%
UKIP 23.8%
Con   22.5%
ED      4.6%


Blackpool UA - Clifton

Lab   49.3%
UKIP 23.4%
Con   19.9%
Grn     3.3%
LD       2.6%
TUSC  1.5%


Northumberland UA - Longhoughton

Ind   39.9%
Con  26.4%
LD    16.7%
UKIP 11.5%
Lab     5.5%


Reading UA - Southcote

Lab   52.1%
Con  25.2%
UKIP 10.8%
Grn     6.2%
LD      5.7%


Windsor & Maidenhead UA - Clewer North

Ind  47.9%
Con 39.2%
Lab 12.9%


Maidstone BC - Staplehurst

LD    35.8%
Con  34.6%
UKIP 17.3%
Lab     7.9%
Grn     4.4%


Rhondda Cynon Taff CC - Aberaman North

Lab 56.7%
PC   21.5%
Ind  15.8%
Con   3.5%
TUSC 2.5%

[middleenglander]

Have posted this but it appears to have disappeared into the ether.

10 entries this week with Mark Senior getting 1 additional point for adding to 101% in Blackpool whilst tonyotim gets 0.8 additional faults for adding to 100.8 in Northumberland.

Blackpool: 100% Labour hold
Doncaster 100% Labour hold
Maidstone: 7 Conservative hold, Joe, Myth11 and Pete Whitehead Liberal Democrat Gain
Northumberland: 6 Independent hold, David Boothroyd, hempie, Joe & Myth11 Conservative gain
Reading: 100% Labour hold
Rhondda: 100% Labour hold
Walsall: 1005 Labour hold
Windsor & Maidenhead: 9 Independent hold, Myth11 Conservative gain

tonyotim's predictions:

Blackpool: Lab 52.1, Con 22.8, UKIP 15.3, G 4.5, LD 3.2, TUSAC 2.1
Doncaster: Lab 39.7, UKIP 34.8, Con 20.2, G 5.3
Maidstone: Con 38.1, LD 29.7, UKIP 21.8, Lab 6.7, G 3.7
Northumberland: Ind 30.9, Con 27.8, UKIP 22.1, LD 12.5, Lab 7.5
Reading: Lab 53.2, Con 26.8, UKIP 11.1, G 6.2, LD 2.7
Rhondda: Lab 52.8, PC 22.4, Ind 17.0, TUSAC 4.6, Con 3.2
Walsall: Lab 45.6, Con 27.8, UKIP 21.4, ED 5.2
Windsor & Maidenhead: Ind 46.3, Con 37.5, Lab 16.2

[middleenglander]

With 2 results to come and full verification in the morning it looks like tonyotim has taken a 17 point lead with then Pete Whitehead, PhilDav and Joe all very close.

[middleenglander]

Blackpool, Clifton
brianj 12.3 faults, Pete Whitehead 19.9, Joe 26.1, Myth11 27.6, Robert Waller 28.3, tonyotim 30.1, Mark Senior 31.3+1, hempie & PhilDav 35.6, David Boothroyd 46.3

Doncaster, Edenthorpe, Kirk Sandall & Barnby Dun
Myth11 7.5+10 faults, tonyotim 12.2+10, Pete Whitehead 17.2+10, brianj 18.0+10, hempie 20.4+10, David Boothroyd, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 28.4+10, PhilDav 31.5+10, Joe 32.4+10

Maidstone, Staplehurst
Pete Whitehead 5.8 faults, Joe 6.2, Robert Waller 7.5+10, Myth11 20.2, hempie 12.5+10, tonyotim 13.6+10, David Boothroyd 14.2+10, PhilDav 16.5+10, Mark Senior 17.5+10, brianj 40.2+10

Reading, Southcote
PhilDav 10.2 faults, Robert Waller 12.0, Joe 16.2, tonyotim 18.0, David Boothroyd 18.2, Pete Whitehead 20.4, brianj 22.1, Mark Senior 22.2, hempie & Myth11 24.2

Rhondda Cynon Taf
tonyotim 32.8 faults, Pete Whitehead 37.1, Joe 39.6, hempie 41.1, David Boothroyd 43.6, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 47.6, PhilDav 51.6, 51.6, Myth11 55.1, brianj 58.7

Walsall, Birchills-Leamore
tonyotim 11.9 faults, Joe 14.7, Mark Senior 15.1, Robert Waller 16.7, Pete Whitehead 18.1, hempie, Myth11 & PhilDav 18.7, David Boothroyd 31.1, brianj 32.7

and after 6 results for the week, 2 to come:
Pete Whitehead 128.5 faults, tonyotim 138.5, Joe 145.2, Robert Waller 160.4, Myth11 163.4, hempie 172.5, Mark Senior 183.0, PhilDav 184.1, David Boothroyd 201.7, brianj 204.0

Windsor & Maidenhead, Clewer North
David Boothroyd 14.1 faults, PhilDav 15.4, Joe & Robert Waller 17.4, Pete Whitehead 19.6, tonyotim 22.8, hempie & Mark Senior 23.4, brianj 27.4, Myth11 35.4+10

Northumberland, Longhoughton
tonyotim 55.8+0.8+10 faults, hempie 65.2+10, Pete Whitehead 65.8+10, David Boothroyd 68.7+10, Joe 73.2+10, Myth11 75.2+10, Mark Senior & Robert Waller 83.2+10, brianj 84.3+10, PhilDav 86.3+10

and for the week
Pete Whitehead 223.9 faults, tonyotim 227.9, Joe 245.7, Robert Waller 270.9, hempie 271.1, Myth11 294.0, David Boothroyd 294.5, PhilDav 295.8, Mark Senior 299.6, brianj 325.6

and for the first 4 weeks of July:

899.7 tonyotim
924.7 Pete Whitehead
934.4 Joe
944.2 PhilDav

1040.1 Robert Waller
1050.0 Mark Senior
1068.9 hempie

1123.2 David Boothroyd
1192.2 Myth11
1197.8 brianj

Objections please by noon Sunday

4 by-elections next week. Predictions on this thread by 9.00 am Thursday

[Philip Davies]

Jul 18, 2014 15:40:07 GMT Tony Otim said:

i'm away for the next few weeks, but middleenglander has my predictions for the next two weeks and can post them on the relevant days. My track record of forecasting weeks in advance is lousy, so expect me to drop down the leaderboard.

This was your only poor prediction!