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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 16, 2014 14:19:41 GMT
Presidential, Congress, state gubernatiorial and state legislative elections due 5th October. I am looking for any useful polling and will post it here.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Jun 24, 2014 8:50:16 GMT
Is it looking like Dilma Rousseff will get a serious run for her money this time? She'll certainly be faced with a run-off, I think, but I think she'll win in the second round. I suspect that even if the opposition coalesces clearly in the second round, the PT have enough in the tank to get her another term. However, I suspect it will be the beginning of the end. Interestingly, her main rival Aecio Neves is the grandson of Tancredo Neves, and I suspect some name-recognition on the national scale and he is also very popular in the home state he shares with Rousseff: Minas Gerais (although she's been in Rio Grande do Sul for some time). MG voted quite heavily for Rousseff last time, so Neves might bite into the vote there. If he can keep her below 40% in the first round, he's having a good night. If he keeps her below 35%, she will be very worried. Keep an eye out for a distinct North-South split, which has been manifesting itself for a while. Rousseff did not carry any state west or south of Rio de Janeiro last time bar MG. Some other interesting areas to note, that could affect the election: - Mato Grosso do Sul. Last time, this curiously voted for Rousseff in the first round, and Serra in the second. Expect it to swing to Neves this time in the first round. RG do Sul also followed this pattern, but I suspect it will not fall to Neves. - Sao Paulo. Biggest state but also very receptive to the Right, more so than RJ. Expect a reduced Rousseff vote here, which may prove to cause her some problems. - A general reduction in the PT vote in the hostile southern states, particularly Santa Catarina. |
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Post by mrhell on Aug 14, 2014 21:16:01 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Oct 5, 2014 19:11:38 GMT
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Post by Devonian on Oct 5, 2014 22:20:23 GMT
Globo exit poll
Dilma (PT) 44%
Aécio (PSDB) 30%
Marina (PSB) 22%
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Post by Devonian on Oct 5, 2014 22:31:44 GMT
With about 82.9% of the vote counted
Dilma 40.4%
Aécio Neves 35.0%
Marina Silva 21.0%
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 5, 2014 23:10:36 GMT
With about 82.9% of the vote counted Dilma 40.4% Aécio Neves 35.0% Marina Silva 21.0% Now with 91.71% of the sections counted the totals are: Dilma (PT) 40,91% Aécio Neves (PSDB) 34,38% Marina Silva (PSB) 21,11% Looking at the state totals and comparing them to the 2010 first round there appears to be a polarising effect. Plus a very strange figures from Pernambuco (largest city: Recife) where Silva has the most votes and Neves only 6%. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 5, 2014 23:49:53 GMT
With about 82.9% of the vote counted Dilma 40.4% Aécio Neves 35.0% Marina Silva 21.0% Now with 91.71% of the sections counted the totals are: Dilma (PT) 40,91% Aécio Neves (PSDB) 34,38% Marina Silva (PSB) 21,11% Looking at the state totals and comparing them to the 2010 first round there appears to be a polarising effect. Plus a very strange figures from Pernambuco (largest city: Recife) where Silva has the most votes and Neves only 6%. Is that area particularly Evangelical? Or does it have a high proportion of people who share Silva's ethnicity? I would imagine Silva would be disappointed by that result, given that she was seen to be a challenger to Dilma. The evangelical vote doesn't appear to have voted for her on religious grounds? |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 6, 2014 7:14:32 GMT
Disappointing all round for Silva, Mike. Some of the polling I saw last week suggested she'd be second, now it looks like she was nowhere near.
It will be interesting to see the results of the other elections.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2014 8:07:15 GMT
Disappointing all round for Silva, Mike. Some of the polling I saw last week suggested she'd be second, now it looks like she was nowhere near. It will be interesting to see the results of the other elections. & my Election Game prediction is nowhere close ........  which following my typo predicting a 57% Yes vote (I meant No) in the referendum means I plummet down the table ..... |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 6, 2014 10:42:24 GMT
With about 82.9% of the vote counted Dilma 40.4% Aécio Neves 35.0% Marina Silva 21.0% Now with 91.71% of the sections counted the totals are: Dilma (PT) 40,91% Aécio Neves (PSDB) 34,38% Marina Silva (PSB) 21,11% Looking at the state totals and comparing them to the 2010 first round there appears to be a polarising effect. Plus a very strange figures from Pernambuco (largest city: Recife) where Silva has the most votes and Neves only 6%. Eduardo Campos was governor of Pernambuco. |
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 6, 2014 13:18:20 GMT
Now with 91.71% of the sections counted the totals are: Dilma (PT) 40,91% Aécio Neves (PSDB) 34,38% Marina Silva (PSB) 21,11% Looking at the state totals and comparing them to the 2010 first round there appears to be a polarising effect. Plus a very strange figures from Pernambuco (largest city: Recife) where Silva has the most votes and Neves only 6%. Eduardo Campos was governor of Pernambuco. That would explain it. Silva also received the most vote in her home state of Acre. Nearly final result of the first round. Dilma (PT) 41,59% 43.267.478 Aécio Neves (PSDB) 33,55% 34.897.206 Marina Silva (PSB) 21,32% 22.176.613 Luciana Genro (PSOL) 1,55% 1.612.186 Pastor Everaldo (PSC) 0,75% 780.507 Eduardo Jorge (PV) 0,61% 630.099 Levy Fidelix (PRTB) 0,43% 446.878 Zé Maria (PSTU) 0,09% 91.209 Eymael (PSDC) 0,06% 61.250 Mauro Iasi (PCB) 0,05% 47.845 Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) 0,01% 12.324 |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 6, 2014 16:35:31 GMT
Additionally Pernambuco includes Recife which is the largest metropolitan area in the North East; Silva's vote was pretty urban for the most part. The Sertão part of the state voted heavily for Dilma.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 12, 2014 15:44:10 GMT
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 12, 2014 16:38:50 GMT
Is she Ralph Nader in disguise? |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,035
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 22, 2014 0:44:55 GMT
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neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
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Post by neilm on Oct 22, 2014 1:16:42 GMT
Oh dear.
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 26, 2014 10:56:19 GMT
The second round of the Brazilian presidential election is today. The first polls following the first round had Aécio Neves slightly ahead of Dilma Rousseff. However more recent polls have generally given Rousseff a clear lead. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Oct 26, 2014 13:20:27 GMT
Finally got round to looking at the gubernatorial elections, and so far I see that the PT were crushed in both Sao Paulo and Rio, although the former particularly has never been too popular in SP compared to the rest of the country. Geraldo Alckmin re-elected in SP on the first round. Astonishingly, there was not one municipality where Alckmin did not win a majority.
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Post by Philip Davies on Oct 26, 2014 22:41:02 GMT
With 98.29% counted Dilma has 51.48% 53,503,219. Aécio Neves is on 48.52% 50,424,324. So Dilma has clearly been re-elected.
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