obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 769 
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Post by obsie on May 3, 2022 16:22:07 GMT
Peter Shirlow of the IIS was pushing the line a few months back that the large number of undecided voters in his polls at the time were predominantly stay-at-home unionists (this has been a consistent and ideologically-convenient theme of his over a long period) and that as the number of undecided declined closer to the election, then unionist parties would stage a recovery.
This has not really been borne out by events. It's much more likely that unenthusiastic voters are those disproportionally ideologically uncommitted to either nationalism or unionism. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on May 3, 2022 16:30:46 GMT
Alliance second preferences in the poll tend quite strongly towards nationalism over unionism: SDLP 33.1, Green 22.7, UUP 15.1, SF 15.1, DUP 6.2, PBP 4.8, TUV 1.3, Aontú 1.2 UUP transfers are predominantly unionist but even there there's a sizeable ADUP vote: DUP 32.6, TUV 27.1, All 23.9, SDLP 5.4, Green 3.6, Aontú 1.2 DUP transfers on the other hand strongly favour their main rivals over the TUV: UUP 62.8, TUV 24.3, SDLP 4.4, All 4.4, Green 3.2 TUV transfers tend to go back to their parent party: DUP 54.0, UUP 18.9, Green(!) 18.9, PBP(!!!) 2.7To complete the set: SF - SDLP 52.2, All 17.4, Green 9.4, Aontú 7.4, PBP 7.4, TUV(!) 0.4 SDLP - All 37.8, SF 24.3, Green 14.6, UUP 9.7, Aontú 7.3, PBP 4.8 Green - All 50.0, SF 30.0, PBP 10.0, DUP 5.0 PBP - SF 53.3, Green 20.0, SDLP 6.6, All 6.6, Aontú 6.6Well, it doesn't take a genius, just a professional data analyst, to point out that the TUV sample size is likely to be just 37 and 2.7% represents 1 person, and that 18.9% represents 7 people. Similarly, the sample size for PBP is likely to be just 15 people. |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on May 3, 2022 16:39:41 GMT
If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change. Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation. So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF). EDIT: Oops, clearly should have included Greens, Aontu and PBP in that. Presumably Greens and PBP are both listed as "other?" |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 9,867
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Post by Khunanup on May 3, 2022 16:57:51 GMT
If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change. Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation. So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF). EDIT: Oops, clearly should have included Greens, Aontu and PBP in that. Presumably Greens and PBP are both listed as "other?"Yes they are. |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 2,797
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Post by YL on May 3, 2022 16:58:08 GMT
If "other" became the second largest (or largest) designation, I thinks matters change. Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation. So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF). There's then a later bit which says that if the largest party isn't of the largest designation then the largest party get FM, and the largest party of the largest designation get DFM. This is why Sinn Féin are seen as likely to get FM, because they do if they're the largest party even if Unionists are still the largest designation. See section 16A and section 16C of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 as amended. The case where the largest party isn't of the largest designation is 16C(6). I don't know why it's written like this; presumably it's something to do with the amendments after the St Andrews Agreement changing the rules. Greens and PBP are "Other", yes. I assume Aontú would be Nationalist in the unlikely event of them getting anyone elected. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 769
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Post by obsie on May 3, 2022 19:33:49 GMT
Alliance second preferences in the poll tend quite strongly towards nationalism over unionism: SDLP 33.1, Green 22.7, UUP 15.1, SF 15.1, DUP 6.2, PBP 4.8, TUV 1.3, Aontú 1.2 UUP transfers are predominantly unionist but even there there's a sizeable ADUP vote: DUP 32.6, TUV 27.1, All 23.9, SDLP 5.4, Green 3.6, Aontú 1.2 DUP transfers on the other hand strongly favour their main rivals over the TUV: UUP 62.8, TUV 24.3, SDLP 4.4, All 4.4, Green 3.2 TUV transfers tend to go back to their parent party: DUP 54.0, UUP 18.9, Green(!) 18.9, PBP(!!!) 2.7To complete the set: SF - SDLP 52.2, All 17.4, Green 9.4, Aontú 7.4, PBP 7.4, TUV(!) 0.4 SDLP - All 37.8, SF 24.3, Green 14.6, UUP 9.7, Aontú 7.3, PBP 4.8 Green - All 50.0, SF 30.0, PBP 10.0, DUP 5.0 PBP - SF 53.3, Green 20.0, SDLP 6.6, All 6.6, Aontú 6.6Well, it doesn't take a genius, just a professional data analyst, to point out that the TUV sample size is likely to be just 37 and 2.7% represents 1 person, and that 18.9% represents 7 people. Similarly, the sample size for PBP is likely to be just 15 people. Oh, I know but a whole seven TUV -> Green voters is a bit of a stretch. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 769
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Post by obsie on May 3, 2022 19:42:29 GMT
Yes, relying on wikipedia (dubious, I know, but until someone corrects me...) the respective nominations for FM and DFM go respectively to the largest party (measured by MLAs) of the largest designation and the largest party of the second largest designation. So to get into contention Alliance would need to win more MLAs than either SF + SDLP or DUP + UUP + TUV. (I'm presuming that e.g. UUP or SDLP would not re-designate as "other", though if both of them did simultaneously I would probably die laughing at the reaction of both DUP and SF). There's then a later bit which says that if the largest party isn't of the largest designation then the largest party get FM, and the largest party of the largest designation get DFM. This is why Sinn Féin are seen as likely to get FM, because they do if they're the largest party even if Unionists are still the largest designation. See section 16A and section 16C of the Northern Ireland Act 1998 as amended. The case where the largest party isn't of the largest designation is 16C(6). I don't know why it's written like this; presumably it's something to do with the amendments after the St Andrews Agreement changing the rules. Greens and PBP are "Other", yes. I assume Aontú would be Nationalist in the unlikely event of them getting anyone elected. PBP/SWP are "other" but officially pro-UI whereas the other two are uncommitted. |
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Post by Cú Chulainn on May 3, 2022 23:00:27 GMT
Latest NI leader's debate
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Post by andrew111 on May 4, 2022 9:45:22 GMT
Latest NI leader's debate That is a real hammering for Donaldson compared to everyone else including Beattie |
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 4,296
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Post by CatholicLeft on May 4, 2022 12:03:11 GMT
Latest NI leader's debate That is a real hammering for Donaldson compared to everyone else including Beattie It is but, again, we need to take into account that it was conducted by a politically engaged panel What effect it has on those less engaged but going to vote is what will be interesting. |
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