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Post by BucksDucks on Sept 2, 2019 19:51:02 GMT
An encouraging poll for Alliance, the fewer SF and DUP seats the better. Here's the seat prediction that was done in collaboration between LucidTalks and Electoral Calculus: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernireland.htmlIndividual seat predictions here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.htmlAs iain says it shows Alliance winning Belfast South and very close in Belfast East and South Antrim. They'd also be less than 10% behind in East Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2019 19:56:47 GMT
Its great they finally got a northern Ireland constituency break down
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 9,867
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Post by Khunanup on Sept 2, 2019 23:45:27 GMT
An encouraging poll for Alliance, the fewer SF and DUP seats the better. Here's the seat prediction that was done in collaboration between LucidTalks and Electoral Calculus: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernireland.htmlIndividual seat predictions here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.htmlAs iain says it shows Alliance winning Belfast South and very close in Belfast East and South Antrim. They'd also be less than 10% behind in East Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford. Ah, it's Baxter, no wonder the prediction's bollox. |
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Sept 6, 2019 13:18:34 GMT
An encouraging poll for Alliance, the fewer SF and DUP seats the better. Here's the seat prediction that was done in collaboration between LucidTalks and Electoral Calculus: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernireland.htmlIndividual seat predictions here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.htmlAs iain says it shows Alliance winning Belfast South and very close in Belfast East and South Antrim. They'd also be less than 10% behind in East Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford. Ah, it's Baxter, no wonder the prediction's bollox. Alliance are not going to take 15% in Fermanagh South Tyrone or 16% in Mid Ulster. The SDLP are not going to collapse in Foyle or SF fall back in Belfast North.
The individual ward projections (the DUP winning Falls, SF within a hair's breadth of outpolling the DUP in Shankill) are hilarious. (Edit: I missed SF sweeping Ballysillan - that Unionist Outreach strategy is obviously working wonders.)
The most likely seats to change hands if anti-hard Brexit voters get their act together are Belfast South (DUP to Alliance, very outside chance of SDLP), Foyle (SF to SDLP), Belfast East (DUP to Alliance), Belfast North (DUP to SF), roughly in decreasing order of likelihood. Alliance will do well in the other seats around Belfast but unfortunately are unlikely to unseat Sammy & Co.
There is a risk of an Alliance surge in the wrong places undermining Sylvia Hermon in North Down to the benefit of the DUP or (less likely) allowing Tom Elliott (who would be as obtuse on the issue as any DUPer) back in in Fermanagh South Tyrone.
(Edit: And for the benefit of any pearl-clutching Lib Dem or Labour supporters, an empty seat in the Commons for Belfast North or FST is more useful to you than having it occupied by a hard Brexiteer DUP or UUP supporter - most UUPers may be relatively soft Brexiteers but Tom Elliott isn't.)
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,336
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Post by clyde1998 on Jan 22, 2022 11:29:03 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%).
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Post by relique on Jan 22, 2022 12:19:53 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%). Not so bad for the unionists. If transfers are not desperately bad, this would leave them with the most numerous side and the first minister position. SF would need a high Alliance vote siphoning the soft unionist vote to get the first minister position, and bad unionist transfers. |
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Post by jollyroger93 on Jan 22, 2022 14:23:20 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%). I expect the Alliance and TUV votes to get squeeze by UUP and DUP. |
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Post by seanryanj on Jan 22, 2022 17:21:43 GMT
I wonder if that tuv number is a bit high
I would not have guessed that 12 percent of people knew the name of the party. The Alliance vote should be interesting they only got 8 percent last time so they would be in a good position at even 12 percent a 50% increase and transfer friendly. The dup looks to be in a bad place and I read somewhere that they are expecting retirements so one can see why the wanted mps to run.
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obsie
Non-Aligned
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Post by obsie on Jan 23, 2022 3:17:08 GMT
Oth 7%: (Grn 3%, PBP 1%, Oth 3%). I expect the Alliance and TUV votes to get squeeze by UUP and DUP. TUV by DUP, perhaps, although alienation may be enough that a considerable numbers of their votes will just exhaust on elimination and not transfer.
This is, however, not your father's Alliance Party - a middle-class coalition of ecumenically-minded churchgoing Protestants and status-quo supporting Catholics with tactical Nationalist support in south Antrim, north Down and the nicer Belfast suburbs. The party now presents itself as a "progressive" non-sectarian alternative appealing to the middle ground tired of the usual bickering and pro-change (ironically enough, this same "change" vote is a major factor in SF's surge in the republic) and attitudinal surveys have shown a plurality of Alliance support now being pro-UI. I'm not entirely sure that the party leadership itself has fully internalized that change.
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Jan 23, 2022 14:28:26 GMT
Will the TUV even run candidates in every seat? I don’t think they ever have before.
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Post by MeirionGwril on Feb 14, 2022 8:48:14 GMT
'Poll puts Sinn Féin on course to be largest Stormont party'
Sinn Féin is on course to become the largest party at Stormont after the May 5 Assembly elections, according to a new opinion poll.
The Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool/The Irish News survey puts Sinn Féin at 23.2% of first preference votes among decided voters, well ahead of the DUP on 19.4%.
The poll shows the Alliance Party emerging as the third force in the Assembly with 15.6%, ahead of the Ulster Unionists on 14%, the SDLP on 9.9%, the TUV on 6.4% and the Green Party on 6.3%.
If the results were replicated in the Stormont election in 11 weeks’ time, it would put Michelle O’Neill on course to become first minister, although neither of the main unionist parties have yet indicated if they would nominate for the role of deputy first minister in the event of Sinn Féin becoming the largest party.
The poll also shows that little more than one in 10 unionists regard the Northern Ireland Protocol as the most important issue in the election.
Just 6.7% of all respondents said the post-Brexit trade arrangements were their biggest concern, with unionists (11.7%) roughly four times more likely to regard it as the most important issue compared to nationalists (3%).
The DUP withdrew Paul Givan as first minister in protest at the protocol and have demanded that the UK Government scrap the Irish Sea border.
But the opinion poll indicates that health is a bigger priority among unionists with 29.6% indicating it was their biggest concern, while 22.9% said the economy and 17% cited Covid recovery as the highest priority.
Nationalists polled also regard health (41.5%), the economy (22.5%) and Covid recovery (11.9%) as the most important issues.
The poll also shows that one in five voters do not know who they will vote for at the Assembly elections and 11.9% of those surveyed said they will not vote.
The Institute of Irish Studies director, Professor Peter Shirlow, told the Irish News: “The majority of those who are as yet undecided are either unionists or in the middle ground, which suggests they have been influenced by recent events.
“The survey began amid the fallout from (Ulster Unionist leader) Doug Beattie’s Twitter controversy and continued through Paul Givan’s resignation – it’s very possible these two factors had a bearing on people’s hesitancy.”
Prof Shirlow said the proportion of nationalists who had yet to make up their mind was comparatively small.
“We know that this group of undecideds tends to be pro-union and socially liberal, so it would appear to be a battle between the middle ground and elements of political unionism for that vote.”
The Institute of Irish Studies University of Liverpool study in conjunction with The Irish News was conducted by Social Market Research Belfast from a sample of 1,002 people between January 25 and February 7. Margin of error: 3.1 per cent +/-.
From Irish Examiner, 14/02/2022
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obsie
Non-Aligned
Posts: 769
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Post by obsie on Feb 15, 2022 8:00:02 GMT
The Institute of Irish Studies director, Professor Peter Shirlow, told the Irish News: “The majority of those who are as yet undecided are either unionists or in the middle ground, which suggests they have been influenced by recent events. “The survey began amid the fallout from (Ulster Unionist leader) Doug Beattie’s Twitter controversy and continued through Paul Givan’s resignation – it’s very possible these two factors had a bearing on people’s hesitancy.” Prof Shirlow said the proportion of nationalists who had yet to make up their mind was comparatively small. “We know that this group of undecideds tends to be pro-union and socially liberal, so it would appear to be a battle between the middle ground and elements of political unionism for that vote.” What I've seen from their own data suggests that the undecideds are predominantly agnostic on the issue rather than pro-union, so I'm not convinced by Shirlow's editorializing here which happily coincides with his own preferred politics. |
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Post by redtony on Feb 15, 2022 21:03:16 GMT
There must be a chance that alliance or the UUF willl come second to SF which will be intersting Id alliand comes second to SF would cause problems under the Good Friday agreement on Power sharing.
But I would saygood problems
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,336
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Post by clyde1998 on Feb 16, 2022 1:09:16 GMT
There must be a chance that alliance or the UUF willl come second to SF which will be intersting Id alliand comes second to SF would cause problems under the Good Friday agreement on Power sharing. But I would saygood problems Yes - it's entirely possible for the DUP to finish fourth if the poll's suggestions about undecided voters are true. Transfers will be very important though; I don't recall seeing a poll asking about second preferences for this election. Unfortunately, most of the easily accessible data on transfers in 2017 include intra-party transfers (eg. from a DUP candidate to another DUP candidate) - however there was a push in 2017 for UUP voters to second preference the SDLP and vice-versa. This suggests the UUP received the largest amount of SDLP transfers, while the SDLP and Alliance won more transfers combined than the DUP did from UUP first preference voters. |
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Post by andrew111 on Feb 16, 2022 12:54:16 GMT
There must be a chance that alliance or the UUF willl come second to SF which will be intersting Id alliand comes second to SF would cause problems under the Good Friday agreement on Power sharing. But I would saygood problems Yes - it's entirely possible for the DUP to finish fourth if the poll's suggestions about undecided voters are true. Transfers will be very important though; I don't recall seeing a poll asking about second preferences for this election. Unfortunately, most of the easily accessible data on transfers in 2017 include intra-party transfers (eg. from a DUP candidate to another DUP candidate) - however there was a push in 2017 for UUP voters to second preference the SDLP and vice-versa. This suggests the UUP received the largest amount of SDLP transfers, while the SDLP and Alliance won more transfers combined than the DUP did from UUP first preference voters. Polls on the NI assembly should routinely ask people to rank the Parties in order. Lower preferences than second can easily make a difference, but modelling that is quite complicated. |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,336
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Post by clyde1998 on Mar 28, 2022 19:15:53 GMT
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Post by No Offence Alan on Mar 28, 2022 19:43:34 GMT
In terms of quotas per constituency, that averages out roughly as: SF -0.1 quota, DUP -0.5 quota, APNI +0.4, UUP 0, SDLP -0.1, TUV +0.4 compared to 2017 (usual caveat about rounding). |
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CatholicLeft
Co-operative Party
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Apr 4, 2022 11:31:21 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters:
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Post by matureleft on Apr 4, 2022 14:36:20 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters: That poll also asked about the key issues. It seems that the Protocol isn't the main concern even among Unionists. To Unionists 21% see that as the main issue as against 30% for the economy and 25% for health. Only 2% of Nationalists ranked it as their main concern. That suggests that the DUP emphasis hasn't been particularly effective so far (though its salience among Unionists has increased since the question was last asked). |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,336
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Post by clyde1998 on Apr 4, 2022 15:38:07 GMT
I leave this here, though I am not necessarily convinced by the pollsters: I'm not convinced by them either, however that might partially come down to LucidTalk polling more people than even a GB poll would - which minimises the risk of a certain demographic having a outlying result - and LucidTalk's prior accuracy. That being said compared to the last LucidTalk poll, which was conducted at basically the same time, only the TUV and Greens are more than a single percentage point different. This poll also includes a constitutional question (which I'd argue is not an optimal question): I would vote for a united Ireland tomorrowAgree 30.0% Disagree 45.3% Neither 18.7% Don't know 6.0% This poll does also ask about second preferences (which due to the small sample size, of 1,000, should be taken with a pinch of salt - especially for the smaller parties): The top row shows the first preferences
| DUP | SF | SDLP | UUP | APNI | TUV | Grn | PBP | | DUP | X | 2.0% | 5.3% | 17.0% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | SF | 0.7% | X | 15.8% | 0.0% | 9.2% | 2.5% | 18.8% | 26.7% | | SDLP | 6.6% | 49.3% | X | 7.0% | 26.6% | 2.5% | 3.1% | 20.0% | | UUP | 49.7% | 2.5% | 10.5% | X | 16.5% | 20.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | | APNI | 4.6% | 13.4% | 43.4% | 31.0% | X | 0.0% | 46.9% | 0.0% | | TUV | 21.2% | 1.0% | 2.6% | 22.0% | 1.8% | X | 0.0% | 0.0% | | Grn | 2.0% | 10.9% | 1.3% | 2.0% | 18.3% | 2.5% | X | 20.0% | | PBP | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.6% | 3.0% | 5.5% | 0.0% | 9.4% | X | | Aontu | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | Con | 0.7% | 1.0% | 1.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0%
| | DK | 6.0% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 17.4% | 17.5% | 9.4% | 13.3% | | None | 8.6% | 4.5% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 0.9% | 15.0% | 6.3% | 20.0% |
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