Northern Ireland Polls

[BucksDucks]

An encouraging poll for Alliance, the fewer SF and DUP seats the better.

Here's the seat prediction that was done in collaboration between LucidTalks and Electoral Calculus: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernireland.html

Individual seat predictions here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.html

As iain says it shows Alliance winning Belfast South and very close in Belfast East and South Antrim. They'd also be less than 10% behind in East Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford.

[Deleted]

Its great they finally got a northern Ireland constituency break down

[Khunanup]

Sept 2, 2019 19:51:02 GMT BucksDucks said:

An encouraging poll for Alliance, the fewer SF and DUP seats the better.

Here's the seat prediction that was done in collaboration between LucidTalks and Electoral Calculus: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernireland.html

Individual seat predictions here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.html

As iain says it shows Alliance winning Belfast South and very close in Belfast East and South Antrim. They'd also be less than 10% behind in East Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford.

Ah, it's Baxter, no wonder the prediction's bollox.

[obsie]

Sept 2, 2019 23:45:27 GMT Khunanup said:

Sept 2, 2019 19:51:02 GMT BucksDucks said:

An encouraging poll for Alliance, the fewer SF and DUP seats the better.

Here's the seat prediction that was done in collaboration between LucidTalks and Electoral Calculus: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/northernireland.html

Individual seat predictions here: www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/conlist_ni.html

As iain says it shows Alliance winning Belfast South and very close in Belfast East and South Antrim. They'd also be less than 10% behind in East Antrim, Lagan Valley and Strangford.

Ah, it's Baxter, no wonder the prediction's bollox.

Alliance are not going to take 15% in Fermanagh South Tyrone or 16% in Mid Ulster. The SDLP are not going to collapse in Foyle or SF fall back in Belfast North.

The individual ward projections (the DUP winning Falls, SF within a hair's breadth of outpolling the DUP in Shankill) are hilarious. (Edit: I missed SF sweeping Ballysillan - that Unionist Outreach strategy is obviously working wonders.)

The most likely seats to change hands if anti-hard Brexit voters get their act together are Belfast South (DUP to Alliance, very outside chance of SDLP), Foyle (SF to SDLP), Belfast East (DUP to Alliance), Belfast North (DUP to SF), roughly in decreasing order of likelihood. Alliance will do well in the other seats around Belfast but unfortunately are unlikely to unseat Sammy & Co.

There is a risk of an Alliance surge in the wrong places undermining Sylvia Hermon in North Down to the benefit of the DUP or (less likely) allowing Tom Elliott (who would be as obtuse on the issue as any DUPer) back in in Fermanagh South Tyrone.

(Edit: And for the benefit of any pearl-clutching Lib Dem or Labour supporters, an empty seat in the Commons for Belfast North or FST is more useful to you than having it occupied by a hard Brexiteer DUP or UUP supporter - most UUPers may be relatively soft Brexiteers but Tom Elliott isn't.)