By-elections - 19th June 2014

[greatkingrat]

EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Soham South (Independent died)

2011 - Con 745/578/547, Ind 598/590, LD 397/300, Lab 335
2007 - Con 577/525/463, LD 412/397/347, Ind 351/349/263
2003 - Con 486/474/398, LD 348/251/135, Lab 236, Ind 227

Daniel DIVINE (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Gerard HOBBS (Independent)
Fiona ROSS (Labour Party Candidate)
Hamish ROSS (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Charles WARNER (Liberal Democrats)
Geoffrey WOOLLARD (Independent)

STRATFORD-ON-AVON - Southam (Conservative resigned)

2014 - Con 713, UKIP 515, Lab 399, Grn 118
2012 - Con 757, Lab 579, LD 120
2011 - Con 1162, Lab 772, LD 254
2010 - Con 1631, LD 977, Lab 900
2008 - Con 853, Lab 404, LD 380
2007 - Con 975, Lab 555, LD 187

Emily BLELOCH (UK Independence Party (UKIP))
Tony BROMWICH (The Conservative Party Candidate)
Bransby THOMAS (The Labour Party Candidate)

[David Ashforth]

	Ward maps	Census maps
EAST CAMBRIDGESHIRE - Soham South	link	link
STRATFORD-ON-AVON - Southam	link	link

[Ben Walker]

Southam result:
CON 493 42.9% +2.0%
LAB 398 34.6% +11.7%
UKIP 259 22.5% -7.0%

[marksenior]

No figures but Conservatives have won Soham South

[marksenior]

Con 363 UKIP 201 Lib Dem 191 Ind Woollard 148 Ind Hobbs 80 Lab 71

[middleenglander]

East Cambridgeshire, Soham South - Conservative gain from Independent

Party	2014 votes	2014 share	since 2011 "top"	since 2011 "average"	since 2007 "top"	since 2007 "average"
Conservative	363	34.4%	-1.5%	+1.6%	-8.6%	-8.0%
UKIP	201	19.1%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Liberal Democrat	191	18.1%	-1.0%	-0.2%	-12.6%	-13.3%
Independent Woollard	148	14.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Independent Hobbs	80	7.6%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Labour	71	6.7%	-9.4%	-10.9%	from nowhere	from nowhere
Previous Independents			-28.8%	-31.2%	-26.2%	-26.1%
Total votes	1,054		51%	55%	79%	86%

Swing not particularly meaningful

Stratford-on-Avon, Southam - Conservative hold although previous councillor was sitting as an Independent

Party	2014 B votes	2014 B share	since 2014	since 2012	since 2011	since 2010
Conservative	493	42.9%	+2.0%	-9.1%	-10.2%	-3.6%
Labour	398	34.6%	+11.7%	-5.2%	-0.7%	+9.0%
UKIP	259	22.5%	-7.0%	from nowhere	from nowhere	from nowhere
Green			-6.8%
Liberal Democrat				-8.2%	-11.6%	-27.9%
Total votes	1,150		66%	79%	53%	33%

Swing Conservative to Labour ~5% since May (as UKIP drops from 2nd to 3rd), 2% since 2012, ~5% since 2011 and ~6% since 2010

[andrewp]

2 not bad results for the Conservatives this week. In Cambridgeshire, possibly helped by having a range of opposition candidates.

[East Anglian Lefty]

Possibly, but I suspect they'd have taken the ward anyway. The Labour and UKIP candidates were from outside of town and wouldn't have got many second preferences, the combined total of the two independents would barely have got them second and I don't see any reason to believe the Lib Dem candidate had stronger local credentials than the Tory.