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Post by Arthur Figgis on May 22, 2014 8:12:59 GMT
C gain Newham
L gain Westminster
LD gain Wandsworth
UKIP gain Tower Hamlets
All others NOC, with a SNP/DUP administration.
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Post by dizz on May 22, 2014 19:30:27 GMT
Labour control: Barking & Dagenham, Brent, Camden, Ealing, Enfield, Greenwich, Hackney, Haringey, Hounslow, Islington, Lambeth, Lewisham, Newham, Southwark, Tower Hamlets Waltham Forest (16) plus Croydon, Harrow, Merton, Redbridge for total of 20.
Conservative control: Barnet, Bexley, Bromley, Hammersmith & Fulham, Hillingdon, Kensington & Chelsea, Wandsworth, Westminster(8)
Lib Dem control: Kingston, Richmond, Sutton
NOC: Havering
Mayors: Pipe, Wales, Bullock, Rahman
And for fun:
Most overall gains: Conservative - Sutton, Labour - Brent, Lib Dem - Richmond
Most overall losses: Conservative: Havering, Labour Barking & Dagenham, Lib Dem - Brent
Trickiest ones Rahman & Richmond & Kingston. Labour should come fairly close in Barnet & (perhaps) H&F though not close enough. I fancy the LD's to go down to 0 or 1 in Barnet & 3 or 4 in Islington.
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Post by dizz on May 26, 2014 22:27:24 GMT
Although we're still waiting to see if Tower Hamlets goes Lab or is NOC (I know THF is another possibility but it seems unlikely as we hear on the grapevine that they are unlikely to get both seats in Bromley South), of the 31 Councils & 4 Mayoral declarations the scores are:
mrtoad: 33 (out of 35) (wrong on Barnet & H&F)
kevinlarkin: 32 (wrong on Richmond, H&F & Biggs)
joe: 33 (wrong on Harrow & H&F)
dizz: 32 (wrong on Richmond, Sutton & H&F).
Helpfully, joe (and I) have gone for Lab control in TH whilst kevinlarkin & mrtoad did not so if Lab wins then joe will come out top whereas if it's NOC (looking more likely) then mrtoad takes the bacon.
LondonCommunications got H&F & Redbridge wrong & ducked predictions in Harrow & Croydon so I make them last!
Will do the most gains etc bit tomorrow.
Cheers.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on May 26, 2014 23:31:02 GMT
You didn't do mine. How did London Communications get Redbridge wrong?
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Post by dizz on May 27, 2014 22:22:20 GMT
You didn't do mine. How did London Communications get Redbridge wrong? I didn't see yours as a full prediction but, as a variation to kevin's, it also comes out as 32 (assuming you copied kevin's Mayoral predictions i.e. wrong on H&F, Biggs & Harrow). In the London boroughs and on crude number changes, Lab did best in Brent (+16) and worst in Tower Hamlets (-18/21 on the 41 last time); Con did best in Richmond (+9) and worst in neighbouring Hounslow (-14) LD's did best in Sutton (+2) and worst in Brent (-16). |
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Post by dizz on May 27, 2014 22:37:41 GMT
Of the above, mrtoad & dizz got two right (mrtoad was right with respect to both the Lab predictions & dizz with respect to both the Brent predictions) & kevinlarkin got 1 right (the Tower Hamlets' one) & joe got none right.
Final result to be declared when the Tower Hamlets' deferred election come through….
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Post by dizz on Jul 5, 2014 9:39:18 GMT
With Tower Hamlets now going NOC of the 32 Councils & 4 Mayoral declarations the scores are:
mrtoad: 34 (out of 36) (wrong on Barnet & H&F)
kevinlarkin: 33 (wrong on Richmond, H&F & Biggs)
joe: 33 (wrong on Tower Hamlets, Harrow & H&F)
dizz: 32 (wrong on Tower Hamlets, Richmond, Kingston & H&F).
So mrtoad wins overall.
I'd be in favour of doing one for Lab targets seats 7 Lib Dem defences next year
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